Forum Mafia Game #1

[redbaron]

ESC, you still haven't responded to this post.

Quit avoiding discussion.

 

[EyeSeeCold]

I have nothing to say to either of you at this moment. I don't need to. You already voted for me right?

Okay, let's go. Let the other votes for me roll in.

 

[redbaron]

I suggest everyone does it. This is classic scum move, to put the ball in Town's court and see if they have the conviction to do it. The only other alternative is that to give up as Town, just to spite everyone when he flips green.

Best case: He's scum and playing a gambit because he's cornered
Worst case: He's a townie that's given up

 

[Hadoblado]

I haven't actually voted for you ESC.

If you're town, you'd let us go after Puffy instead of killing you, since you wouldn't know whether Puffy was scum or not, but you'd know you're town. Instead, you're making this all about you, because you know one of you is gonna die and Puffy has more status so you're prefer it be you.

I will vote you and kill you. Just not if I can get Puffy instead.

 

[Hadoblado]

haha that good feel when you realise Puffy can't bus ESC because ESC was one of his top town reads for no reason.

Puffy tell me when you round so we can throw down son!

 

[Ex-User (11125)]

Ok esc let's make a deal. Since you, sinny and ruminator don't look like you're ever going to change your minds, then I will lend you my vote only on the condition that you three give me your word that, if hado turns out to be town, next to go will be either esc or puffy.
sounds fair?

 

[Hadoblado]

I want both.

I want one and then the other. Starting with Puffy. Then I'll accept the deal too.

 

[Hadoblado]

Wait.

Actually I'm not sure I will. I gotta think about this.

 

[EyeSeeCold]

Zerk if that's your deal I would rather you vote me out now.


My read on Puffy isn't certain at this moment. Save us from extra NKs and vindicate sinny and ruminator by voting for me.

 

[Hadoblado]

Nope, fuck that. I'm not on board for that. Them first, then me.

See here:
Day one: rook, cheeseum, Helvete
Day two: Hadoblado, redbaron
Day three: Puffy, zerkalo
Day four: ESC, Nebulous
Day five: artsu, sinny, ruminator, Happy are left

Essentially, if you lynch me, it means day five we're going to have artsu, sinny, ruminator, and Happy. Which is 3v1. All mafia will have to do is mislynch once, then NK, and it's 1v1. Since it's even, there can't be a majority, and there will be a no-lynch day six followed by an NK that night.

None of those four have shown that they can read mafia well enough for me to be comfortable trading my current situation for that situation.

But I'm happy to by lynched if we kill Puffy first, and if he doesn't spring red I'm next on the block no questions asked.

 

[Ex-User (11125)]

@esc Hah you're just saying that bc you know we won't be able to get 6 votes for you, even if you vote for yourself

 

[redbaron]

I'm not voting to lynch Puffy, my read on him isn't as strong as either Ruminator or ESC. Build me a case.

 

[EyeSeeCold]

@esc Hah you're just saying that bc you know we won't be able to get 6 votes for you, even if you vote for yourself

Vote EyeSeeCold

 

[Hadoblado]

I'm playing ball here Zerkalo. Kill Puffy then me. I'm not martyring blindly, that shit's stupid. I don't need to trade in my life for one last kill if I'm scum, because I was most likely going to survive this lynch if I don't make a deal.

As town, I'm dead certain of this read, and the only objective for me left is to convince you guys enough that we can win the game. I will risk my life for that, but I won't throw it away on the chance that these guys are killed after me, because without me here, and with an NK on RB tonight, town could very well forseeably cave to their incessant cockroaching.

 

[Ex-User (11125)]

(Follow up to my previous post) Well unless happy votes idk

 

[redbaron]

@esc Hah you're just saying that bc you know we won't be able to get 6 votes for you, even if you vote for yourself

This is all the more reason to call the bluff.

If we legitimately do everything in our power to get ESC lynched and it fails - we know 1 of 2 things:

1. He's Town and not all Town voted to lynch him.
2. He's mafia.

You can't let people make a gambit like that, "okay, lynch me - you'll see!" and not punish them for it. It doesn't serve Town purpose to allow that as a gambit. If people can just play that card and people back down because they're scared of being wrong - then every mafia member is going to keep playing that card until someone calls a bluff.

ESC is either terrible town or he's mafia.

 

[Ex-User (11125)]

Hado puffy is not happening, RB won't vote for some reason. Idk about happy...and sinny, rumi and esc are convinced ure mafia

 

[Hadoblado]

You're right, without RB it's not happening without mafia being on the vote (we need 6, there's 10 people, sinny won't help).

Okay RB. I'm pretty worn out atm, so I'm not going to plunge his filter like I did cheeseum, but I don't think that will be necessary to convince you.

Off the top of my head the rest comes down to:

1) - His martyrdom was scummy as fuuuck. Just like ESC's is now. When you're town and you're committed to winning, you don't want to die. The only reason you offer up your throat is because you're bluffing people away. Unfortunately, apparently INTPs love this kind of drama and towners have been doing it too (cheeseum and neb). But it's not the same. Look at the frustration of cheeseum, or the "hey guys I'm no threat" of neb. Both ESC and Puffy are desparately trying to signal each other with martyring that it's okay for them to be bussed, because they think that's the only way they're getting out of this. A town puffy knows that puffy is town. Why the fuck on earth would someone as not retarded as puffy ever want to get lynched knowing that it would be at the hands of one of his best town reads (me, which he's repeated multiple times). This scenario would be a town Puffy deliberately killing himself with a mislynch, and then his best read with a mislynch, while paying the time for two additional PKs from mafia. That would be utterly the fuck dumb as pigshit stupid. He's not stupid, you know him.

2) - He put ESC as a town read up there with RB and I. Which is retarded. RB you know this. You know Puffy would never think that ESC is confirmed town anywhere near the same level we are if he was genuinely searching.

3) - He's positioned himself as advisor. Which is what I've done. But I've also hunted scum mercilessly. Why does he think he should advise people when this is his first game, and he hasn't established a position of any authority whatsoever? Why has he done this to the exclusion of hunting scum when he understands very well that what town need to do is hunt scum?

4) - He's made a lot of big deals articulating irrelevant things that don't lead to hunting scum. This is because he's thinking in a policy way about scum, in vague theoretical terms. Theory can be applied whether you're town or scum and he knows this. He knows that it's the practice of scum hunting that shows who's town, and yet for some reason doesn't do it. This may sound silly, but when you are mafia, it's really difficult to convincingly hunt scum. You have to think all Bayesian and shit, which take enormous processing power. It sounds easier than it is.

5) - If Puffy isn't mafia, then there were no active scum early in the game. Which is highly improbable. Remember when I said it was Puffy or Zerkalo with the rushed paint job? Well it's not Zerkalo. At the start of the game, the mafia could not communicate with one another. They all understood that they couldn't all be lurkers. As nobody posts, one of them has to stand up and go interact with town some, or mafia will have no influence over the lynch. I don't believe it's possible for all three to independently ignore that pressure and stay lurking that long. I know that everyone else who was posting day is town, so it must be Puffy.

6) - He hasn't done a fucking thing all game. Zero commitment about anything. Town reads on the two most townie players. Town read on ESC who is definitely not town. Town reads are not red reads. He hasn't spotted any scum sign because he's not looking, because we very well know he'd have found some by now if he was looking.

 

[redbaron]

Hado puffy is not happening, RB won't vote for some reason. Idk about happy...and sinny, rumi and esc are convinced ure mafia

It's a guarantee that at a minimum, one of sinny/rumi/esc are mafia.

 

[Hadoblado]

Look at this:

You and Hado are acting as if he's a certain prime target, and the essence of the argument as I'm understanding it seems to be that he's acting like a newbie and you think he's smarter than his current level of play.

My first impression of ESC in relation to this game was his post in the 'forum mafia' thread where he said he felt intimidated by the game (and was probably considering dropping out there). He said this before roles were distributed, and I don't think he's a very devious person to have premeditated or developed a self-conscious strategy from this. This is his first game of mafia, of that I'm confident, and so he technically is a newbie.

It struck me in the first day that he was probably one of the least confident players, and so I was leaning towards forgiving his inactivity and newbish questions as signalling a new, unconfident townsman. I genuinely just felt he was probably overwhelmed by the game. That's why even though in the first round I agreed we should target inactives I gave ESC the lowest priority.

To me, ESC is cautious, conservative, values trust, has a certain moral character that makes deceptive behaviour extremely uncomfortable for him and something he has a strong distaste for in others. In short, he's one of the people who from the start I'd assume isn't particularly suited to this game. While the logic of why lynching makes sense in this game has been demonstrated to me, the idea that ESC couldn't get behind the idea of lynching a potentially innocent person to me is consistent with him as I think he's more inclined to project how he would feel in a real-life scenario into the game as a moral dilemna.

I'm obviously not 100% on this. I will re-read and study this day's posts over for consistency and can write again if needed.
__________________

How does any of this make him green? Puffy knows none of this would make ESC green. ESC has done nothing to look green. At best this makes him hard to read. Puffy knows this too. Puffy is conservative and measured, why would he make this enormous leap that because ESC is difficult to read, he's worth protecting as much as us?

I know you know this, because you're the one that asked the golden question. I'm emphasising it for all to see. You do have a scum read on Puffy from this interaction. I would be surprised if it weren't a big one. Add to that the martyring and lack of town activity and he's toast.

No he's not *more* scum than ESC. That's impossible. But he's both connected to him and very highly scummy. But I have ESC cornered already, because he's not allowed to competently argue without revealing that he was competent all along. Whereas, Puffy could wheedle his way out of things using every option at his command. He hasn't handicapped himself by playing coy.

If Puffy flips red, so very many people are confirmed town for everyone. Zerkalo and Happy. (Well, Happy did move his vote off and on and off or something, but he'd certainly be a stronger green read because he voted Puffy of his own volition when Puffy was truly in danger of getting bandwagoned. Puffy is a productive lynch, a very high priority mafia, and a very reliable mafia kill. This will be chopping off the head of the snake. The other mafia are limp dicks who we can clean up no problem.

 

[Hadoblado]

Despite that instead of going all defensive and shit flinging like everyone else creating greater and greater division, I use the time to assess the situation of the town and write probably among the most pro-town posts on this day so far, proposing a direction that could actually lead to a consensus vote that can rally town together, puts me most at risk and am critiqued as going 'the path of least threat'?

Again, realistically, I have to go sleep now as I have to get up at 6, work a 10 hour day, come back home hours before lynch-time and read through a load of posts of accusations saying how I've not contributed anything to town. What do I do then, respond to those, make a case on someone else, or simply kill myself to make sure the rabble at least does something?

I may as well just hang the noose around my neck right now...

What pro-town post is he talking about? And how is threatening to kill yourself if people don't leave you alone not defensive?

 

[Hadoblado]

While RB and Hado have appeared smart to me in how they’ve played so far, they’re stupid in the one regard that I’d expect them to be if they are town: they’re too proud to let stupid remarks go by and risk friendships (which even with every clever ruse possible is actually necessary to town victory). You’re increasingly alienating ESC and Sinny with your actions who are both still potential townies, and in so doing are dividing the town in two.

He thinks I'm letting pride get in the way when I've had Sinny doggedly voting me all game? Then insulting me? And still I don't vote her, and actively try to control the narrative so as to exclude all attacks on her. Does that seem like I'm so caught up in my pride? Does Puffy with his social grace and perceptiveness see this as me getting caught up in my pride?

I do see him trying to tag townie and ESC together though. Implied reasoning: Sinny is town and is screaming X, ESC is screaming X, therefore, ESC is town. He's trying to bail out ESC without being so direct as to actually stick up for him in any meaningful way.

 

[Happy]

FYI - still here. re-reading entire thread now. You guys talk too much...

 

[Hadoblado]

Soz bud

 

[Hadoblado]

Vote: Puffy

 

[QuickTwist]

Official Vote Count:

1. Hadoblado - 2, ruminator, Sinny91
2. Nebulous - 0
3. Happy - 0
4. Zerkalo - 0
5. ruminator - 0
6. redbaron - 1, Happy
7. Puffy - 3, Puffy, zerkalo, Hadoblado
8. Rook Vanilla Townie
9. Helvete Vanilla Townie
10. Cheeseumpuffs Vanilla Townie
11. Sinny91 - 0
12. EyeSeeCold - 3, redbaron, Nebulous, EyeSeeCold
13. Artsu Tharaz - 1, Artsu Tharaz

Not Voting - 1, Happy

With 10 Alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day ends in ~11hours, 17min

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20160523T18&p0=159&font=cursive

Vote Ruminator

Vote: EyeSeeCold

Vote EyeSeeCold

vote esc

Vote Hado

Vote Hado

I vote Hado

Vote redbaron

VOTE HADO

Hado

Unvote

Unvote redbaron

Vote Puffy

UNVOTE ZERKALO

VOTE ARTSU THARAZ

Unvote Puffy

Vote Puffy

vote EyeSeeCold

Unvote esc

vote puffy

Vote EyeSeeCold

Vote: Puffy

 

[redbaron]

Sigh.

ESC right now is basically the kid at school who takes his ball back if people aren't playing the game to his liking. This can't be a thing that we let mafia legitimately defend themselves with.

FWIW, regardless of whether ESC flips red or green - ruminator and Puffy are my next highest mafia reads, because I'm not reading people based on the shaky idea that they're all colluding together - i'm building individual cases.

Until someone flips red, I'm not going to let myself go down the path of, "X person is probably linked to person Y so therefore guilty by association" because it's far too difficult to read people that way, no matter how good you are at the game and it seems too easy for the mafia to lead Town astray in that manner.

Unless someone flips red and we can confirm that their posts are legitimately all suspicious, I really don't want to go deep into that yet.

 

[Hadoblado]

You've read the guides well

Okay. Ignore everything I've said about collusion.

Why does Puffy think ESC is town?

Why has Puffy done nothing?

Why did Puffy deliberately try to kill two confirmed town (himself and myself) if he was town? Add to that the two free nightkills and that would have been four free town kills from his perspective. For what?

Do you believe it's likely there were no active mafia day one? If not, what other possibilities for active mafia are there?

I am not letting ESC go RB. He's fucking dead. He can't argue shit tomorrow. We're winning here and I'm playing conservative. One of these two is dying, so I'm happy because I know we're getting mafia. But I want the more valuable one. Puffy has slipped up a lot, but as evidenced by your reluctance, he is harder to kill that ESC.

I don't plan on being around tomorrow. I don't want to leave it to chance that you'll let Puffy wriggle out. I know I can trust you to kill ESC when I'm gone though.

 

[redbaron]

There's about 10 hours left, I'll be on at least 2-3 hours before voting. I don't want to play all my cards yet.

 

[redbaron]

The problem with all of this, is that the instigators of this really shouldn't just be you and I.

There's a piece missing right now, so I'm going to have to go back and read through several member's posts again.

 

[Hadoblado]

I'm actually kind of wanting to get a kill before bed time RB. With both of us afk for eight hours town could be led into a mislynch. We've used most of the day. I'd prefer not to risk it if we can help it. I also don't want to give up all my sleep again.

If you absolutely promise me you will gun hard for Puffy in the event of my death, I will give you my vote on ESC. But this is a real promise RB. If you break it you don't get the option of promising me anything in future mafia games. Also I might come to your house and shit on your lawn. Or worse. Give you a lawn.

 

[redbaron]

The problem with all of this, is that the instigators of this really shouldn't just be you and I.

There's a piece missing right now, so I'm going to have to go back and read through several member's posts again.

EBWOP: my point is: I know for a fact that someone reluctant to get on the Puffy-wagon (besides Sinny) is town and I know they're pulling punches. If we're reading Puffy correctly and he's mafia, we don't get a lynch on him here because this confirmed Townie is pulling punches.

If you're right in reading Sinny as Town, we can't get a 6-vote majority on Puffy.

But...I don't really see much choice at this point.

Unvote ESC

Vote Puffy

 

[redbaron]

I'm actually kind of wanting to get a kill before bed time RB. With both of us afk for eight hours town could be led into a mislynch. We've used most of the day. I'd prefer not to risk it if we can help it. I also don't want to give up all my sleep again.

To be honest, I'm not entirely sure you're not mafia - but that's just tin-foil hat thinking. If you turn out to be mafia, I can't really blame myself when there's like 5 people playing an anti-town game.

There's just no way I can differentiate the difference between mafia and persistent anti-town-but-actually-town-behaviour. So fuck it. All in on Puffy and if you turn out to be mafia, I'm not even mad.

Pretty sure if Puffy turns out green you'll die next anyway by way of the tunneling turdwagon regardless.

 

[redbaron]

So fuck it. All in on Puffy and if you turn out to be mafia, I'm not even mad.

EBWOP: not mad at you that is, it'll be the people playing terrible townies.

 

[redbaron]

I'm actually kind of wanting to get a kill before bed time RB.

Not gonna happen, because Nebulous is gone for the time being and her votes currently locked on ESC.

If you and zerkalo switch to ESC right now, he only needs 1 more. Which means we need Happy/Puffy because Sinny/Ruminator/Artzu aren't going to do it.

There's also the issue of Artsu. If Sinny is Town and Artsu is also Town - we can't get a mafia vote even if we want to, because we only acctually have 5 townies willing to vote anyone not named Hadoblado.

You see the dilemma?

 

[Hadoblado]

Pretty sure if Puffy turns out green you'll die next anyway by way of the tunneling turdwagon regardless.

I'll bet my life on it if it will make the lynch happen.

Anyone concerned that I'm a scum trying to manipulate the vote should be glad to have the most influential scum be dead in exchange for Puffy, who they can't possibly hold that strong an allegiance to. If he flips green, I die tomorrow. I can't see how it would ever be useful for mafia to trade their most established double agent for a do-nothing player of average standing, though I'm welcome to any speculation as to why you think a scum hado would trade his own life this way.

The only reason a town would not vote for Puffy is if they fear that I am both town and deadly wrong about Puffy for some reason.

 

[redbaron]

It doesn't really matter if you're right tbh. Our only option at this point is to go all-in and hope we don't lose because of a bunch of terrible/lurking townies.

 

[Hadoblado]

Hmmm. Fuck.

Happy's online. Zerkalo's not. I would switch right now if it would secure lynch.

 

[redbaron]

Hmmm. Fuck.

Happy's online. Zerkalo's not. I would switch right now if it would secure lynch.

Our only option at this point is to go all-in and hope we don't lose because of a bunch of terrible/lurking townies.

 

[Hadoblado]

Everyone's offline/invis except Happy.

 

[Nebulous]

Definite Scum: ESC, Puffy
Almost definite scum: Ruminator
Middling: Happy (I hope to read him better shortly), artsu,
Confirmed Town: Sinny, RB, Hado, zerkalo, neb

Usually it's bad to list like this, but I'm working with very high confidence in my reads, and at this point think I can end the game if I can manage to convince town.

i.e. if they kill me now, the first three people on this list die while we still have useful town alive, so there will be at most one mafia between artsu and happy remaining, who I trust a mixture of you, neb, and zerk to catch. There isn't much wiggle room for them.

It's pretty deterministic.

I agree with you for the most part.

Almost Definite Scum: ESC, Puffy
Almost almost definite scum: Ruminator
Middling: Happy, artsu, Hado
Confirmed Town: Sinny, RB, zerkalo, neb

 

[Hadoblado]

Neb! Hurray! <3

We're trying to get a lynch now instead of later, so that ESC and Puffy can't retract their votes. You will make five on Puffy, and if Happy hops on before bed that will be a six majority.

 

[Hadoblado]

It's underhanded, but they both tried to bluff their way out of a lynch be welcoming it with self-voting.
They thought we couldn't rally the people to call their bluff, but we actually do have a chance now.

 

[redbaron]

Can I ask, why are we calling Sinny confirmed town though?

Are we really just chalking it up to her being too dumb to trick anyone?

 

[Hadoblado]

That's a can of worms best left unopined.

 

[Hadoblado]

Any concern about Sinny is definitely trumped by the more immediate ESC and Puffy. If I'm alive tomorrow I'll go back and reevaluate. But atm, it's just distraction.

 

[Puffy]

Again, realistically, I have to go sleep now as I have to get up at 6, work a 10 hour day, come back home hours before lynch-time and read through a load of posts of accusations saying how I've not contributed anything to town. What do I do then, respond to those, make a case on someone else, or simply kill myself to make sure the rabble at least does something?

Woah, woah woah hold up.

unvote Puffy

This is a little unfair in honesty, as now people are just going to say 'unvoted as he was called out on his bluff' when I'd already unvoted.

I feel I've been pinned and can't really do anything. At this point after posting in favour of ESC and Hado, I vote for either and if they come up green as I suspect I'm lynched. I try to make a case on someone else now and people will say I'm intentionally dividing the vote and lynch. I do nothing and they say I'm mafia and lynch.

I have said I think it'd be better for town overall if I died rather than none and I'm happy to keep to that. But it seems sneaky as hell to try and rush that in before I even have a chance to post.

Brb I really need to read this day over a few times.

 

[Hadoblado]

lol tolja

 

[Hadoblado]

Can't blame a man for trying

Here you go:

You're right, without RB it's not happening without mafia being on the vote (we need 6, there's 10 people, sinny won't help).

Okay RB. I'm pretty worn out atm, so I'm not going to plunge his filter like I did cheeseum, but I don't think that will be necessary to convince you.

Off the top of my head the rest comes down to:

1) - His martyrdom was scummy as fuuuck. Just like ESC's is now. When you're town and you're committed to winning, you don't want to die. The only reason you offer up your throat is because you're bluffing people away. Unfortunately, apparently INTPs love this kind of drama and towners have been doing it too (cheeseum and neb). But it's not the same. Look at the frustration of cheeseum, or the "hey guys I'm no threat" of neb. Both ESC and Puffy are desparately trying to signal each other with martyring that it's okay for them to be bussed, because they think that's the only way they're getting out of this. A town puffy knows that puffy is town. Why the fuck on earth would someone as not retarded as puffy ever want to get lynched knowing that it would be at the hands of one of his best town reads (me, which he's repeated multiple times). This scenario would be a town Puffy deliberately killing himself with a mislynch, and then his best read with a mislynch, while paying the time for two additional PKs from mafia. That would be utterly the fuck dumb as pigshit stupid. He's not stupid, you know him.

2) - He put ESC as a town read up there with RB and I. Which is retarded. RB you know this. You know Puffy would never think that ESC is confirmed town anywhere near the same level we are if he was genuinely searching.

3) - He's positioned himself as advisor. Which is what I've done. But I've also hunted scum mercilessly. Why does he think he should advise people when this is his first game, and he hasn't established a position of any authority whatsoever? Why has he done this to the exclusion of hunting scum when he understands very well that what town need to do is hunt scum?

4) - He's made a lot of big deals articulating irrelevant things that don't lead to hunting scum. This is because he's thinking in a policy way about scum, in vague theoretical terms. Theory can be applied whether you're town or scum and he knows this. He knows that it's the practice of scum hunting that shows who's town, and yet for some reason doesn't do it. This may sound silly, but when you are mafia, it's really difficult to convincingly hunt scum. You have to think all Bayesian and shit, which take enormous processing power. It sounds easier than it is.

5) - If Puffy isn't mafia, then there were no active scum early in the game. Which is highly improbable. Remember when I said it was Puffy or Zerkalo with the rushed paint job? Well it's not Zerkalo. At the start of the game, the mafia could not communicate with one another. They all understood that they couldn't all be lurkers. As nobody posts, one of them has to stand up and go interact with town some, or mafia will have no influence over the lynch. I don't believe it's possible for all three to independently ignore that pressure and stay lurking that long. I know that everyone else who was posting day is town, so it must be Puffy.

6) - He hasn't done a fucking thing all game. Zero commitment about anything. Town reads on the two most townie players. Town read on ESC who is definitely not town. Town reads are not red reads. He hasn't spotted any scum sign because he's not looking, because we very well know he'd have found some by now if he was looking.

This is what you need to answer. Don't worry about catching up and wasting time.

 

[Hadoblado]

And btw, you can see how his martyring was a complete bluff.

Instead of proving his town by doing a single goddamn fucking thing, he bluffed instead. He tried to sell it like he was willing to commit to it, but he backed out because he didn't think he was in any real danger. He way lying.

Credit: RB