Agreed, I think seeing how people interact with different people will be one of the best ways to get tells. I'm unsure how quite to go about this though. I would still strongly suggest pressuring inactives in the next round as bringing in a greater variety of people is surely the best means of getting a diversity of interactions overall. We could also just start directly asking people for their opinions on other posters?
I agree that a lynch is better than no lynch and if the consensus wants to go with Nebulous I'm fine with it. As I said a few pages back, I rate them at a similar level of suspicion and think targeting an inactive in this round is better for town overall.
This stuff requires action Artzu. If you don't feel like playing, that's fine. Try and get replaced. ATM your mood issues are threatening to ruin our game. I'm sorry if this is pointed, believe me when I say I understand.
ATM my thoughts on you are this: If you're genuinely feeling bad enough that you don't feel you can post, then you should avoid feeling worse by ruining our game and making people angry at you. This means getting replaced. We are on a clock here. If you are mafia just trying to slip by using your condition as an excuse, then I need to hammer you for it. I don't want to do that if you're genuinely having issues. That'd make me feel like shit.
So the ball's in your court. Talk to QT about getting replaced if you have the empathy for others you're expecting from us, or play the game. But don't try to play the game while you don't think you can, because that's not going to be pleasant for you or anybody else.
Cheeseumpuffs:
I know this is deadly dangerous territory, but if you will, what's your stance on MBTI and your type specifically? Yes I'm trying to read you.
I implore the town not to lynch anyone before the day is over. Some say it is better that we lynch now rather than wait for a NK however the chances of lynching a mafioso are 1:4. That may be good enough for roulette but consider that if we take down one of our own today, the mafia will certainly take down another tonight and we will have lost 3 members by then.
So please, hold your votes and let the mafia make their move. I pray for the poor soul who is to be sacrificed but this is necessary lest we make it easier for them.
If you are fixed in your convictions then at least plead your case with solid reasoning.
I considered that myself. However I think at this point I'm about as confirmed town as I'm ever going to get. I know you think you're going to die to first NK, but I'm pretty convinced that it's going to be me.
The only other possibility I can think of is that we are both kept alive, in the hopes that by doing so the other townspeople will become even more suspicious of our "over" activity and then kill one of us off for a free town kill.
If you are both alive by tomorrow, I will reaffirm my suspicions for hado. He is the prime kill for mafia as the most active in the town and his survival could only mean that he is one of them.
On the other hand if you or hado are NKd then I reaffirm my suspicions of Happy and Neb.
There's no such thing as solid reasoning in mafia. All there is is more and less solid reasoning. There will never be the certainty you're waiting for. We wait for NK. What then? The mafia get access to 100% of our posts. They see our trajectory and will plot it for us if given the chance. The only thing we can do is wriggle so violently they can't control us without tipping their hand.
You've also put yourself in a terrible position from which to offer advice. You are a lurker, who's contribution so far has been "please don't lynch people". Lynching is not random, it's got better than bad odds, which is the only alternative you're offering. The odds are not 1 in 4, but empirically, closer to 50%. Which is a damn sight better than the 0% that non-action gives.
So please, hold your votes and let the mafia make their move. I pray for the poor soul who is to be sacrificed but this is necessary lest we make it easier for them.
This specifically is wrong. Mafia need make no move in order to emerge victorious. All they need do is wait. Waiting = death.
This game puts me in the awkward position of sounding a lot like the fearmongerers I so hate in real life. But consider this: given infinite power over circumstance, any position can become adaptive. If God were to make all jews zombie vampire werewolves then the holocaust might not look so bad. Mafia is a game: as simulated universe with a calculated ruleset designed to manufactured drama and tension. It would be a boring game if waiting was a viable strategy. The heuristics that work in real life don't apply here. We need to turn on one another to the extent that we can find a valid reason to do so, as unintuitive as that is. If you're wondering why please read my post history, I've explained numerous times.
I'm not offering this for the benefit of others. I think most people get this by now. But you've been inactive and are probably paying less attention. So please, acknowledge that it's absolutely bizarre that the mafia universe could even be realistically suggested to work this way, and explore the reasons behind why I might be comfortable in proclaiming as much.
I need you to 180 on this, and if you have any conviction in your position, you need to stop me urging everyone else into voting. So explore why I'm able to get away with pushing such an intuitively flawed agenda, and come at me. Stop pissing about with throw-away preachings with no reasoning behind them that can't possibly convince anyone who's not already as confused as you are.
And yes, both RB and I surviving tonight would be suspicious as fuck. That at least is good reasoning.
EBWOP Zerkalo: why do you see it as suspicious for a 'camp' to form around ruminator when by your reasoning ruminator was also inactive and consequently dangerous? It just seems odd to me, as we don't have as much information on artsu I feel to make an informed lynch on him, and ruminator at the time had explicitly said she wouldn't post until day 2?
ok let's go back to the beginning: thread started picking up pace when people started voting for inactives to pressure them into activity. which was fine by me bc it worked and nobody seemed serious about the votes. but then i started to notice that every single one of the inactives(including sinny and neb) were voted for or openly accused of being mafia at some point except artzu, i had my suspicions so i kept bringing artsu back into the picture to see what you guys will do but my posts kept getting ignored for some reason
one other thing i found suspicious was how redbaron called people to follow suit and vote for ruminator and said that this vote will be of use to us even if ruminator turns out to be a townie, but then makes the outcome of cheese's vote for nebulous detrimental to his(cheese) stay in the game
and yeah it doesnt look anyone else will vote for artzu so my vote is vacuous atm, i will see how things develop and change my vote later(or maybe keep it, who knows...depends on how things develop). so it would be nice if more people start writing their opinion on what others have done or said thus far
ok let's go back to the beginning: thread started picking up pace when people started voting for inactives to pressure them into activity. which was fine by me bc it worked and nobody seemed serious about the votes. but then i started to notice that every single one of the inactives(including sinny and neb) were voted for or openly accused of being mafia at some point except artzu, i had my suspicions so i kept bringing artsu back into the picture to see what you guys will do but my posts kept getting ignored for some reason
one other thing i found suspicious was how redbaron called people to follow suit and vote for ruminator and said that this vote will be of use to us even if ruminator turns out to be a townie, but then makes the outcome of cheese's vote for nebulous detrimental to his(cheese) stay in the game
and yeah it doesnt look anyone else will vote for artzu so my vote is vacuous atm, i will see how things develop and change my vote later(or maybe keep it, who knows...depends on how things develop). so it would be nice if more people start writing their opinion on what others have done or said thus far
Okay, thanks for getting back to me on this, zerkalo. I'm about to see my new landlord to sort out a tenancy agreement, so I can't do a detailed post right now but I will be sure to get back to this thread before the end of day to change my vote if needed.
There's no such thing as solid reasoning in mafia. All there is is more and less solid reasoning. There will never be the certainty you're waiting for. We wait for NK. What then? The mafia get access to 100% of our posts. They see our trajectory and will plot it for us if given the chance. The only thing we can do is wriggle so violently they can't control us without tipping their hand.
We wait for NK and see who survives which immediately establishes two patterns: activity of those most likely to be mafia and activity of those who are townie. Right now you and redbaron seem the most suspicious for bandwagoning votes to fast track a lynching, of course a mafia would be eager to get rid of a townie, so if neither of you are dead by tomorrow then we know mafia doesn't bandwagon.
and yeah it doesnt look anyone else will vote for artzu so my vote is vacuous atm, i will see how things develop and change my vote later(or maybe keep it, who knows...depends on how things develop). so it would be nice if more people start writing their opinion on what others have done or said thus far
We wait for NK and see who survives which immediately establishes two patterns: activity of those most likely to be mafia and activity of those who are townie. Right now you and redbaron seem the most suspicious for bandwagoning votes to fast track a lynching, of course a mafia would be eager to get rid of a townie, so if neither of you are dead by tomorrow then we know mafia doesn't bandwagon.
Zerkalo you have no conviction so you get steamrolled.
Instead of saying 'I found this suspicious', which is hedging your bets, you say 'this is what happened'.
You can maintain the duality in your mind between what your spoken convictions are and your inner doubt, but in the public arena there is no room for doubt. It is literally the case that no town-minded person should listen to you if you're unwilling to put your weight behind a claim.
The reason being, if you hedge your bets, then if you're scum you can then jump ship easily. Scum are reactive. If you commit, in truthfulness, even if you're wrong you'll look more townlike. Which is like the opposite of #INTPmantra I know, but isn't it fucking interesting that that's the case? (implications for real life aren't as extreme, but are still there).
As transparent as I'm being with many things, I'm still holding some reserve. In this game in particular, I've been keeping my red reads close to my chest, because I won't be able to tell who's scumjumping and who's genuinely just so confused they need to bandwagon. In a game where there were more experienced players, I would have already acted on my suspicions because the reactions I then observe would be telling.
We wait for NK and see who survives which immediately establishes two patterns: activity of those most likely to be mafia and activity of those who are townie. Right now you and redbaron seem the most suspicious for bandwagoning votes to fast track a lynching, of course a mafia would be eager to get rid of a townie, so if neither of you are dead by tomorrow then we know mafia doesn't bandwagon.
Read the rest of the thread because there's A LOT of things wrong that have been extensively discussed previously.
If you're a townie you're doing everyone a disservice. Calling for a bandwagon isn't what I'm doing. I'm arguing against placidity because it's a bad town strategy.
The surest way to win for town is assertive proactivity, not placidity.
Guys take it easy, I'm gonna typo it up for the next few hours cos drankst. I demand temporary amnesty from the hatred my more immediate stupidity invites.
ESC. Stop calling me Mafioso. That's not a considered argument. That's slander. ESCasioso(?)
By your own standards (I think), that's not reasonable. The sole exception I'll accept is in hypotheticals where you're assuming me scum. Otherwise it's just scummy to resort to such uncommitted tactics. Say it directly to my face and with reasoning or not at all, otherwise I'm going to assume you're scum. Real suspicions have reasoning behind them. Not just word play.
Also, while I'm not pushing on zerkalo, your reasoning that them not bandwagonning means they're town is putrid bile dogshit. Scummers don't want to look like they're bandwagonning. The best case scenario for them is for town to bandwagon of their own volition while sitting back not doing anything. If they see a bandwagon forming that won't hit scum, they have no reason to intervene. All they need do is park their votes on people that won't be lynched (or better yet, be all humanitarian and unsuccessfully try to persuade people not to bandwagon on humanitarian grounds), and not only do they secure a town kill, they look more townlike.
So for you to conclude that this is townlike, to not do anything... I'm finding it difficult to assimilate the behaviour of a town ESC into the overarching impression I have of you as a smart individual.
if you guys(RB and hado) are really townies(i do have a hunch atleast one of you is townie bc you're doing such a intentionally shit job so far :P, i dont think mafia would gamble so much), then you're digging your own graves guys
you've been saying one of you will definitely get NKed on first night, but what if that doesn't happen? then you'll say the next night, but what if you still dont get NKed? then people would start suspecting you for reals and you'll get voted for...thats why i dont really understand what you guys are going for.
it makes more sense to pick apart people's contributions thus far or implore them to contribute more often before voting, bc the spotlight is doing you a disservice imo. we already lost a townie, so if you do blind finger pointing and it turns out to be another townie, and then dont even get NKed then you havent achieved much. anyway if you persist in your ways, then i'll follow suit if im still unsure as to who to vote for. but that's only for day 1
The reason being, if you hedge your bets, then if you're scum you can then jump ship easily. Scum are reactive. If you commit, in truthfulness, even if you're wrong you'll look more townlike.
I disagree. Scum are most likely to be proactive, especially on the first day. On the first day they haven't talked among themselves yet so their #1 priority is getting someone lynched to make it easier, as well as putting in the most effort to fit in and assuage doubt.
To be perfectly honest, having perused a bunch of mafia game forums, the only two people not doing a terrible job of 'Town' are Cheesums, Hado and myself.
Our playstyles are consistent seem sloppy and inconsistent - but that's how Town has to start because they start from a point of ZERO information and the only way they eventually win is by flinging as much mud around as possible and seeing what sticks.
What I don't understand is what you don't understand, if you've read everything posted. Condensed:
1. Time and waiting inherently benefits mafia. It doesn't do anything for town.
2. The only way for Town to win, is to lynch mafia.
3. The only way to find mafia, is to force them to talk or be a cop*
4. The only way to force them to talk, is to pressure them into doing so.
5. The only way to pressure them, is to make both lurking and lynching a real threat to them.
Hado, Cheesums and I are literally the only two people who're doing anything that can benefit the town in the long-term at this point. I have little reason to suspect either Cheesums or Hado as being more likely mafia than someone who's doing things that don't benefit the town.
ESC
Go through the thread and read the multiple paragraphs explaining how mafia are under no pressure to make a lynch happen because if no lynches happen they win by default.
Then reconcile your views with the fact that because mafia win by default, not only do they not need to do anything, they actively want nothing to happen.
Then get back to me. Because I've already been accused of repeating myself, and your current position implies you need me to repeat myself further. Luckily my last X rants waere immortalised in text for your convenience.
Until you can come up with a real argument for why doing nothing helps town who also happen to auto-lose if nothing happens, you need to get your shit together. Gather it all up and put it in a pile. Together. Get your shit together.
I think his reasoning is that Nebulous being town casts my seemingly out-of-the-blue vote for him (her?) in a bad light, which makes me look suspiciously like a mafia trying to steer the vote away from a possible fellow mafia.
So for RB I don't think it's about ruminator's connection to Nebulous but rather to me.
ie. if I'm wrong and Nebulous is town, then I'm fucked and so is ruminator by (very tenuous) association.
I'm just about to leave the library (been printing some documents) but it just occurred to me to say in case I come back when you and rb are asleep.
If you and RB are really sure you're going to die what gain is there in keeping your reads close to your chest? Worst case scenario you get killed and the town is worse off information wise for it. Like if you write up a detailed case on someone you suspect and why, and then suddenly you die, doesn't that give the town more credence to then suspect that person who might have killed you off to get your attention off of them in the next round?
Overall I think it puts way more pressure on the mafia's night phase and shakes up their strategy. Also, in the case you were left alive because you guessed correctly or the mafia wanted to set up who you guessed, it increases the likelihood you will survive to the next round and the town gets to keep a strong player for longer.
In honesty, you and RB are really low on my suspects list. I haven't been focusing on critiquing the more active (but plan to) as I'm getting familiar with the game and thought it more useful in most scenarios to focus on lynching who have been the least useful members.
I'm unsure if I will be able to get back to you because of my appointment, so sorry I can't go into more detail, but I thought it important to throw this post out there for critique before I go as it could severely effect the mafia's night-game.
My intention is to post a case in the next two hours. To let at least some of my chest truths come loose. The biggest obstacle to this intention is my drinkingness and just how headbangingly amazing music sounds to me right now. Also there is a person in my house that I'm not used to, so I'm spending a lot of time launching covert missions to the fridge for all my eaty needs. Shshshhhh.
Shit I'll just come out and say it. I suspect cheeseumpuffs. Pretty damn strongly.
Unvote WhoeverIVotedBefore
Vote Cheeseumpuffs
I'm just going through the thread trying to reappraise, then I'll see if the case I have is worth posting.
And yes that's an invitation for anyone who thinks cheeseumpuffs to defend him, but if it's contextual and not policy, please hold off until (oh god I'm going to have to get up at 7am) three hours before lynch or he's addressed my barbaric attacks, whichever comes sooner.
@ruminator: noble, but unnecessary
@Hado: cheers for the thought, mate...
@Sinny: damn girl, enough with the subliminal messages!
@Puffy: frighteningly ambiguous...
@Happy: that's no way to greet an old friend...
@Cheeseum: I've played knifesy-spoonsies before...
artsu binch you have some catching up to do. your homework is to write what you think of what's been happening here up to this point(no one liners, a proper post) and why you suspect those whom you suspect
if it's convincing, i'll unvote you
ciao <3 i'll be back later
Loosening them all at once diffuses the strength of the suspicion. By keeping it narrow it means that we're more likely to be productive in getting at least one of my suspects lynched. As of right now I'm perfectly fine with Nebulous.
If Nebulous gets lynched and it turns out she was town, that'd confirm for me that Cheesums is highly likely mafia and that Ruminator is likely mafia too.
At this point I really don't care which of those 3 is lynched, just that one of them is. Nebulous is the greatest bang for buck imo because her lynching will be one of two things in my eyes: A successful scum lynch OR a successful scum implication (and swift-lynching to follow). 1 town and 1 mafia is a great trade for Town statistically.
On the other hand if we just outright lynch Cheesums and it turns out he was town? I'd say that makes Nebulous more likely to be mafia, but not as sure a bet as Cheesums and Ruminator being mafia if we lynch Nebulous and she turns out to be town.
I'm suspicious of Ruminator already, Cheesums was less so until he made the play on Nebulous - and the way that he sort of preaches a 'lynch but not really lynch' just doesn't sit right with me.
He's also folding to the reasoning of Hadoblado and I at every turn where we stand our ground, like he doesn't want to really antagonize us or draw too much attention to the fact that he's quite clever.
If Nebulous gets lynched and it turns out she was town, that'd confirm for me that Cheesums is highly likely mafia and that Ruminator is likely mafia too.
I am town. Why would it confirm that Cheesums is almost definitely mafia? I don't exactly follow the reasoning in that. He does seem sorta suspicious though.
I could see ruminators as the cop, like zerkalo said earlier. I don't want to kill the cop. Maybe the reason ruminator said she'd wait till after night one to post is because she was sorta telling us that she's the cop. The cop can ask at night, right? So she'd get some info and then use it but she's trying to not explicitly state that she's the cop so she isn't targeted by the mafia.
At this point I really don't care which of those 3 is lynched, just that one of them is. Nebulous is the greatest bang for buck imo because her lynching will be one of two things in my eyes: A successful scum lynch OR a successful scum implication (and swift-lynching to follow). 1 town and 1 mafia is a great trade for Town statistically.
Well you're not gonna get a successful scum lynch by killing me. You might get a scum implication but idk exactly how that would play out. If you guys think it's worth it.. I mean I don't want to sacrifice myself because it'd be fun to stay in the game, but I can't do much to stop a lynch against me
I'm trying to mentally and emotionally prepare myself for death rn
On the other hand if we just outright lynch Cheesums and it turns out he was town? I'd say that makes Nebulous more likely to be mafia, but not as sure a bet as Cheesums and Ruminator being mafia if we lynch Nebulous and she turns out to be town.
I'm suspicious of Ruminator already, Cheesums was less so until he made the play on Nebulous - and the way that he sort of preaches a 'lynch but not really lynch' just doesn't sit right with me.
Neb, don't concern yourself with who the cop is. Again, that's who a mafia is looking for, not a town. You need to trust that your blue role won't be so incompetent as to come last place in a 12 player race in which multiple participants are most like that snubby bitch group that weren't really the popular kids in highschool but ingrouped so hard they were able to establish certain norms such as walking during cross country.
Also, people need to stop this shit. Don't get me wrong accuse away if you think I'm scum and have [like a single fucking] reason for doing so. But when you do. Umm.. Fucking reasoning. Nobody gives a fuck about your unarticulatable feels. Tell me why I'm a very bad man damn it!
Because seriously. Everyone's pointing their middle finger instead of their index. It makes us all look low SES tbh. Tell me why you hate me. Any ignorant college campus hippy can hate the man. Explicitly state why it's worth it for others to also hate the man.
Speaking of hating the man. Sinny, I want to clear you, but I need information so could you please fucking show up already. I mean seriously... Just fucking. Exist. In the game preferably. And answer my questions please. I need more of you in my lyfe.
Holy fuck nvm she's here. Wake and sate (my awkwardly injected thirst for knowledge) motherfucker!
What are your thoughts on the happenings so far? Who's scum, who's town? You've got a chance of being green in my eyes depending on your answers, which is a position not many people are fortunate enough to share.
What are your thoughts on the happenings so far? Who's scum, who's town? You've got a chance of being green in my eyes depending on your answers, which is a position not many people are fortunate enough to share.
So far I've read the following reasons behind Hado being mafia:
1. He talks a lot (terrible mafia tell)
2. He wants to lynch people (terrible mafia tell)
3. He could be tricking us by being good at town but secretly being mafia! (possible, but not plausible at this stage and this is something you could say about literally any player: "Weeeellllthey COULD be mafia!!!" Well, no shit? The entire premise of the game is that it involves mafia and it could be anyone. Surely you'd have some better reason for why he's mafia than that?)
4. It's better to wait to lynch someone (literally fucking NO X 10000000 - look at any mafia game with experienced players. Town almost NEVER lets day 1 go by without a lynch unless there's some really insane/crazy circumstances. Usually in games with many different special roles and/or lots and lots of players. This game is neither of those.)
So far I've seen the following reasons for me being mafia:
1. I talk a lot (terrible mafia tell)
2. I want to lynch people (terrible again)
3. I COULD be mafia (been over this)
4. It's bad to let people wait (been over this)
~
Also the reason I'm somewhat defending Hadoblado is that whether I think he's mafia (I think it's unlikely) or not, he's the only one playing the game in a way that gives town any chance of a win.
I'm saying that ruminator might not be mafia. A lot of people have voted to lynch her, and I'm saying that if she is the cop we should try to avoid that.
Maybe we should lynch me instead, if it's gonna help the town.
Can I vote for myself...?
Also people seem to be finding me suspicious because they think my vote for ruminator came out of thin air or "jumping on the bandwagon."
If we are not gonna be making accusations yet, then I don't really know what to post. I've played this game IRL many times before. I haven't read any guides.
Just waiting for night one, so we can get some content to work with.
I also have played the game IRL many times and wasn't sure what to post at the point when you posted this.
I also stated that I didn't know what to do until there was more content. (Or if I didn't post it I definitely thought it. I think I did say it though.)
But I didn't decide to "wait for night one." I find it suspicious that you chose to do this. Wouldn't it be more reasonable to keep an eye on the thread until useful content appeared, instead of choosing to wait until a predetermined time...?
(I'm not wording this well but hopefully y'all will sort of get the just of what I'm saying)
The entire town is digging themselves a grave with their collective placidity. If I fly more under the radar, the town loses by default anyway. That's true of all games, but especially true of this one which has quite a few inexperienced players, as well as quite a few lurker/low-input players.
So if I dig myself a lynch grave, it will at least confirm for the rest of the town that I was actually town and the things I was saying really were for the benefit of the town. I'll honestly think you're all idiots if at this point you lynched me, but at least you'd finally understand that everything I've done and said so far hasn't been some ridiculous mafia ruse (honestly fucking lol).
So at the very least you stand a better chance of winning against the mafia if I die. Also I have way too much pride to make such a huge show like this and risk a potentially really embarrassing lynch if I were mafia and it backfired. I look stupid and everything I've said (I'd obviously be trying to mislead) gets dismissed - making it really hard for my mafia counterparts to win.
Also since I'm fairly sure I'm an early NK target - I see very little real reason for me to hold anything back. If I get lynched, it sucks but it's unlikely I'm missing out on many day phases as it is. Of course it's ideal in my books that I don't get either lynched or NK'd, but at this point in the game two things are happening that I can't allow as a Townie:
1. people literally fucking denying the empirical truth that Lynching on Day 1 is the undisputed best course of action for Town in almost every single circumstance
2. people taking placid stances on the game and barely contributing. Again something that greatly favours the mafia
So whether I get lynched and it's a wake up call to everyone that I was right all along and you need to start actually doing shit if you want to win, or I don't get lynched and get NK'd, or I don't get NK'd and then people get suspicious and then I get lynched and then you again, realise that I was right all along, it's better than the above two eventualities which might prolong the game, but they're certainly going to make Town lose.
Is the Town trying to have a nice long, losing game full of pleasantries? Or are we trying to actually get our hands dirty and win?
I'm saying that ruminator might not be mafia. A lot of people have voted to lynch her, and I'm saying that if she is the cop we should try to avoid that.
Maybe we should lynch me instead, if it's gonna help the town.
Can I vote for myself...?
Also people seem to be finding me suspicious because they think my vote for ruminator came out of thin air or "jumping on the bandwagon."
Here's what rumi said:
And what my response was:
I voted for her a bit later.
But now I'm saying that maybe rumi is a cop, not mafia.
You know I don't really have a problem with this justification, and you've made me more suspicious of both Ruminator and Cheesums as I'd already been thinking.
This no editing crap really makes me look like a spammer, just announcing that I'm going to bed and I'll be back in about 5.5-6 hours to participate in the hours leading up to the end of Day 1.
And I'll note (though towards no goal) that the reason I'm willing to trust RB is that as predicted he has synthesised the system of how the social interactions work to produce town results. As mentioned before, it's unintuitive, and it takes particular talent to catch on quickly. In a way, the 'closed-minded' goal oriented approach is more open, because it is opened in whichever direction a goal beckons from. I don't share this natural ability, and it took me several games to really catch on despite having a coach breathing down my neck. Don't get me wrong, he's still learning, but he's learning quickly.
What purpose does me telling this serve? Well... Initially none, I was rambling. But, now, it serves to illustrate something valuable. There are several people here who I know to be very smart, smarter than myself in all likelihood. But it took a particular orientation to really get it quickly and actualise that understanding. RB is my top student, his record is the very best. But, what're the odds he's not only my best student, but a meta-level above my best student on his first try? Top student being a level that multiple highly intelligent people have failed to reach. Fucking zero. Point zerozerozerozeroone. If RB somehow flips red then lynch me immediately because I'm selling you bullshit. I have no problem aligning my fate with his because I consider him so unlikely to be mafia that if I'm wrong in this he fucking deserves the win. Hats off to you hypothetical super-genius RB, I can almost taste your nutsweat dissolving my self-esteem for all eternity as you spit on this irrevocable evidence of your cerebral superiority in all things, be they things I am expected to have a natural advantage in or not.
If I am confident of anything in mafia, it is that baron is town. And this is a position you people could have shared if you fucking posted like I spent all of how many posts telling you to do? Learn for next game.
And you know why this is important to me? Because now when I'm lynched RB can get you people in order for day two. He is my right hand, and when I'm NKed flipping green, you'll know that this wasn't some dipshit clever ruse, and you follow his lead okay?
I will say, one last thing and the thing that determined me in playing the style that I've played:
Try not to view this game as a mere game, it's more of a moral allegory. I honestly sat and closed my eyes and tried to visualize and imagine what it'd actually feel like to be sitting in a room of 12 people where I know 3 of them are going to literally murder either myself or one of the good people I know each night.
Only in that sort of context did the correct style of play come to my head, because I realised that as soon as you start to consider the things done in this game not as a puzzle to be solved, but as a real life moral dilemma more akin to asking oneself, "can I really just sit here and let innocent people die?"
The reality is that if given a realistic chance in real life, I'd do whatever was in my power to prevent the murder of someone I knew was innocent. Would I care whose toes I stepped on in the process? No, because you can't fight toe-stepper-onnerers if you're not willing to step on toes yourself.
Sounds dramatic I know, and don't get me wrong I'm not literally viewing this game as life or death. Just that I think this game needs to be played as if it were a matter of life or death, because only then does the unintuitive nature of the game become more intuitive and readily apparent. Dispassionate analysis is important - but so is action. You don't have the luxury of time on your side to wait around for confirmation that your analyses are correct, you have to put them to the test, note the results and move onto the next best piece of dispassionate analysis you have available.
Or if you're lucky, the results of the first test tell you exactly what the second test needs to be. Can't win without testing though.
Okay I've been fucking around for a long time now. Sorry if there's any formatting issues, it's 2am and I just need to get to sleep if I'm going to be up for the lynch tomorrow. I'm just going to C&P my word docco and hope I haven't somehow said the exact opposite of what I mean to say.
-I've played irl before, but not on a forum, so this will be a new experience to see how the dynamic gets established.
-I briefly skimmed the link you posted in the other thread but got bored and stopped.
-I think you're trying too hard. I'm still undecided as to whether or not this effort is indicative of someone trying to lead the town through a violent incursion perpetrated by organized criminals, or an attempt by one of these criminals to make us suspicious of everyone but him so that he can lead us like lambs to the slaughter.
-Because doing any more attracts attention and attention is (I would say) dangerous to everyone, mafia and town alike. Also it's very early in the game and nothing much had happened to warrant doing any more than the minimum.
Red: very strong language for someone in a vulnerable and naïve position. See: violent, perpetrate, organised criminals, suspicious, lambs to the slaughter, dangerous. These are peripheral pathway words. Ones that don’t need to be coherent in order to be persuasive. While you indicate you’re not sure about me, it’s as if you’re muttering ‘he is Satan’ under your breath between every word. Without taking a strong position this way or that, you’ve managed to indicate that I’m not to be trusted.
I don’t ordinarily think of this stuff as decisive one way or the other, but you are supposed to be feeling your way around. These are words used to push emphasis, but people who are unclear about how to play and are fumbling around trying to find their feet usually want to deemphasise their impact. Maybe you have more confidence because you’ve played at parties. Maybe you were trying to inject a bit more attitude into your persona because this is the first you get to be pseudo-anonymous while playing. I don’t really know you very well, so can’t be too certain from this. But it stinks.
Originally Posted by Hadoblado
Brutal.
While it's unfortunate they're irrevocably dead, we should try to move on without paying too much attention to it. A shallow grave and all that. The odds are now against us, so if you've got any hard in you, I suggest you try it.
Odd post. I think it's been analyzed enough, though, so I'll leave it at that.
You say it’s odd. Again, you evoke distaste without taking a firm stance. If you have nothing to say about something, why bring it up? In the absence of anything actually being said, one must assume it was to me-too what others have already said. That’s what mafia do. They don’t do their own work, they ride passenger seat. You said it yourself, it’s been analysed. Helvete had a legitimate concern, and I answered in full. You can see my explanation here:
Okay, fair.
My intent was to cut off people talking about the death because I assume many of you are new and easily distracted. What scum are likely to do is talk, but talk about stuff that doesn't matter. The choice for me was between letting them do that and then calling them out for it later, or preventing them from doing it.
I judged that I wouldn't be able to tell if people were deliberately going off-track, because people are inexperienced and having someone modkilled this early is kinda shocking to the uninitiated (thus easy to focus on). So my few words were meant to prevent a conversation about something that I judged wasn't likely to lead to anything useful.
I'll also point out that there's a big difference between posts that are fluff, and posts that are facetious and fluff. Humor is a good way to make your intent ambiguous. It's a game of rhetoric, and humor/glibness can be a useful way to achieve an ends, but when it's without rhyme or reason it creates noise with no upside.
So yes, it was odd. But it was also explained thoroughly. Why did you want to bring up the fact that an already resolved conversation happened if not to flesh out your post count with underhanded aspersions?
You do reply directly to it later:
Your participation thus far comes off as if you're trying to get this over with as quick as possible, which is admirable, but it also comes off as cutthroat, which makes me uneasy. I'm having a hard time telling if your posts are actually designed to work against the mafia as you've explained, or if they're meant to make the townspeople uneasy and uncertain.
Or, you reply to something less verifiable than my post in lieu of replying to my post. A vague sense that I’m in a rush. This makes you ‘uneasy’. Look how you have an opinion! But it doesn’t really make sense does it? I’m in a rush to get his over as quick as possible? The daynight cycle ticks over whether I’m in a rush or not. The game doesn’t come to an end because I’m in a hurry. Now that we’ve had the other conversation about how we are against the clock, what do you feel about my objective focused orientation? Like it’s a good thing to be doing I hope.
The bolded bit is called WIFOM. It stands for “wine in front of me”, a reference to a scene in the princess bride:
You’re not trying to establish who’s mafia, you’re trying to establish that you’re trying to establish who’s mafia. Such a mindset seeks uncertainty within which to hide such as wifom. If other people join in with you, you’re not only camouflaging yourself, you’re wasting town time on a red herring.
Originally Posted by Hadoblado
Vote redbaron
Nothing personal, or even that serious. It occurs to me that you could be very good at this game given your intuitive talent and social skills, but not if you're inactive. I'll unvote you so long as you are in the top 50% of players for meaningful posts. Not a high standard.
If you're town I can't let you be silent, as we're already behind. If you're scum I can't let you slip through without giving me the opportunity to catch you.
Wow, jumping to finger-pointing already. And for fucking bizarre reasoning as well. There are others who have contributed little as well, and some who have not posted at all, what makes RB's reticence so much more vote-worthy?
Okay so again you’re saying finger pointing is bad. But I’m pretty sure we’ve established by this point it’s good. And my “fucking bizarre” reasoning? It checks out too. Do you agree with me now?
And as for which reticence is worse, it’s pretty obvious that some people are going to have a harder time coming in at particular times due to global community yadiya. But RB? He’s in my timezone. He had the opportunity to say things, and used that opportunity to say that he wasn’t going to say things. How is that not worse? Oh and look, RB is now top poster after myself. Jee wiz. Seems like I was right to pressure him. He’s put himself exactly where I wanted him to be, out in the open, giving opportunity for me to read him, and now I feel comfortable taking the plunge and assuming him town. He may have eventually done that anyway, but at the time, my head was demonstrably in the right order.
My thoughts:
Hado is obviously trying to step in to some form of leadership role. It feels like he has some kind of intention behind these actions, but I can't tell if the intention is noble or not.
Hado is obviously being forced into a leadership role because you people are all new and I’ve had to play drill sergeant. If we play again, I have no intention of repeating this roll. I don’t think you appreciate just how fucked town would be if I hadn’t come along and pointed out that doing nothing is bad.
At this juncture, I'm willing to follow Hado for the time being, as he's trying to get results, but I think a healthy dose of caution is in order.
Following is what the mafia do. They don’t want to take the risk of actually airing their thoughts because those thoughts are inevitably full of holes. So they bandwagon whenever they can without taking any personal responsibility. Oh look, you even recommend caution for the person you’re happy following. Now if Hado produces results you’re all good! But if he fails, well, you always knew that guy was up to no good. You’re hedging your bets. Why did it even come up that it was an option to follow me? Because I was being forceful?
So for this day period,
I propose we hold off any more voting until everyone has posted -- let's try to get everyone's voice heard first. THEN, I think we should make an informed group decision influenced by Hado's lead and, if that doesn't work out, we remove Hado on the next day period. (ie. if he's going to be putting heads on the chopping block, he should be prepared for his own head to be next).
Now this is the bit where I started seeing you as red. This is the scummiest thing anyone’s said yet.
I made the soft observation here:
A cheesescumpuffs (yes there will be puns) would love to set up such a scenario. All he need do is make sure scum isn't hanged day one. Then there's a nightkill, then he's got day two in the bag. Then there's another nightkill. Leaving day three as four town vs. three mafia (extremely unfavourable).
Because I didn’t want to discourage people from joining in, and I didn’t think people were ready to understand my points about why it’s scummy. I’ve sat on this since you made it, trying to bring people up to speed enough so that they can appreciate your craft.
Paraphrased:
Let’s not do anything too hasty or useful. Let’s throw away precious hours waiting for lurkers to pipe up. Then we follow Hado who’s just seemingly committed to a mislynch. And in the event that Hado is wrong, we lynch him too.
In retrospect, both me and RB have come up shiny and clean. He was jumping at the opportunity to lynch the two most town players in exchange for two NK’s. Now obviously, a town cheeseumpuffs had no idea that we would be the most established town later down the track, which would be enormously unfortunate if that were the case. But a scum cheeseum, sees the chance to chain mislynches, killing the most experienced town, and then the person selected by that experienced town as the next most able player (at this point I hadn’t let on that it was also because I was more familiar with RB, and had only mentioned his general competence).
So there was bait (though admittedly not deliberately layed). This screamed golden opportunity for a scum, and cheeseums took it.
For emphasis, I’ll repeat:
Leaving day three as four town vs. three mafia (extremely unfavourable).
This is the outcome that would have happened if I had have preceded attacking redbaron while cheeseumpuffs got his way. Four townies vs. three mafia. How many of those townies would be lurkers? If it’s even one clueless and/or inactive that’s a complete loss (and they will be because between two NK’s and me being lynched day two, the three most active town would be removed). This was literally a proposal that would have brought us to lynch-or-lose. Das bad!
So assuming that both me and RB are town (and I know that both of us are going to have an easier time concluding this), cheeseumpuffs preferred course of action would have all but lost us the game in a foggy, behind the scenes kinda way, where I take all the blame day one, and then when I flip town day two it’s too late. That’s the scummiest thing I can imagine~!
So we need to choose between the unlikely circumstance that Cheeseumpuffs, being TMI one of the most knowledgeable about this game behind myself, was so unlucky and incompetent as to accidentally the most scummiest thing in the game, when at no point in his forum history he’s even implied himself being incompetent (to the contrary, while he’s kinda relaxed he strikes me as a wise sort), or he’s scummer.
Ugh, that post really makes me look like a mafia member doesn't it?
What with the whole "saying things but not contributing" thing.
See how he’s more concerned with whether he looks like mafia than anything else? But rather than trying to demonstrate his townliness, he prefers to mention this self-awareness, as if that transparency communicates his townliness. Towners have the option of just being town. They do town things and then they are perceived as town. Mafia need to fabricate an entire alternative universe where they are town, and take their cues from there. That’s a lot harder. Which means there are deterministic factors behind mafias faffing about trying to look self-aware, which is a behaviour that can be read and is therefore a scumtell. A town can just look for scum. Mafia literally do not have this option available to them. They can try to look like they’re searching or confused, but they can’t genuinely be searching or confused. And as much as technically one behaviour can mimic the other, there are very many experienced players who cannot do this. The likelihood of some noob scummer being able to emulate genuine confusion/searching to an inseparable extent is near zero. These sorts of tells are the closest we can come to actually finding scum day one. So fucking ride my dick alright? Bandwagon this fool.
I look like I know what I’m doing
therefore
I know what I’m doing
therefore
If you do what I’m doing
Your actions will mirror those of your alternative universe competent selves who know what they’re doing as demonstrated by their likeness to my very own actions! Right here in the real world!
So kill’im.
Fucking.
I think Sinny's mafia.
Zerk is also on my watchlist.
No reasoning given. What’s that? Real suspicions warrant real reasonings. Yes. Yes they do.
Not only that, but Sinny’s not really said much, meaning that at the point Cheeseumpuffs posted this, she was just as guilty looking from a town perspectives as any of the other lurkers. But not only is she on his watch list, she’s on his actual Ifuckingthinkshesmafia list. How does he elevate her past any of the other candidates when she’s done so little?
What chain of thoughts could lead to this conclusion? Well… I can’t really think of any for Cheesetownpuffs, but cheesescumpuffs? I certainly can. Cheeseumpuffs is a longstanding forum member, who, while not particularly active, is probably aware of the tendency for the forum to beat up on Sinny (whether she deserves it or not). He has reason to suspect that, just as in everyday foruming, Sinny will act in such a way as to attract that sort of attention. She’s an easy bandwagon. We’ve seen it a thousand times: she says something controversial, then we point it out, and an enormous drama ensues. She’s the optimal person for a scum to bait, because she’ll attract all the wrong kinds of attention with her inevitable over-reaction.
I've actually had a similar thought. Although Hado denies it, I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility.
Okay at this point, I’ve got to mention, that while this all sounds personal because I’m responding to attacks against myself, it’s not. If somehow you haven’t picked up on it, I’m pretty damn confident that I look town. I don’t need to defend myself against limpwristed blatherings. But I’m also the primary mover and shaker, which makes me a talking point, which means if faced with people that are reluctant to partake, if they hold opinions, they’ll hold opinions about me (availability bias). And I can’t just ignore scumsign because I’m the target of it. That would be false humility.
Notice how he’s making sure to keep the scope of possibility wide. But the town game is about probability not possibility. Propagating agnosticism is scum game. If all options look equal, town cannot move towards its natural tendency which is to identify and eliminate scum. To the more philosophically inclined such as what I expect from the average INTPf resident, it looks legit. But it’s really fucking not, because we need to be okay with acceptable risks in order to win. So from a scum perspective, Cheeseumpuffs is yet again trying to get in the way of town momentum (which yes, happens to be me). Keep people not confident in anything, and inaction will follow, spelling town demise. This is scum game.
So that's why I think Cheeseumpuffs is scum. Now, for whatever reason hosts like to have it so that lynch time is early in the morning when I have no business being awake. And I've had it happen where my absence preceding the lynch has given mafia and impressionable town time to get things all in a twist (more of a fumble really). So I'm going to get up 4.6 hours from now and try and be more than unconscious. In the meantime, I expect mafia to allow or instigate a wagon that will lead to a mislynch. Well, I'm calling you on it right now you scum motherfuckers cuntslice shiteating sonsofwitchlikemothers. I fully expect you to do just that. Please, make it easy for town to identify who you are by meddling. Do it you motherfucker you little bitch. Take action. Fucking. Dweet. Doeet.
Cheeseumpuffs exempted - of course he needs to defend he-self!
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