Eh, well, I was going to do this sometime tomorrow but I'm currently unsure what time I will be available.
Of everyone in the game, I feel the most confident that Hado is mafia right now. In the beginning stages of this game I was persuaded by his case. I looked at the guides online he referenced, and what he was saying seemed consistent. I started with a strong town reading, but was becoming suspicious of him throughout the last round. I wanted to keep it to myself and assume he was town due to his pro-town seeming activity until I could test my suspicions.
I decided to go with his ESC read and give him the benefit of the doubt as either way I didn’t see the vote going any other way, and it seemed beneficial:
A) ESC flips red and I know that Hado is green, and probably Redbaron too, which gives us a strong position this round.
B) ESC flips green, and I have strong reason to suspect Hado as being mafia.
Premise:
— He has admitted to having the most experience at this game. He knows what a mafia player typically does in experienced games, and has engineered his persona around the opposite, so that he can lead town down the wrong road at every juncture, which he has so far.
— He has used this at every point to define what good town play is (and what good mafia play is), so he can easily align it with his targets that don’t meet that standard and who he knows to be town. There's no reason to think we would necessarily play this like the guidelines on our first playthrough, and many including confirmed town ESC have validated this.
-- If he gets it wrong he can easily justify it on the standards he defines, go on to lead the next lynch, get it wrong, and easily do the same thing ad infinitum. If he's mafia, he’s been playing the game so he’ll appear to be the last town standing and can fully justify it, and just say he’s been set up. If he is mafia this makes him incredibly dangerous.
— Despite having the most experience, and coming across as the most competent player, he has been incorrect twice and led the lynch on two innocent townies. This is suspiciously out of synch with his confidence and experience, and I think, like others said last round, its because he could be playing a very clever mafia ruse.
— He has actively dominated this whole game, putting out endless content from post #1, continuously shifting position and over-complexifying the thread to make it impossible to keep up with. Me and others have said how frustrating it makes it to play this game (I almost gave up the game in the last round, in honesty). He’s tried to justify it as pro-town, but it could also be a ruse to bully everyone into playing the game by his narrative that is, either way, clearly losing us the game right now. It also makes it a lot harder to pin who his team-mates are when we confirm him red.
— He then goes on to pin those he bullied into voting his way as mafia.
— Him and RB play strategy games together frequently. He knew he’d be the biggest threat (and said so in his very first vote on RB) and so focused on winning him over, by playing in such a way that conforms to the standards of good town in the guides that RB would respect. He can then rope an influential player into voting on his false reads, and have the other most active poster go along with his play, which by sheer volume is guaranteed to guide town action on his deliberately false reads.