Forum Mafia Game #1

[QuickTwist]

Special Note:

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 Ends in ~1 day 1hour 38min

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdow...159&msg=Forum+Mafia+Day+1+Ending&font=cursive

 

[Artsu Tharaz]

You were pretty active in a bunch of threads not long ago, what appointments do you have that prevented you from being in this thread?

I'm most active if I'm drunk.

Plus my mental health is such that if I'm feeling low I don't end up even keeping my real life appointments, that's what I mean.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

I'm most active if I'm drunk.

Plus my mental health is such that if I'm feeling low I don't end up even keeping my real life appointments, that's what I mean.

Are you drunk now?

Also are you mafia? You're required to answer truthfully if you are, it's part of the rules.



Also, I'm heading to work now. My boss may be in today, so I don't think it likely that I'll be posting for the next 7 hours or so.

 

[QuickTwist]

Special Note:

Please refer to this guide and site for all your questions on how to play this game. I can also answer questions you have in the QT I provided to to with your role information.

If you are wondering things about this game, the link in this quoted post will give you a basic rundown. Feel free to browse that wiki for info on the game like optimum strategy and the like.

 

[EyeSeeCold]

Happy
Nebulous
Hado

redbaron


Cheeseumpuffs
Helvete
zerkalo
Artsu Tharaz
ruminator
redbaron

Sinny
Puffy
Rook †



Hado seemed the most eager to get things started and was the first to vote(suspicious), but then promptly unvoted to make himself seem like he is pro-townie. I can't really explain my Neb and Happy suspicions.

redbaron because as the second to vote he is quick to get rid of the newb.

Also Rook was outed as a townie with a relatively low activity which might be a trend.

 

[Artsu Tharaz]

Artsu: Busy planning a hit?

I would, but I'll end up spending 2 days off the forum if I do that again...

Booze is cheaper anyway.

I have $20 to my name, let's see how it goes.

Wish me luck.

 

[QuickTwist]

Special Note:

I ask that you please periodically look at the QT I linked to all of you because I may have things to say to you privately there. That QT is for your use, you may ask me questions there or make notes there or whatever you want. I will be checking them frequently when I am able to so if you have a question, you may ask me there and you will probably get a pretty quick responce if I am not sleeping.

 

[Nebulous]

I'm town, Hado is suspicious, and I feel like ruminator could totally be mafia.
I also remember finding EyeSeeCold suspicious but I can't recall my reasoning.

 

[Nebulous]

If we are not gonna be making accusations yet, then I don't really know what to post. I've played this game IRL many times before. I haven't read any guides.

Just waiting for night one, so we can get some content to work with.

Cya

I also have played the game IRL many times and wasn't sure what to post at the point when you posted this.
I also stated that I didn't know what to do until there was more content. (Or if I didn't post it I definitely thought it. I think I did say it though.)
But I didn't decide to "wait for night one." I find it suspicious that you chose to do this. Wouldn't it be more reasonable to keep an eye on the thread until useful content appeared, instead of choosing to wait until a predetermined time...?

(I'm not wording this well but hopefully y'all will sort of get the just of what I'm saying)

Idk man ya seem suspicious

 

[Hadoblado]

Last 24 hours. Time to get your shit together.

First off, people still thinking of voting me: bring it all out now so we can get it out of the way. You're new, so I'm not holding it against you, but you need to realise:

a) I'm not getting lynched day one. Out of all the criteria for lynching someone, I don't meet any of them. I've got the best activity, I've actively brought town up to speed, and to my knowledge I haven't actually been called out for anything other than "yeah, but what if hadopladopusso is actually Palpatine", which is a natural place for people's minds to go regardless of my alignment. This thought pattern happens every game, because people are more scared of being made to look a fool than they are of losing. I'd put my money on each and every one of you being okay with losing so long as you feel you did okay. Getting min-draped by a Palpatine maneuver is the worst case scenario, it'd make you feel like an idiot. Well, despite this coming up every single game, I'm yet to see anyone successfully pull this off. It's a cosmetic association that doesn't actually make that much sense. If I were scum, and I had the intention of winning, I would just not act, and the town would collapse on its own. Town has one less member than we should, we have terrible levels of activity, except for me there'd have been nobody who was familiar with forum mafia patterns to call out scummy play. This hypothesis that I'm secretly calling the shots is mislead, and frankly silly, because if I wanted to win as mafia it would have been the least effective way to do it. The scenario in which I'm mafia is basically equating me to a caricature of a bond villain, where I forego an easy win in order to produce a narrative worth reading. I am confirmed town (inb4 godfather quote), you need to understand this and move on.

2) I'm almost certainly dying tonight. If for some reason I don't die tonight from NK, then you've got reason to be suspicious of me. Until then, there hasn't been a single real reason to lynch me put forward beyond "yeah, but it's technically possible". That's called availability bias, and I would be lying if I said I hadn't fallen victim to the same thing.

So if you both think I'm scum and think you can get town behind you to do it, then get it done. Otherwise, take my name off the list for lynch one (if not for good) and hunt some scummers.

 

[Hadoblado]

@Puffy
Lurker just means low activity. It doesn't mean you were sitting there lurking. Or that's not the way I intended it anyway.

I'm not using modoptions, and I'm not paying attention to when people are online. In my experience it's not a useful thing to do, and it makes the game less fun. You know nothing about my personal life, so even if you caught me out, it would be very easy for me to fabricate a reason for why I had access to the internet when I wasn't expecting to. What's more, I've frequently found myself available/unavailable, and tend to lie even as town just to make it not an issue. I would just tell you I had 'work' or 'sleep'. You're not in a position to tell me I'm wrong, you can't build a case off it, it's a red herring. For the record, I haven't lied about my activity this game, but as town in other games I have.

 

[redbaron]

redbaron because as the second to vote he is quick to get rid of the newb.

How does that make someone more likely to be mafia?

I'm voting to get rid of someone who the mafia themselves would be unlikely to get rid of, since they're less likely to be the target of an NK - and there's as much chance of them being mafia laying low as there is simply being inactive.

We lose either a weak player or a mafioso, which makes sense. I'm not sure how that would make me anti-town in anyone's books. Frankly it's stupid to think that I'm mafia based on my posts. Even if this was a bluff, this would be a dumb way of going about it since I'm drawing A LOT of attention to myself from other townspeople.

My goal here isn't to get someone lynched, it's to get as much information as possible. There's literally no way that the way I'm playing this game makes sense if I'm mafia. I'm town and it's pretty obvious.

 

[Hadoblado]

My personal preference for first lynch would be a demi-lurker or semi-active. Someone who's not contributing much, but is saying things that are suspicious. Kudos/amnesty to anyone who guesses who I'm talking about specifically.

I didn't actually have anyone specific in mind. It's true that that's the demographic I'd prefer to lynch, but I wasn't think of any particular member. I just wanted to see if people would show the initiative and develop cases in that direction.

 

[QuickTwist]

How does that make someone more likely to be mafia?

I'm voting to get rid of someone who the mafia themselves would be unlikely to get rid of, since they're less of a threat - and there's as much chance of you being mafia as there is not.

We lose either a weak player or a mafioso. Fine with me.

Consider that your one warning for editing a post.

You have been warned for editing your post.

 

[Hadoblado]

Who do you define as an active? Is your list similar to Helvete's colored one, or do you have different criteria?

The line is drawn somewhat arbitrarily, and I haven't really gone and given values to the quality of the posts. But nobody with a cross has contributed enough. I mean, Rook is still only just in the lower 50%, and they were here for all of five minutes. It's actually pissing me off.

Vote Ruminator

 

[Hadoblado]

Ruminator get your ass out here. One post is pathetic.

 

[redbaron]

Consider that your one warning for editing a post.

You have been warned for editing your post.

Sorry didn't even realise I'd done it

Probably gonna get mod-killed because old habits die hard.

 

[redbaron]

UNVOTE ESC

Vote ruminator

ESC is posting now.

 

[QuickTwist]

Sorry didn't even realise I'd done it

Probably gonna get mod-killed because old habits die hard.

I told Rook this and I will tell you the same thing: there is a preview mechanic, use it, know it. I can tell you for fact that I really don't want to modkill anyone, but the rules are in place to give a fair and balanced game. If I don't uphold the rules, then it becomes a wash, no one will learn and the game will just be a cheat fest.

 

[redbaron]

I already previewed, that's not the thing that makes do the thing. I'll just have to pretend that my goal is to quintuple post every time I'm in this thread.

 

[QuickTwist]

Vote redbaron

Unvote redbaron

Vote EyeSeeCold

vote Happy



unvote Happy

Nvote happy

unvote happy

vote Ruminator

Vote Ruminator

Vote ruminator

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:

Up to post 168:

1. Hadoblado - 0
2. Nebulous - 0
3. Happy - 0
4. Zerkalo - 0
5. ruminator - 3, Puffy, Hadoblado, redbaron
6. redbaron -0
7. Puffy - 0
8. Rook - 0
9. Helvete - 0
10. Cheeseumpuffs - 0
11. Sinny91 - 0
12. EyeSeeCold - 0
13. Artsu Tharaz - 0

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day ends in ~22hour 13min

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdow...159&msg=Forum+Mafia+Day+1+Ending&font=cursive

 

[Nebulous]

Last 24 hours. Time to get your shit together.

First off, people still thinking of voting me: bring it all out now so we can get it out of the way. You're new, so I'm not holding it against you, but you need to realise:

a) I'm not getting lynched day one. Out of all the criteria for lynching someone, I don't meet any of them. I've got the best activity, I've actively brought town up to speed, and to my knowledge I haven't actually been called out for anything other than "yeah, but what if hadopladopusso is actually Palpatine", which is a natural place for people's minds to go regardless of my alignment. This thought pattern happens every game, because people are more scared of being made to look a fool than they are of losing. I'd put my money on each and every one of you being okay with losing so long as you feel you did okay. Getting min-draped by a Palpatine maneuver is the worst case scenario, it'd make you feel like an idiot. Well, despite this coming up every single game, I'm yet to see anyone successfully pull this off. It's a cosmetic association that doesn't actually make that much sense. If I were scum, and I had the intention of winning, I would just not act, and the town would collapse on its own. Town has one less member than we should, we have terrible levels of activity, except for me there'd have been nobody who was familiar with forum mafia patterns to call out scummy play. This hypothesis that I'm secretly calling the shots is mislead, and frankly silly, because if I wanted to win as mafia it would have been the least effective way to do it. The scenario in which I'm mafia is basically equating me to a caricature of a bond villain, where I forego an easy win in order to produce a narrative worth reading. I am confirmed town (inb4 godfather quote), you need to understand this and move on.

2) I'm almost certainly dying tonight. If for some reason I don't die tonight from NK, then you've got reason to be suspicious of me. Until then, there hasn't been a single real reason to lynch me put forward beyond "yeah, but it's technically possible". That's called availability bias, and I would be lying if I said I hadn't fallen victim to the same thing.

So if you both think I'm scum and think you can get town behind you to do it, then get it done. Otherwise, take my name off the list for lynch one (if not for good) and hunt some scummers.

I'm now pretty sure you're mafia.

I don't want to vote you out on day one though as you've been helpful in getting the thread going and you have helped the town.

I vote ruminator.

 

[Hadoblado]

Ruminator I don't want to vote a lurker. But I can't let this shit past.

Neb's assessment here:

I also have played the game IRL many times and wasn't sure what to post at the point when you posted this.
I also stated that I didn't know what to do until there was more content. (Or if I didn't post it I definitely thought it. I think I did say it though.)
But I didn't decide to "wait for night one." I find it suspicious that you chose to do this. Wouldn't it be more reasonable to keep an eye on the thread until useful content appeared, instead of choosing to wait until a predetermined time...?

(I'm not wording this well but hopefully y'all will sort of get the just of what I'm saying)

Idk man ya seem suspicious

Is spot on. You don't have the choice of sitting back and coming in after night one, I won't let you. Your choices are this: post something of substance before nightfall, or die. As a town, you should want to post, and you shouldn't want to die, so I don't feel at all bad about putting you in this position. If you are town you will post.

 

[QuickTwist]

I already previewed, that's not the thing that makes do the thing. I'll just have to pretend that my goal is to quintuple post every time I'm in this thread.

OK.

If your post randomly disappears I will ask if you [all] edited your post. If I have to I will get the mods to find out.

I understand this rule in particular is hard to do, but there is a really good reason for it.

Actually, I think it might be good for a mod to check to see what posts have been edited for mafia games. If I get a response from a mod saying half the players have edited their posts, I'm going to consider all those who have edited their posts warning (even if they did it more that once :/). I just don't want anyone going back and editing their posts at a later date. This is a very important rule, but a very hard one to follow.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

2) I'm almost certainly dying tonight. If for some reason I don't die tonight from NK, then you've got reason to be suspicious of me. Until then, there hasn't been a single real reason to lynch me put forward beyond "yeah, but it's technically possible". That's called availability bias, and I would be lying if I said I hadn't fallen victim to the same thing.

Why are you so certain you're the first to go tonight? You keep saying that.

Honestly, if I were mafia, I'd be more likely to want to NK RB than you. Especially now that you surviving means you're worthy of suspicion I as mafia would want to keep you alive to sow discord. You'd be NK 2 or 3.

Vote Ruminator

Vote ruminator

Ruminator is being less than helpful, I agree. If they haven't started posting by the time I get back from work and/or check in again I'll throw a vote over that way.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

Ugh, god dammit. Watch the mafia kill RB tonight and then I get lynched for it.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

(inb4 godfather quote)

What are you gonna do? Nice college boy, didn't want to get mixed up in the family business. Now you want to gun down a police captain. Why? Because he slapped you in the face a little? What do you think this like the Army where you can shoot 'em from a mile away? No you gotta get up like this and badda-bing, you blow their brains all over your nice Ivy League suit. C'mere.

 

[redbaron]

Honestly, if I were mafia, I'd be more likely to want to NK RB than you.

I need a hug :'(

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

I need a hug :'(

Aw there there.

*hugs*

If it makes you feel any better, I'm not mafia and I don't want you to die.

 

[redbaron]

Hugged by my own murderer, what a weird feeling.

 

[Hadoblado]

It's hard to explain without sounding like an asshat. Suffice to say that mafia have patterns, and one of their patterns is that when one person posts as much as spots #2, #3, and #4 combined, they gonna get NKed. It's pretty predictable.

I would have kept a lower profile if I could have without town getting complacent. I do have a strong tendency towards martyrdom though :P

Directed at town in general:
With me gone, you guys are going to have to get yourselves in order. You need to provide an environment from which the cop can influence the lynch without claiming, which means (again), lots of cases being made. A lot will rest on their shoulders, so you need to give them the option to bandwagon onto someone without making the case themselves.

@cop
Read guides. If you're lurking day one, that's fine (sorta), but you can't afford to do it day two (neither can anyone). This game is in your hands, as, without your influence, this township is too weak to not be led astray. You will be against 2-3 mafia, but they can't collaborate too closely without drawing attention. My suggestion for your first investigation would be someone who's active, but who isn't in danger of NK or lynch. Depending on the way the cookie crumbles in the next 20 hours or so, that could be anyone.

 

[Ex-User (11125)]

Wait...7 to lynch? So it's not just a majority vote?
I would still argue that artzu is the most useless here, atleast ruminator has declared eagerness to play if there's more information available

 

[Hadoblado]

The scale isn't uselessness. Someone who's absent is more likely to be town than someone who states their intention to play by doing nothing.

 

[ruminator]

Lol what? When I said I'm waiting for day one to be over, obviously I wasn't going to break the "one post every 24 hour" rule because then I'd get kicked off anyway. I just meant I'm waiting for something to happen before starting the suspicion game.

I'm confused a little, why are we voting now? I might have totally missed this in the instructions but when I've played IRL, we vote AFTER the first person is killed. Maybe it is different in this game and I totally missed that.

Anyway, what exactly is the connection between minimal posting and being mafia? I tend to think the overposters are mafia. My first suspicion was Hado.

 

[Ex-User (11125)]

Ok im just hesitating to vote, i think ruminator has not checked in at all since yesterday so...idk. i think her abstainity from contributing and wanting to see how things go after firat kill can also be interpreted as cop behaviour.
Anyway I'll check back in some hours, if you guys are one or two votes short of a lynch then I'll add mine too

 

[Ex-User (11125)]

Lol nvm she's here

 

[Nebulous]

Ok im just hesitating to vote, i think ruminator has not checked in at all since yesterday so...idk. i think her abstainity from contributing and wanting to see how things go after firat kill can also be interpreted as cop behaviour.
Anyway I'll check back in some hours, if you guys are one or two votes short of a lynch then I'll add mine too

aaa that's a good point
So.. Hmm. What happens if the cop gets killed?
What do cops do? Would killing the cop be a stupid move?

 

[ruminator]

Cops are allowed to ask the moderator whether a single person is a mafia member or not in each round.

 

[redbaron]

The odds of lynching the cop are pretty minimal and also I doubt the cop would silently sit and say so little as to be considered a lurker. It might make them less likely to be NK'd but it also makes it less likely to ever catch the mafia.

Since information is power in this game, not having any input would be bad for any townsperson, cop included. They can only discover pne identity per night, and once you get to night 3 or 4, if you haven't lynched a mafia by that point you're in serious trouble. So I really doubt ruminator's the cop.

I'd put her as either vanilla townie or mafia, and I read mafia more strongly than town at this point - even after input.

 

[redbaron]

Lol what? When I said I'm waiting for day one to be over, obviously I wasn't going to break the "one post every 24 hour" rule because then I'd get kicked off anyway. I just meant I'm waiting for something to happen before starting the suspicion game.

One townie is already dead. That's a pretty significant happening. Also the only thing night brings is one death, there's no pattern to see from the very first kill. The first 2 day phases are largely a witch-hunt to gather as much information as quickly as possible so that we can start lynching the mafia.

Aso as mentioned being 1 townie down before first NK is quite a happening and surely classifies as a reason to start the game?

I'm confused a little, why are we voting now? I might have totally missed this in the instructions but when I've played IRL, we vote AFTER the first person is killed. Maybe it is different in this game and I totally missed that.

There's no reason not to really. Time is always on the mafia's side so the quicker the town starts the better. Voting creates a shakeup too, something every townsperson should welcome as it increases the chances of catching out mafia.

Anyway, what exactly is the connection between minimal posting and being mafia? I tend to think the overposters are mafia. My first suspicion was Hado.

It's worrying that the town trend is to act upon availability heuristic at this point. Posting more means inevitably more things to question. That the person posting most arouses the most alarm bells is part of the game. If we're calling 'lots of posting' suspicious, that just makes it the perfect environment for mafia to take the low risk option of posting minimally and avoiding people's suspicion filters because they're not tuned to analyse the people who don't post a lot as intently as the ones that do.

It's very poor strategy for townspeople to adopt a wait and see approach to the game and almost ensures a mafia win (especially so since Rook is already dead).

 

[ruminator]

The odds of lynching the cop are pretty minimal and also I doubt the cop would silently sit and say so little as to be considered a lurker. It might make them less likely to be NK'd but it also makes it less likely to ever catch the mafia.

Since information is power in this game, not having any input would be bad for any townsperson, cop included. They can only discover pne identity per night, and once you get to night 3 or 4, if you haven't lynched a mafia by that point you're in serious trouble. So I really doubt ruminator's the cop.

I'd put her as either vanilla townie or mafia, and I read mafia more strongly than town at this point - even after input.

So I'm curious, what's the logic behind reading me as mafia rather than townie?

 

[ruminator]

Oops, you just posted, and I can't edit. So ignore the last post

 

[Helvete]

Happy
Nebulous
Hado

redbaron


Cheeseumpuffs
Helvete
zerkalo
Artsu Tharaz
ruminator
redbaron

Sinny
Puffy
Rook †



Hado seemed the most eager to get things started and was the first to vote(suspicious), but then promptly unvoted to make himself seem like he is pro-townie. I can't really explain my Neb and Happy suspicions.

redbaron because as the second to vote he is quick to get rid of the newb.

Also Rook was outed as a townie with a relatively low activity which might be a trend.

I think your reasons for hado and RB as mafia are a little weak, their votes were probes and they worked.

As for Rooks activity, he was more active than many users (even for their own reasons for inactivity) in the short space of time the game started. If he wasn't modkilled I think it more likely he would have set a more active trend and not an inactive one.

You have only really posted to demonstrate your presence and play the newb card, but I'm finding this behavior suspicious.

VOTE ESC

 

[ruminator]

There's no reason not to really. Time is always on the mafia's side so the quicker the town starts the better. Voting creates a shakeup too, something every townsperson should welcome as it increases the chances of catching out mafia.



It's worrying that the town trend is to act upon availability heuristic at this point. Posting more means inevitably more things to question. That the person posting most arouses the most alarm bells is part of the game. If we're calling 'lots of posting' suspicious, that just makes it the perfect environment for mafia to take the low risk option of posting minimally and avoiding people's suspicion filters because they're not tuned to analyse the people who don't post a lot as intently as the ones that do.

It's very poor strategy for townspeople to adopt a wait and see approach to the game and almost ensures a mafia win (especially so since Rook is already dead).

- I don't know if that's true, the quicker the town starts, the better IF the town's voting is correct. If it is wrong, it just puts the town one point behind sooner.

- That's some interesting reverse psychology shit. But anyway I think it's more than just who is posting most. I think what makes me suspicious is who is jumping into pointing fingers right off the bat.

- wait and see approach is a disadvantage ONLY IF voting would produce a correct vote. Voting early is not automatically a good thing, it is conditional upon whether the vote is correct. Think about it, assume the vote is wrong, and you are voting a townie off, then what benefit did you get by voting early?

 

[redbaron]

- I don't know if that's true, the quicker the town starts, the better IF the town's voting is correct. If it is wrong, it just puts the town one point behind sooner.

The thing is, it's always a zero sum game for the town. It doesn't matter when people die, it only matters that you'e getting closer to killing the mafia. The process of getting to a successful lynching brings a lot of interactions forward and gives everyone more and more material to make a successful vote the next time.

Having an incorrect lynch is always going to happen - may as well let it happen before the number of NK's start racking up so that we can be one step closer to making accurate lynchings ASAP.

- wait and see approach is a disadvantage ONLY IF voting would produce a correct vote. Voting early is not automatically a good thing, it is conditional upon whether the vote is correct. Think about it, assume the vote is wrong, and you are voting a townie off, then what benefit did you get by voting early?

As above, the process of getting to a successful lynching is an important one. It gives the town a direction and gets them all thinking in an investigative mindset. We can see how people react, see what they do under pressure and analyse for inconsistencies.

Wait and see on the other hand doesn't achieve anything, it just prolongs town losing without incresing its chances of winning. A random lynching isn't as random as it seems because the effort going into successfully getting someome lynched results in a better chance at mafia-lynching than number odds would suggest.

 

[QuickTwist]

Lol what? When I said I'm waiting for day one to be over, obviously I wasn't going to break the "one post every 24 hour" rule because then I'd get kicked off anyway. I just meant I'm waiting for something to happen before starting the suspicion game.

I'm confused a little, why are we voting now? I might have totally missed this in the instructions but when I've played IRL, we vote AFTER the first person is killed. Maybe it is different in this game and I totally missed that.

Anyway, what exactly is the connection between minimal posting and being mafia? I tend to think the overposters are mafia. My first suspicion was Hado.

This post was made after the 24 hour period where you had to post, however, I think you may not have known some things about this game and how it works and that is probably my fault for not explaining things well enough, so I'm going to just say, please post more than once every 24 hours. That goes for everyone. Lurking the game makes the game less fun.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

As above, the process of getting to a successful lynching is an important one. It gives the town a direction and gets them all thinking in an investigative mindset. We can see how people react, see what they do under pressure and analyse for inconsistencies.

Wait and see on the other hand doesn't achieve anything, it just prolongs town losing without incresing its chances of winning. A random lynching isn't as random as it seems because the effort going into successfully getting someome lynched results in a better chance at mafia-lynching than number odds would suggest.

If the process is the important part, can we go through this process as if we are going to lynch someone today, but then ultimately not do it today in order to prolong and preserve the town majority?

Genuinely asking.

This is just a thought I had and figured I'd throw it to the room. I'm fully prepared to hear why that's a dumb idea.

 

[Hadoblado]

The odds of lynching the cop are pretty minimal and also I doubt the cop would silently sit and say so little as to be considered a lurker. It might make them less likely to be NK'd but it also makes it less likely to ever catch the mafia.

Since information is power in this game, not having any input would be bad for any townsperson, cop included. They can only discover pne identity per night, and once you get to night 3 or 4, if you haven't lynched a mafia by that point you're in serious trouble. So I really doubt ruminator's the cop.

I'd put her as either vanilla townie or mafia, and I read mafia more strongly than town at this point - even after input.

I'll jump in here and correct this. Blue roles often mimic red. That is, they're trying to just exist and not as concerned with the legwork of catching people. While they can contribute, if contribution comes with risk of attention, it's common to opt to do less rather than to do more. Since, just like the mafia's nightkill power, they net advantage over time, they want to make sure they stay in as long as possible.
It's not uncommon for lurkers to be blueroles, who wait until day two to be useful.

This all said, we have to trust that if a blue role does get caught in our sights, they'll do enough to warrant not being lynched day one. It's really very easy not to get lynched day one for town, if you're suitably motivated (such as in the case of blue roles). For this reason, it's usually best for town not to concern themselves with who's blue, especially at lower skill levels where it's easy to be led astray. It's the job of scum to hunt power roles, it's town's job to hunt scum.

 

[redbaron]

If the process is the important part, can we go through this process as if we are going to lynch someone today, but then ultimately not do it today in order to prolong and preserve the town majority?

You still need a majority vote to get someone lynched, so if we don't get it then it serves the same effect.

Personally I intend fully to lynch someone I think is mafia, until I see a target that might better represent mafia. I think this is the only sane way for a townsperson to play, since the only thing you know for sure is that you're innocent and that anyone else could be mafia.

This is just a thought I had and figured I'd throw it to the room. I'm fully prepared to hear why that's a dumb idea.

Well I think it's important that mafia don't feel comfortable being accused. Ideally they'd perceive accusations as the very real threat that they are. Taking a backseat or half-commitred role to lynching them gives them wriggle room.

 

[Hadoblado]

Cheeseumpuffs that can work. It's good to be thinking ahead.

However, since nobody's life is on the line, less occurs than if there was someone fighting for there life. It's not going to be as effective, but it's certainly better than inactivity.

Please, can everyone start voting now. We need participation here.