Forum Mafia Game #1

[Hadoblado]

ESC is mafia.

 

[redbaron]

Shit I don't have time to catch up.

I didn't want to vote but I mustvote Hado. If I die tonight, I want pitchforks pointed at Hado, redbaron and helvete and Happy.

If you don't think I'm Town at this point and you're Town, then Town is surely fucked and we're going to seriously struggle for majority votes.

 

[Sinny91]

I didn't unvote Hado, I'm sticking to Hado.

 

[redbaron]

Also I'm going to say that targeting me specifically to be mafia makes ESC a massive candidate to be mafia at this point. He's not an idiot, he's got no excuse.

 

[redbaron]

Also sorry QT, thread went to next page before I realised you posted. My bad.

 

[QuickTwist]

DID I STUTTER?

DO NOT POST!!!

 

[QuickTwist]

OFFICIAL DAY END VOTE COUNT:

1. Hadoblado - 2, Sinny91, EyeSeeCold
2. Nebulous - 0
3. Happy - 0
4. Zerkalo - 1, Artsu Tharaz
5. ruminator - 0
6. redbaron -0
7. Puffy - 0
8. Rook - Vanilla Townie
9. Helvete - 0
10. Cheeseumpuffs - 7 (lynch), zerkalo, Nebulous, Hadoblado, Helvete, Puffy, redbaron, Cheeseumpuffs
11. Sinny91 - 0
12. EyeSeeCold - 0
13. Artsu Tharaz - 0

Not Voting: Happy, ruminator

Cheeseumpuffs HAS BEEN LYNCHED. HE WAS:

VANILLA TOWNIE.

SPECIAL NOTE:

NIGHT PHASE WILL BE 1 HOUR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE YOUR NIGHT ACTIONS IN 1 HOUR BEFORE THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT DAY OR I WILL USE THE LAST VALID NIGHT ACTION MADE.

DAY 2 BEGINS IN ~22HOURS 15MIN

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20160521T18&p0=159&font=cursive

Vote redbaron

Unvote redbaron

Vote EyeSeeCold

vote Happy

unvote Happy

vote happy

unvote happy

vote Ruminator

Vote Ruminator

Vote ruminator

vote ruminator.

VOTE ESC

vote Nebulous

Vote Nebulous

okay then vote artsu

UN VOTE ESC

VOTE NEBULOUS

vote Nebulous

Unvote WhoeverIVotedBefore

Vote Cheeseumpuffs

I VOTE ZERKALO

Vote Cheesums

Unvote CheeseumPuffs

Vote Nebulous

Unvote Cheesums.

Vote Nebulous.

Vote nebulous

Vote cheese

votes ruminator

UNVOTE RUMINATOR

VOTE CHEESE

unvote Nebulous

Unvote

Vote Cheeseumpuffs

vote hado

Vote Hado

vote cheeseum

vote cheeseumpuffs

Vote Cheesums

vote Hado.

unvote hado
vote cheeseumpuffs

Vote Cheese

.

 

[QuickTwist]

NIGHT ACTIONS HAVE BEEN LOCKED IN.​

GAME WILL START AFTER I SHOW THE NK IN ~53 MIN

 

[QuickTwist]

Helvete HAS BEEN KILLED! HE WAS:

VANILLA TOWNIE

Player list:

1. Hadoblado
2. Nebulous
3. Happy
4. Zerkalo
5. ruminator
6. redbaron
7. Puffy
8. Rook Vanilla Townie
9. Helvete Vanilla Townie
10. Cheeseumpuffs Vanilla Townie
11. Sinny91
12. EyeSeeCold
13. Artsu Tharaz

GAME DAY ENDS IN ~2 DAYS

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20160523T18&p0=159&font=cursive

YOU MAY POST!!!​

 

[redbaron]

Vote analysis:

1. Hadoblado - 2, Sinny91, EyeSeeCold
2. Nebulous - 0
3. Happy - 0
4. Zerkalo - 1, Artsu Tharaz
5. ruminator - 0
6. redbaron -0
7. Puffy - 0
8. Rook - Vanilla Townie
9. Helvete - 0
10. Cheeseumpuffs - 7 (lynch), zerkalo, Nebulous, Hadoblado, Helvete, Puffy, redbaron, Cheeseumpuffs
11. Sinny91 - 0
12. EyeSeeCold - 0
13. Artsu Tharaz - 0
Not Voting: Happy, ruminator

10 voted, meaning there's a minimum 1 mafia vote overall. I'd be willing to wager there's a minimum of 2 mafia voting, and that at least 1 of them was on Cheeseums.

Based on that, I want to hear from ruminator. She was already a 30-40% mafia read in my book, but Hado convinced me Cheesums was a little more likely.

Vote Ruminator

 

[redbaron]

Well, I was also meant to add that I also think that one of the not voters are mafia, if not both. I'm sure of that and I'm sure that at least 1 mafia vote was on Cheeseums.

 

[redbaron]

Also just so that all town are aware, what I'm doing now is exactly why I wanted a lynch so badly. Whether it's a good result or not, it gives us information to work off and gets us closer to lynching mafia. A no-lynch would have been just as terrible.

 

[Puffy]

Well, I was also meant to add that I also think that one of the not voters are mafia, if not both. I'm sure of that and I'm sure that at least 1 mafia vote was on Cheeseums.

Hmm, I was about to ask why ruminator in that case but I get you.

If I understand correctly, we know at least 1 mafia voted, but that pool-size is quite large, if it can be reasoned likely that a non-voter was mafia then that's a significantly smaller pool-size to question first? Could I ask why you feel confident a non-voter is likely to be mafia if that's the case? Or do you mean purely in terms of probability in combination with your prior read of ruminator?

I'd like to hear more from ruminator on her view of the game up to now as she said she'd contribute today. Happy promised more activity in the other thread so I assume no pressure is needed to get yours? While he did vote Artsu's sole contribution in the last round amounted to just returning a defensive vote against zerkalo, and was technically a non-voter in my eyes. I really think he should be expected to weigh in on this round, or have heavy pressure applied until he does.

You're right that the voting pattern needs to be assessed for tells, but I think we need to assess the NK and anything that can be inferred from that as well. It's 1AM here so forgive me for being a bit brief. I'll definitely come back to weigh in more tomorrow.

 

[Happy]

Yeah I meant to vote actually. I will this time round.
I'll post more when I get to a computer (most of my INTPf activity takes place on my phone on public transport)

 

[Hadoblado]

Premise: there is at least one active scum.

Conclusion:

 

[redbaron]

Also Zerkalo, I want to know why you've second-guessed the wisdom of lynching Nebulous from start to finish. Not only were you hesitant to even throw a vote her way, you even advocated for us to switch targets.

So far you've done very little that could potentially cause a stir but as I see it, you're not really doing anything impactful. Either with your vote or your words. You're playing exactly the supportive and seemingly helpful role you're supposed to play, without ever actually helping the town cause.

The voting patterns don't add up and neither does your reasonings so far. What's your read on Nebulous?

 

[Hadoblado]

And while I haven't yet gone and raped your filters, I'm about to. My suspicions are on Puffy.
HoS: Puffy
FoS: Zerkalo

 

[redbaron]

You're right that the voting pattern needs to be assessed for tells, but I think we need to assess the NK and anything that can be inferred from that as well.

No. I think the NK is either:

1. Hunting for a likely cop by targeting a semi-active, out of the way townie who's trying to save face

OR

2. A decision made to deliberately be obscure by way of Helvete's lower post count, leaving no real trail but still eliminating someone who showed active participation in voting. Helvete made it clear that his intentions were town and that he's dedicated to lynching scum with his plea that we really unite.

3. Intended to sew discord by virtue of not eliminating Hado. Right now Hadoblado is in the sights of two people who I think could be town.

~

Honestly I'm suspicious of your last minute Cheesums vote as much as Zerkalo, as well as the fact that a lot of what you've said has related to:

A. making us think about the mafia meta-game, as a potential psych out. Sort of like pre-empting that because you seem to be helping us be more aware of the mafia mentality, you're helping town. When actually you're just sewing discord and making decision-making harder for the town by telling them what they already know.

B. you've basically just echoed things that Hado or I have said at this point without that much original helpful thought process.

You're going in the Zerkalo box of verbally supportive but not action-oriented supportive.

Right now:
Puffy
Zerkalo
Ruminator

Y'all motherfuckers got some 'splaining to do.

 

[EyeSeeCold]

I'm town, Sinny is town. zerk is probably town.

With Helvete and Cheesypoofs dead (rest their souls) we have some data to go on. I have to think about it though.

 

[redbaron]

Intended to sew discord by virtue of not eliminating Hado. Right now Hadoblado is in the sights of two people who I think could be town.

What I meant by this is, by not eliminating Hado, the mafia are playing us right into the narrative of: "if Hado isn't dead after first Night, the Town will kill him."

That's too obvious and far too easy a trap for the mafia to set. Perhaps the mafia really are that obvious, but they can't be that terrible at the game because they've managed to engineer a town-lynching on Day 1.

 

[Hadoblado]

Puffy, Zerkalo:
At least one of you is scum. You both need to convince us that it's the other one.

And by us, I mean RB and I. If you appeal to the whimpering agnosticism of the others I'll fucking light you up.

 

[EyeSeeCold]

Artsu and ruminator, don't get modkilled. :/

 

[Hadoblado]

I'm town, Sinny is town. zerk is probably town.

With Helvete and Cheesypoofs dead (rest their souls) we have some data to go on. I have to think about it though.

How brave.

Oh you're down are you? Well gosh thanks for enlightening me! Gee whiz golly gee I do hope that you don't have and alterior motives here!

Oh Sinny's town is she? Oh dear. Because I was under the impression she definitely wasn't town. Certainly not an established town that, btw, I established.

Oh Zerkalo's probably town? Wut. WTF? I'm literally trying to get them hung right now, and you, thinking they're probably town, come to their defense by saying they're "probably town". Gee nice one.

Vote: EyeSeeCold

I know you're not an idiot. This is bullshit. Shape up and stop being so spineless. A person of your ability who is town should not be pushing this crap. You are pushing this crap, therefore, you are not town.

 

[Hadoblado]

What I meant by this is, by not eliminating Hado, the mafia are playing us right into the narrative of: "if Hado isn't dead after first Night, the Town will kill him."

That's too obvious and far too easy a trap for the mafia to set. Perhaps the mafia really are that obvious, but they can't be that terrible at the game because they've managed to engineer a town-lynching on Day 1.

I don't think it's right to assume the lynch day one was engineered. All they had to do was role with my momentum knowing that I was pushing in the wrong direction. While there was certainly at least one mafia on the train, there were at least four town. It's certainly something we need to consider, but not something we can assume.

And yes, the mafia can really be that obvious. It's always a wifom, where every meta level is synonymous with the one two stages below it. "But if they think that it's obvious, it will be so non-obvious they disregard it". Don't think in terms of obviousness, think in terms of attention. A mafia can be obvious so long as they're not drawing attention to themselves. There are exceptions, where a mafia can draw attention to themselves, but no nooby stands a snowballs chance in hell of pulling it off with an equal or greater success rate than if they had have just kept quiet. Certainly not against other noobies who have strong availability bias.

 

[EyeSeeCold]

How brave.

Oh you're down are you? Well gosh thanks for enlightening me! Gee whiz golly gee I do hope that you don't have and alterior motives here!

Oh Sinny's town is she? Oh dear. Because I was under the impression she definitely wasn't town. Certainly not an established town that, btw, I established.

Oh Zerkalo's probably town? Wut. WTF? I'm literally trying to get them hung right now, and you, thinking they're probably town, come to their defense by saying they're "probably town". Gee nice one.

Vote: EyeSeeCold

I know you're not an idiot. This is bullshit. Shape up and stop being so spineless. A person of your ability who is town should not be pushing this crap. You are pushing this crap, therefore, you are not town.

If you think Sinny and I are mafia, and that either zerk or puffy is town. You have to explain the weird behavior of ruminator, happy, artsu, and neb who all lurk much more than I.

Either way your lack of conviction for redbaron reaffirms my suspicion of you.

 

[Hadoblado]

And ESC I'm serious. This isn't day one anymore. I think you're scum, and I'm more than happy lynching you.

You keep telling us you're 'thinking' but I see no results from that thinking that couldn't be RNGed. Thinking is correlated with reasoning. There is an enormous gap between the thinking you've told us you're doing, and the amount of reasoning you've provided. Why?

 

[redbaron]

If I understand correctly, we know at least 1 mafia voted, but that pool-size is quite large, if it can be reasoned likely that a non-voter was mafia then that's a significantly smaller pool-size to question first? Could I ask why you feel confident a non-voter is likely to be mafia if that's the case? Or do you mean purely in terms of probability in combination with your prior read of ruminator?

It's in the interest of mafia to make voting harder. It's also in their interests to make it not too obvious that they're gunning for townspeople. Yes, it's also a smaller pool-size to question, plus I read Happy as closer to town than ruminator.

Ruminator's got the perfect excuse for not voting, yet she's played this game before and knows some of its workings. Perhaps that really is how they play the games she's played before - but that seems really odd. What do they do for the entire first phase of Day? Just sit around and say shit all? How does that work?

She's planted some very irrational seeds into everyone's mind that it's hard to find mafia on Day 1 for lack of information - that we should rely on the NK. If we do that, then what? We're at complete mercy of the mafia because the mafia have total control of NK's.

Also in a game with so many inactives, it becomes a doubly terrible idea. The mafia can just remove the most inactive posters and then give us nothing to work off. In conjunction with a collectively agnostic and placid approach to the game - we are guaranteed to lose playing the game ruminator's way and I think that as someone who's played quite a bit, she's more than aware of this.

My vote stays on ruminator.

 

[Ex-User (11125)]

oh wow is it not clear as day why i would want to avoid a person i have no concrete reason to suspect and vote for the one i do?

i would really like to know how these 2 processes are equal in your eyes:
process 1: lynch probable townie on day 1+either townie or cop dies on night 1+lynch probable mafia based on day 1's lynch
process 2: lynch suspected mafia directly

it came to the point where you 2 were pressuring me to vote for a person i have no concrete reason to suspect, when there was another i was semi-sure was mafia due to blatant inconsistencies in posting. so i chose to vote for the second. if i were really all talk i would have simply abstained. look at how changing the vote is attracting most attention to me now, certainly not something i would want if i were mafia

anyway about the only piece of information i've been able to extrapolate from day 1's happenings is that there is NO WAY that both of you are mafia. you obviously wouldnt have pressured anyone to vote for cheeseum if you knew he were town
there is a chance tho that one of you could be mafia and is leading on the other
but for now atleast i have you 2 and sinny down as most probable townies and then nebulous
everyone else could be mafia

rip helvete :'(

 

[EyeSeeCold]

And ESC I'm serious. This isn't day one anymore. I think you're scum, and I'm more than happy lynching you.

You keep telling us you're 'thinking' but I see no results from that thinking that couldn't be RNGed. Thinking is correlated with reasoning. There is an enormous gap between the thinking you've told us you're doing, and the amount of reasoning you've provided. Why?

Are you going to speak on the activity of ruminator, happy, artsu, and neb or are you just going to take the piss hadobladder?

 

[Hadoblado]

If you think Sinny and I are mafia, and that either zerk or puffy is town. You have to explain the weird behavior of ruminator, happy, artsu, and neb who all lurk much more than I.

Either way your lack of conviction for redbaron reaffirms my suspicion of you.

At first I was like "oh he's just a little bit confused", but then I was like "shit mang, he's overselling it".

And then I was like "gee, that's a lot of legwork this scum is trying to throw at me before I'm allowed to suspect him".

You think that I should suspect RB because we're both still alive? Is that your reasoning? Because that's the best thing you've said all game. This is not sarcasm. Elaborate on this point.

 

[Puffy]

If I recall I've also multiple times welcomed interrogation. If it was earlier in the evening I'd respond to you now (its nearly 3am), but I'm expecting some epic post from hado and may as well return to this tomorrow. If he doesn't I'll write back anyway.

I would say I don't think its fair to level suspicion on cheeseumpuffs's lynch against me. Even sinny who clearly didn't want the lynch to happen changed her mind reluctantly. I laid out what I thought was a most reasonable lynch for town pretty early in the day in the form of an inactive. The reality was 20 minutes before the clock a lynch wasn't going to happen, and if I hadn't voted it wouldn't have happened, and you'd be saying how suspicious it was that I didn't contribute and divided the vote when hado asked me to and consequently left town day 1 no closer to identifying mafia.

The rest of what you're saying sound like fair suspicions to raise and I'm happy to return to this.

 

[redbaron]

Either way your lack of conviction for redbaron reaffirms my suspicion of you.

Okay, so let's roll with this. You're a Townie who thinks that both Hado and I are mafia, and that both of us are playing this gambit of appearing Town and doing everything in our power to have the Town be an effective Town while secretly being mafia - posting tonnes of content for analysis where we could potentially slip up and blow our cover.

Yet for all of the content we've posted the thing that makes you think we're mafia has nothing to do with all of that content, it's just that, "well you're not accusing each other so I think you're both mafia!"

Are you trying to lose right now?

The other alternative is that you're mafia and you're trying to throw off the only two people who stand a chance of possibly achieving anything in this game because everyone else wants to constantly err on the side of caution, making it easy to call into question our empirically-proven-to-be-effective cut-throat style of play and make voting off scum harder.

 

[Hadoblado]

ruminator, happy, artsu, and neb

If ESC flips scum, one of these is scum.

 

[Ex-User (11125)]

rb and hado reply to my post...i want to understand why the 2 processes are eqqual in your eyes

 

[redbaron]

Yet for all of the content we've posted the thing that makes you think we're mafia has nothing to do with all of that content, it's just that, "well you're not accusing each other so I think you're both mafia!"

Honestly by this same logic, I could deduce that you and Sinny are mafia as well because something about her lack of suspicion of you and vice-versa. I won't though, because your content gives enough room to demonstrate that you're scum.

On the other hand, you can't seem to find any real content that identifies either Hado or myself as scum.

Right now you're the God of the Gaps, exactly the thing that scum do. If you're not scum, stop helping scum. Make real accusations.

 

[EyeSeeCold]

A so-called cuthroat method for voting off scum only works if you actually vote off scum. You bastards got Cheesy lynched. Yeah I don't trust your methods at all.

 

[Hadoblado]

Empirically proven in that, just like flipping coins are empirically proven to be more conducive to landing heads than not flipping coins, lynching is more conducive to lynching mafia than not lynching.

 

[redbaron]

Can I get a role-call of who's actively perusing this thread over the next, say, 5 minutes?

If you're on this thread, just post 'here'. I want to check something, it'll take no longer than 5 minutes in itself.

 

[Hadoblado]

"you bastards" haha

 

[redbaron]

A so-called cuthroat method for voting off scum only works if you actually vote off scum. You bastards got Cheesy lynched. Yeah I don't trust your methods at all.

How many shots are you going to hit in basketball if you take zero?

You miss 100% of the shots you don't take and the only way to win is to take shots. Some miss, some hit. But you need to take shots if you ever want to win the game.

 

[Hadoblado]

Can everyone see this?

ESC thinks that we should not lynch anyone, when lynching is the *only* tool we have for winning.

What is the alternative you suggest we bastards take?

I'm genuinely interested. What does a town led by the deep thinking of ESC look like? How does it win? If you do not respond to this question I'm locking my vote on you. I will not move it until this question is answered.

 

[Hadoblado]

here

 

[EyeSeeCold]

How many shots are you going to hit in basketball if you take zero?

You miss 100% of the shots you don't take and the only way to win is to take shots. Some miss, some hit. But you need to take shots if you ever want to win the game.

You also miss 100% of the shots when your two forward are braindead.

 

[Hadoblado]

I'm genuinely interested. What does a town led by the deep thinking of ESC look like? How does it win? If you do not respond to this question I'm locking my vote on you. I will not move it until this question is answered.

And I'll extend this question to everyone else who doesn't think we need to lynch. How are you wanting to win if we don't lynch? What's your game plan.? Because the only alternative is to die slow. I'm fucking done entertaining this conversation. If you don't get it after you've responded to this, you're red. It's unintuitive, but if you don't get it after 60 hours, you're dead to me. I can't possibly be expected to tell the difference between someone that dense, and someone playing coy.

 

[EyeSeeCold]

EBWOP: forwards

We should focus on calculated shots not flailing our arms.

 

[redbaron]

You also miss 100% of the shots when your two forward are braindead.

Ok so:

What is the alternative you suggest we bastards take?

I'm genuinely interested. What does a town led by the deep thinking of ESC look like?

Also ESC, you're getting wildly inconsistent here. Is it that we're braindead or that we're mafia? You can't seem to decide what your actual accusation is.

Is Hado mafia leading me on? Am I mafia leading Hado on? Are we both mafia? Or are we Town but just braindead?

 

[Hadoblado]

You also miss 100% of the shots when your two forward are braindead.

Hey I'll give up the forward position if you think you'll have a better shot. Convince the town that someone is mafia. Do it.

 

[Hadoblado]

Is it that we're braindead or that we're mafia?

Nice catch.

If we're mafia we're unbelievably fucking amazing. It doesn't make sense that ESC would think us stupid while also thinking us mafia.

The only two things these claims have in common is that they cast doubt. That's scum game.

 

[EyeSeeCold]

Is Hado mafia leading me on? Am I mafia leading Hado on? Are we both mafia? Or are we Town but just braindead?

You tell me. I see zero focus on lurkers here from you two yet lurkers were your primary suspects in round one. Could be you don't need to rely on that weak strat anymore since you know who the actual town is.

 

[redbaron]

oh wow is it not clear as day why i would want to avoid a person i have no concrete reason to suspect and vote for the one i do?

Okay, so you didn't move because you thought Nebulous was a solid town read? That's acceptable.

Why do you think Nebulous is a solid town read?

it came to the point where you 2 were pressuring me to vote for a person i have no concrete reason to suspect, when there was another i was semi-sure was mafia due to blatant inconsistencies in posting. so i chose to vote for the second. if i were really all talk i would have simply abstained. look at how changing the vote is attracting most attention to me now, certainly not something i would want if i were mafia

Not if you knew you were going to get a Townie lynched.

anyway about the only piece of information i've been able to extrapolate from day 1's happenings is that there is NO WAY that both of you are mafia. you obviously wouldnt have pressured anyone to vote for cheeseum if you knew he were town

there is a chance tho that one of you could be mafia and is leading on the other
but for now atleast i have you 2 and sinny down as most probable townies and then nebulous
everyone else could be mafia

I don't trust this statement. At all.

You're essentially pandering to your accusers by saying that we're both highly likely town, as if I'm supposed to trust that since you've correctly read me and Hado as town that I should trust you to correctly read Nebulous too?

The questions i take from this:

If you didn't move to vote because you think Nebulous is town, then why do you think Nebulous is town?