Forum Mafia Game #1

[redbaron]

I think Sinny's mafia.
Zerk is also on my watchlist.

Are you voting for either? I was suspecting Sinny as well because of the relationship between Sinny + QT. I get the impression she's one of the ones he'd be likely to make a mafioso.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

It would be difficult for a mafia to maintain this level of activity.

Why do you say that?

------------------------------

Also, I don't know about you guys, but I actually kind of forgot about the sheriff.

What if our directionless first lynch accidentally takes out the sheriff before they get a chance to even manage one investigation?

Is that a risk worth taking? (not trying to hold off a vote, I'm actually just genuinely asking)

 

[Hadoblado]

Cheeseumpuffs
I'm glad you're aboard.

Why do you think Sinny is mafia?
Why is Zerk on your watch list?

Why is there a difference between who you think are mafia and who's on the watch list? Or who's on the watch list and who's not on the watch list? Does that mean people who are not on your watch list are completely above suspicion?

It's good to point fingers. But we need reasoning behind it. For a mafia, pointing fingers is easy. Giving reasons is hard. Because they're not actually looking for mafia, they're just looking to call people mafia and get away with it.

 

[Happy]

No thanks, Hado.

You're on my radar.

 

[Hadoblado]

QT did not decide roles. He RNGed it.

Ordinarily I'd be suspicious of that (certain entertaining scummers used to be statistically favoured to roll scum where I played), but he has stuck to the letter with Rook. I trust he's being authentic when he says there is no role favoritism.

 

[redbaron]

QT did not decide roles. He RNGed it.

Ordinarily I'd be suspicious of that (certain entertaining scummers used to be statistically favoured to roll scum where I played), but he has stuck to the letter with Rook. I trust he's being authentic when he says there is no role favoritism.

Fair enough. Wasn't prepared to make a vote at this point anyway because she's shown at least some activity. I'd much rather lynch one of the totally inactive people at this point.

They're either mafia or just completely useless, may as well get rid of them before the NK's start racking up.

 

[Happy]

Also, my reasoning behind my reluctance to vote to lynch on day one considers that at this point, we have no hard evidence. These are all just words. After the first night cycle, there will be evidence.

I'm fully aware that I've established myself as a target.

Im also fully aware that I've provided some fuzzy logic.

I'm enjoying this.

 

[redbaron]

Also I'd strongly suggest that all townspeople keep track of who votes for who. I'd be wary of the following

1. people who don't ever vote
2. pointless voters - voting for someone when the majority has already been decided, sincee at that point it's already decided. It's a faux show of input
3. people who consistently vote for the same person, without good reasons for their suspicion

 

[Happy]

In other words, be suspicious of Happy

 

[Helvete]

Wouldn't it be a pretty good red herring for RB and Hado to sling dirt at each other for a while now to disassociate themselves from being mafia. I know they aren't supposed to have spoken privately yet. If they are mafia, the way Hado partially voted RB wouldn't be hard for him to pick up and 'act' upon without cheating or prior discussion.

If lynching really is a good idea now, then I'll vote.

*puts everyone's name on a dart board. Throws a dart blindly. Opens eyes and finds I missed the board completely.*

Where Artsu thou Tharaz? A peaceful but unnerving silence.

 

[Hadoblado]

Yes that would be an impressive but risky play Helvete.

But I have no need to do that. At this point in time, short of some drastically bent group-think, I'm not being lynched night one. NKed? Almost certainly. Lynched? No. Why? Because I'm the worst person to lynch. You have the most information on me, so even if I'm your top scum read, you can afford to keep me around knowing that my case can be made on night two. In the meantime, the level of activity I'm pushing can only be good for town.

On top of which, at this point in time, scum is winning. They got a free modkill.

So if I were scum, I'd be in a really good place by not making risky plays. For the same reasons rich people don't need to steal, I don't need to make risky plays. Because I'm winning if the gamestate continues. All I'd need to do is preserve the gamestate of people not doing anything, and me being the most authoritative player, and I'd have it in the bag.

I'm glad you seem to want to vote. I know you're joking, but please don't RNG. If you vote, we need reasons so we can hold you accountable and have a read on you. A random vote is as meaningless as no vote.

 

[Hadoblado]

@Happy
Every year the world is approaching an apocalyptic event. The science behind the phenomenon is understood, but actually addressing it is difficult. Nevertheless, doom approaches inevitably unless *we* do something.

There is a significant risk that in trying to address the issue, we may accidentally speed it up! What is more rational?
1) Don't do anything for fear of accelerating the apocalypse.
2) Wait for the apocalypse knowing full well you didn't do anything more than the next man to make it worse.

 

[Happy]

3) enjoy all the life has to offer and feel no responsibility to prevent the apocalypse

 

[Hadoblado]

For those that haven't posted much yet, when you do, you're going to have to jump straight into it to make up for the time you've wasted.

Artzu Theraz, you need to post soon to avoid being modkilled.

EBWOP
Shit I made option 1 and 2 the same. The second option should be "do what you can to avoid the apocalypse even if you look stupid if you fuck it up"

 

[Helvete]

For those that haven't posted much yet, when you do, you're going to have to jump straight into it to make up for the time you've wasted.

Artzu Theraz, you need to post soon to avoid being modkilled.

EBWOP
Shit I made option 1 and 2 the same. The second option should be "do what you can to avoid the apocalypse even if you look stupid if you fuck it up"

Don't get mod killed lol...

 

[Artsu Tharaz]

Hey, I'll try to keep active.

It's difficult for me to keep my appointments.

 

[Happy]

Artsu: Busy planning a hit?

 

[Hadoblado]

Don't get mod killed lol...

It was a genuine ebwop. I ebwopped half way through as my eyes wandered to my last post and saw the retardedness. As is evident, that post is still retarded so it's safe to assume I haven't edited it XD

Happy I'm worried about isolating you by getting too far up in your grill. I'm also worried I'm talking so much other people can't get a word in edge-wise. For the record, I actually have a town-read on you, even if I take issue with your approach. I do want you to vote for someone you think is scum, and so please don't confuse my 'attacks' as me trying to get you lynched. Unless something drastic changes, I won't be voting for you.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

Are you voting for either?

Not yet. I figure we have some 40whatever hours left to talk shit out, so actual voting seems useless until the group can form a bit more of a consensus. Me voting for anyone right now doesn't actually achieve anything more than declaring suspicion. So I can say "I think Sinny is mafia" and it achieves the same effect but with the added bonus that if people don't agree I haven't cast a useless vote.

Why do you think Sinny is mafia?

Her posts (as I remember them) haven't been overly constructive. She chimes in by echoing already established distrust of Hado and then responds to my (dumb) suggestion of action with a "I don't need no leader" post that emulates the "too cool for school" attitude I think she would feel at being part of the mafia. Also now that others are starting to pick up their postings she's gone silent, as if to just lay low while you and RB and everyone else can spin their wheels and draw attention to themselves.

Why is Zerk on your watch list?

Just a hunch, honestly. Nothing concrete, but she gives me an itchy feeling.

Why is there a difference between who you think are mafia and who's on the watch list? Or who's on the watch list and who's not on the watch list? Does that mean people who are not on your watch list are completely above suspicion?

No one's above suspicion. I'm prone to limit my certainty about things so I don't feel all that comfortable pointing fingers all over the place. Everyone starts at base level ("you either are or aren't mafia. I dunno"). Then there's the watchlist region ("you make me uneasy but I don't feel super strongly about it") which you and RB are also members of. And then there's the suspicious column.

That's roughly how it's organized in my head at the moment (but my head is fucking dumb and changes its mind often so this organization may change at any moment (I'll try to keep everyone informed if the terminology I use changes shape)).

In other words, be suspicious of Happy

I knew it! vote happy

Wouldn't it be a pretty good red herring for RB and Hado to sling dirt at each other for a while now to disassociate themselves from being mafia. I know they aren't supposed to have spoken privately yet. If they are mafia, the way Hado partially voted RB wouldn't be hard for him to pick up and 'act' upon without cheating or prior discussion.

I've actually had a similar thought. Although Hado denies it, I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

okay joke time is over. I'm getting a good vibe from Happy

unvote happy

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

ebwop

It should be noted that Sinny's silence may also be explained by the fact that it's been sleepytime hours over in the UK.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

Anyways, I'm off to bed. I'll see you all in 7 to 12 hours.

 

[redbaron]

Looks like ESC's going to get modkilled soon. Might have to unvote him.

 

[redbaron]

Hey, I'll try to keep active.

It's difficult for me to keep my appointments.

You were pretty active in a bunch of threads not long ago, what appointments do you have that prevented you from being in this thread?

 

[Hadoblado]

He shouldn't be modkilled now he's posted.

Artsu Tharaz, if you're not interested in playing could you please talk to QT about finding a replacement? If you do it now it won't affect the game too much. If you do it later, it could ruin it.

 

[Hadoblado]

Just realised that ESC and Artzu are different people. Woops.

Looks like things are getting quiet, which isn't good.
ESC, Sinny, Ruminator, Nebulous, Artzu, Puffy, Zerk: Seven lurkers is seven too many. We need you out here posting. Lurkers can survive day one but go into day two with a shaky resume. At least four of you are town, get your collective arse in here.

I'm starting to think that hosting here was a bad idea. There are too many inactives. Town's chances dwindle. If we'd hosted off site we could have had more reliable people playing to at least offset the overwhelming afk.

 

[Nebulous]

Looks like things are getting quiet, which isn't good.
ESC, Sinny, Ruminator, Nebulous, Artzu, Puffy, Zerk: Seven lurkers is seven too many. We need you out here posting. Lurkers can survive day one but go into day two with a shaky resume. At least four of you are town, get your collective arse in here.

Aa I don't like just lurking but I don't know how to be of any use ;o;

 

[Ex-User (11125)]

i had a final guys
anyway back to business

i was very wary of hado at first, but now that i've skimmed through the link you posted, i can see you're following the guidelines written for townies. point is you're too transparent and i guess a mafia is more likely to be more lowkey. ofcourse i still dont really trust you but you're no longer the most suspicious to me
you and redbaron seem to share similar interests but redbaron comes off as way more crafty and much more difficult to read, i would say i distrust redbaron the most at this point but that's probably because he's one of the few who have contributed anything substantial up to now.

ok so my question to all of you is, who are you most likely to vote for given recent development? if things remain as they are i'll probably vote for artsu as i see no point to keeping him/her around. i know you guys talked about avoiding random kills, but at this point i still dont have enough material to extrapolate from so naturally the ones who are not providing any material are the most suspicious to me

also since this thread has picked up, i think ruminator should have something to say now
and why am i on cheese's watchlist? -__-

 

[Helvete]

Neb you must have some suspicions about some members here?

Hado is acting as the informative and to the letter of the link he posted. He's trying to make it abundantly clear we should be talking to establish ourselves as non mafia. Why not do this as mafia? It's so early we cannot make any solid accusations about anyone it would be an ideal move to act that way. He is correct that the inactivity of seven users is bad though, which has now prompted another reply.

I would hazard the inactivity is less suspicious as it seems and that at least two mafia would have tried to clear themselves by now, if not all of them.
There is much indecisiveness that is completely reasonable which could explain all the inactivity.

 

[Hadoblado]

I'm about to go to bed, so I'll make this quick.

Nebulous. What are your thoughts on redbaron and cheeseumpuffs? Is anyone more suspicious to you than these guys? Why/why not?

Zerkalo: wait reals? I hope it went well.

If we lynch a lurker, so be it. I'd prefer not too, but I'm not your real dad. Whether we lynch a lurker or not, we should focus on making cases on people that have done things. I can basically guarantee you that at least one of the actives is mafia, probably two and one lurker. Cases can span days, you don't have to immediately lynch those you think are guilty. For instance, even if RB was my top read (he's not), I would not lynch him day one. Why? Because he's contributing a good amount. So I'm happy to wait, and the more he contributes the more I have to nail him with, and/or to gain when we do catch him.

My personal preference for first lynch would be a demi-lurker or semi-active. Someone who's not contributing much, but is saying things that are suspicious. Kudos/amnesty to anyone who guesses who I'm talking about specifically.

@QT
Any chance of replacing Artzu and/or ESC?

 

[Hadoblado]

EBWOP:
Awkward when Helvete ninjas half the things you're saying.

 

[Nebulous]

Hado, you're pretty suspicious just because you've been posting so much, and so enthusiastically. If you are mafia and you're trying to throw off suspicion you're sorta overdoing it. You're smart, I think you'd realize that. Unless you considered that and went with the enthusiastic townie strategy.

I really don't have enough info to make any assumptions on the others.

 

[Helvete]

EBWOP

Lynching inactivity right now seems futile and dangerous, even if they are not presenting themselves as useful. Lynching activity seems equally as dangerous for potentially losing resourceful townies.

I think lynching some middle ground would be informative without being overly detrimental; any lynching seems dicey but here seems to be the best tradeoff.

1. Hadoblado
2. Nebulous
3. Happy
4. Zerkalo
5. ruminator
6. redbaron
7. Puffy
9. Helvete
10. Cheeseumpuffs
11. Sinny91
12. EyeSeeCold
13. Artsu Tharaz

Green active, yellow somewhat active, orange somewhat inactive, red inactive.

Yellow or Orange?

 

[Puffy]

I'm back and just cooking dinner then I'll read the thread.

Before I do can I just say I don't like being called a lurker when I've legitimately posted every opportunity I have and when I've given notice I won't be here. I do manual work (gardening) as a job and its not possible for me to look at this while working.

As an act of good faith, I'm going to change my forum status from invisible to visible, so you can see when I am online so you know I'm not lurking. hado has my permission to confirm this for you.

While I don't expect the same from you all, I would say that hado is a mod and can see you're online reading this thread if you're lurking it in invisible mode. Refusing this only gives me more reason to think you could be mafia.

brb

 

[Puffy]

Done.

 

[Puffy]

hado has my permission to confirm this for you.

had a dumb, I meant he has my permission to confirm if he sees me using invisible mode.

 

[QuickTwist]

Vote redbaron

Unvote redbaron

Vote EyeSeeCold

vote happy

unvote happy

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:

1. Hadoblado - 0
2. Nebulous - 0
3. Happy - 0
4. Zerkalo - 0
5. ruminator - 0
6. redbaron - 0
7. Puffy - 0
8. Rook - 0
9. Helvete - 0
10. Cheeseumpuffs - 0
11. Sinny91 - 0
12. EyeSeeCold - 1, redbaron
13. Artsu Tharaz - 0

Prodding Artsu Tharaz - You have not posted and it has been more than 24 hours since the game started. If you do not post within the next 18 hours, you will be modkilled.

 

[QuickTwist]

Day ends in ~ 1 day, 6 hours, 16 min.

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdow...159&msg=Forum+Mafia+Day+1+Ending&font=cursive

 

[QuickTwist]

Prodding Artsu Tharaz - You have not posted and it has been more than 24 hours since the game started. If you do not post within the next 18 hours, you will be modkilled.

Need to make a correction here.

I see Artsu Tharaz has posted in the thread, so the warning is no longer applies, however, I will need to see a confirmation in the QT I linked to him or he will be modkilled. I got a confirmation via PM, but that is not the way you are supposed to do it because I still have no guarantee that you know your role that way.

So the next time we do this you should all know that you must confirm in the QT I link to you, otherwise I don't know if you are playing blindly not knowing your role.

 

[Puffy]

My 2 cents.

I still think voting off someone who could be a strong player is an obviously anti-town move at this point. Because in the event that person is town we've done a large part of the mafia's job for them, freeing up their kill to take out the next strongest at an early stage in the game.

It makes sense to vote off one of the most inactive as:

A) at least one of the mafia is likely aiming to play this way
B) it will push other people into actively participating, making it more likely to catch mafia out
C) they're the ones who've shown themselves so far to be least useful to the town

When I first read ESC's post I was suspicious but on reflection I think he's new to the game and was unsure what to say. Potentially same for nebulous, but I don't like how nebulous and ruminator are trying to justify being inactive. I'm going to vote Ruminator as s/he's explicitly said s/he's not posting until the next round and will unvote if s/he contributes something meaningful or I think it better to vote for someone else.

I'm not working tomorrow btw so will try to be more active earlier in the day as I seem to be missing out on a lot of action from Hado/Rb/Helvete/Happy's time zone.

 

[Puffy]

p.s. I just signed out and realised this thread can be lurked offline. My bad, I thought gaming was in inner sanctum.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

ok so my question to all of you is, who are you most likely to vote for given recent development? if things remain as they are i'll probably vote for artsu as i see no point to keeping him/her around. i know you guys talked about avoiding random kills, but at this point i still dont have enough material to extrapolate from so naturally the ones who are not providing any material are the most suspicious to me

also since this thread has picked up, i think ruminator should have something to say now
and why am i on cheese's watchlist? -__-

Sinny's still my number one. Artsu, ESC, and Ruminator are probably next on my list (mostly for inactivity rather than actual suspicion. I'd say probably at least two of them are regular townies). Then Hado and RB. Then everyone else.

Your posts gave me a bad feeling which has since gone away.

I can basically guarantee you that at least one of the actives is mafia, probably two and one lurker.

Who do you define as an active? Is your list similar to Helvete's colored one, or do you have different criteria?

My personal preference for first lynch would be a demi-lurker or semi-active. Someone who's not contributing much, but is saying things that are suspicious.

This sounds reasonable. I'm still leaning towards punishing inactivity. So Sinny and Ruminator are probably my first votes, as they both have (small) posting history and are now silent.

Kudos/amnesty to anyone who guesses who I'm talking about specifically

Nebulous?

Lynching inactivity right now seems futile and dangerous, even if they are not presenting themselves as useful.

Why dangerous?

I'm not sure I follow the reasoning for why killing an outright lurker is a poor choice. Maybe someone could talk me through that?

I think lynching some middle ground would be informative without being overly detrimental; any lynching seems dicey but here seems to be the best tradeoff.

1. Hadoblado
2. Nebulous
3. Happy
4. Zerkalo
5. ruminator
6. redbaron
7. Puffy
9. Helvete
10. Cheeseumpuffs
11. Sinny91
12. EyeSeeCold
13. Artsu Tharaz

I still think voting off someone who could be a strong player is an obviously anti-town move at this point. Because in the event that person is town we've done a large part of the mafia's job for them, freeing up their kill to take out the next strongest at an early stage in the game.

It makes sense to vote off one of the most inactive as:

A) at least one of the mafia is likely aiming to play this way
B) it will push other people into actively participating, making it more likely to catch mafia out
C) they're the ones who've shown themselves so far to be least useful to the town

I find my line of thinking aligning most with Puffy's post here.

As of now I'm wanting to vote Sinny. Followed by Ruminator, Esc, Artsu, Nebulous, Happy. In that order.


I don't have much more to add, as I've just woken up. I'll check back in over the next couple hours.

 

[Sinny91]

Are you voting for either? I was suspecting Sinny as well because of the relationship between Sinny + QT. I get the impression she's one of the ones he'd be likely to make a mafioso.

Role assignment is random, as has been noted.

Not yet. I figure we have some 40whatever hours left to talk shit out, so actual voting seems useless until the group can form a bit more of a consensus. Me voting for anyone right now doesn't actually achieve anything more than declaring suspicion. So I can say "I think Sinny is mafia" and it achieves the same effect but with the added bonus that if people don't agree I haven't cast a useless vote.

Her posts (as I remember them) haven't been overly constructive. She chimes in by echoing already established distrust of Hado and then responds to my (dumb) suggestion of action with a "I don't need no leader" post that emulates the "too cool for school" attitude I think she would feel at being part of the mafia. Also now that others are starting to pick up their postings she's gone silent, as if to just lay low while you and RB and everyone else can spin their wheels and draw attention to themselves.

But they have been overtly constructive. I have opening declared myself 'Townie', which is more than can be said for all of us. I've made my presence and agenda known. I moved house yesterday. Wi-Fi is not on, but I just hooked up a hotspot. So take that into account.

As it happens, I am too cool for school. I don't appreciate anyone going round electing leaders without any prior discourse. Way to get the herd moving, I'm sure... But in which direction, I'm not.

Steady wins the race.

ebwop

It should be noted that Sinny's silence may also be explained by the fact that it's been sleepytime hours over in the UK.

And that, I slept for ... 14 hours?

I love sleep.

Looks like things are getting quiet, which isn't good.
ESC, Sinny, Ruminator, Nebulous, Artzu, Puffy, Zerk: Seven lurkers is seven too many. We need you out here posting. Lurkers can survive day one but go into day two with a shaky resume. At least four of you are town, get your collective arse in here.

I'm starting to think that hosting here was a bad idea. There are too many inactives. Town's chances dwindle. If we'd hosted off site we could have had more reliable people playing to at least offset the overwhelming afk.

Reporting for duty!

EBWOP

Lynching inactivity right now seems futile and dangerous, even if they are not presenting themselves as useful. Lynching activity seems equally as dangerous for potentially losing resourceful townies.

I think lynching some middle ground would be informative without being overly detrimental; any lynching seems dicey but here seems to be the best tradeoff.

1. Hadoblado
2. Nebulous
3. Happy
4. Zerkalo
5. ruminator
6. redbaron
7. Puffy
9. Helvete
10. Cheeseumpuffs
11. Sinny91
12. EyeSeeCold
13. Artsu Tharaz

Green active, yellow somewhat active, orange somewhat inactive, red inactive.

Yellow or Orange?

Guys, I only went to sleep. I should at least be orange.

My ratings of suspicion:

Helvete
Puffy
Zerk
CheesyP
Rook
Sinny (I know my role, and I'm free to tell you all)

redbaron
Nebulous
Artsu
Had
Eyes

Happy
Ruminator

Due to varying degrees of shady behavior.

 

[EyeSeeCold]

I'm here, I'm here.

As others have been saying I don't see the need to vote so early there's no pattern to establish as of yet, we should wait until the mafia makes there move. Unless you guys are expert veterans then go ahead.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

But they have been overtly constructive. I have opening declared myself 'Townie', which is more than can be said for all of us. I've made my presence and agenda known.

Oh, really? Why don't we take a look at literally all of your posts so far and see why that is demonstrably untrue.

Ha, I was thinking the same.

... Right, where's the bloody boozer around here?

Hmm, not constructive. No declaration of townhood.

In the name of transparency:

I've read the rules, I'm a few pages into the tips, and I've never played before.

Seems straightforward enough.

Give em enough rope, and they'll hang them selves.

Not constructive. No declaration of townhood.

Agreed.

That would only be in our best interests if he was actually a Townie, with the towns best interests at heart. That's yet to be determined. I would prefer that he be more forthright.

Echoing established distrust of Hado. Not constructive. No declaration of townhood.

I don't need a leader.

It's rather early for voting. Hado is obviously trying to spice things up. I'm happy to take it slow. 

Not constructive. No declaration of townhood.

Ugh, and these editing rules are going to be a personal challenge. 

Watch me have a stoner moment and get modkilled.

Not constructive. No declaration of townhood.

And that, I slept for ... 14 hours?

I love sleep.

Yeah, me too. I included that as evidence towards your possible innocence.

Guys, I only went to sleep. I should at least be orange.

You are orange at best.

My ratings of suspicion:

Helvete
Puffy
Zerk
CheesyP
Rook
Sinny (I know my role, and I'm free to tell you all)

redbaron
Nebulous
Artsu
Had
Eyes

Happy
Ruminator

Due to varying degrees of shady behavior.

What shady behavior has landed Happy and Ruminator in the bottom? Why are the greens greens? And the oranges oranges?

 

[Sinny91]

Ha, I had a feeling you'd follow up with such.

Well, I was inferring as much.

Ruminator just isn't posting, something we all seem to want to discourage .. and Happy is openly being shady and not giving shit or attempting to put anyone's fears to rest.

 

[Sinny91]

I think Helvete, Puffy and Zerk have all made Towns people like posts...

I distrust how Baron started off inactive, then became active to decry people being inactive. Maybe a few OTT long posts, such as Hado too. Not sure if they are trying to muddy the waters. And I'm starting to distrust your finger pointing at me. Survival instinct and all that. Neb, Artsu an Eyes just haven't said a lot to sway me in either direction.

 

[Puffy]

I find my line of thinking aligning most with Puffy's post here.

As of now I'm wanting to vote Sinny. Followed by Ruminator, Esc, Artsu, Nebulous, Happy. In that order.

I don't have much more to add, as I've just woken up. I'll check back in over the next couple hours.

I think sinny and happy have given more information than the others you've listed here, even before sinny's recent posts.

Imo:

ESC -- Of the four others you've mentioned I think he's the most likely to be town. He's always struck me as a conservative person from our interactions. I'm willing to believe this is his first game as he's said, and his play so far isn't inconsistent with how I think he'd play a town role.

Nebulous & ruminator are probably not both mafia, and maybe neither of them are. But I'm cautious of how both are essentially getting a free ticket through the round. While I don't feel I have enough info to go beyond an intuition on pinpointing mafia, I know I can pinpoint unhelpful behaviour with more confidence, and would rather use my votes towards the practical end of discouraging it.

I voted ruminator, as nebulous has been posting occasionally at least, and gave artsu the benefit of the doubt as he entered the game late, but it occurs to me he'll probably try and use this to his advantage to get through the first round without saying anything. I'd consider changing my vote to him if ruminator posts, he remains inactive, and the sway of conversation doesn't persuade me otherwise.

 

[EyeSeeCold]

After Rook's mishap we're down to 3 mafia, 1 sheriff, and 8 regulars.

We have a sheriff?

 

[redbaron]

I don't really consider Hado suspicious this early.

Initially I did, but then I thought: suspicious in relation to what? When others are offering so little, it's easy to pin Hado as suspicious for things he's saying. If other people were all as active as he was, maybe they'd be even more suspicious.

As for my own "suspicious" inactivity: this thread was posted 2 hours before I went to bed. I checked in to let it be known I was here, then posted the next day. Sleep =/= inactive.

Also I've offered a lot of tips for townies to make use of. It'd be a pretty huge gambit for a mafia to not just feign townshipness but to literally help the town as well. At least, doing it so early should be a tell that I'm town.

Not going to do a suspicion list because I think it makes it too easy for mafia to fly under radars since they know exactly where they stand. Also I don't want to make other townies feel uncomfortable if I have no good reasons for my suspicion.

Right now I'm going for people whose strategies or comments don't match up with being pro-townie and weighing whether it's one of a few things:

1. Deliberate
2. Innocent accidental
3. Guilty accidental
4. Personal preference that doesn't reflect alignment so much as the player's whims

So instead I'll just list who I have good reasons for my suspicion or lack thereof.

Hado: to me reads as the most town, because he's been the most active and informative - he's helped us all become better town players as a result of his comments. If he's mafia, so be it at this point - he's actually helping us and causing an information stir. If he's not dead after 1 or 2 NK's and it seems odd, he can still be majority lynched but right now he's pro-town and he's the one we have the most dirt on. A hasty lynching seems silly.

Ruminator: likely mafia. Isn't offering anything pro-town. She may be an innocent but inactive townie, but that's not helpful to us either.

ESC: likely mafia. How easy would it be to feign being novice for pity's sake? If simply again an inactive townie, not helping us.

Artsu: As above.

Happy: likely town. He's being a bit too careless with his "oh look at me be suspicious of me guys!!" to be mafia. It's actually cringey, but that's an important tell: it'd be a massive risk for a mafia so early on. He could be very inexperienced and be actual mafia, but I think he'd be smart enough not to make such mistakes so early on.

Everything of course subject to change, but those are my strongest early reads. Need more time for others.