article: How a new Jobless Era Will Transform America

[Reverse Transcriptase]

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/201003/jobless-america-future
(I couldn't decide whether to put this in: School & Work, Politics & History or Psychological. If I have to choose I'd say psychological, but I don't have to!)

As an unemployed 23 year old, this article fucking blows to read.

Recession causes permanent diminished chances

But in fact a whole generation of young adults is likely to see its life chances permanently diminished by this recession. Lisa Kahn, an economist at Yale, has studied the impact of recessions on the lifetime earnings of young workers. In one recent study, she followed the career paths of white men who graduated from college between 1979 and 1989. She found that, all else equal, for every one-percentage-point increase in the national unemployment rate, the starting income of new graduates fell by as much as 7 percent; the unluckiest graduates of the decade, who emerged into the teeth of the 1981–82 recession, made roughly 25 percent less in their first year than graduates who stepped into boom times.

But what’s truly remarkable is the persistence of the earnings gap. Five, 10, 15 years after graduation, after untold promotions and career changes spanning booms and busts, the unlucky graduates never closed the gap. Seventeen years after graduation, those who had entered the workforce during inhospitable times were still earning 10 percent less on average than those who had emerged into a more bountiful climate. When you add up all the earnings losses over the years, Kahn says, it’s as if the lucky graduates had been given a gift of about $100,000, adjusted for inflation, immediately upon graduation—or, alternatively, as if the unlucky ones had been saddled with a debt of the same size.

Mental health of job seekers

Strong evidence suggests that people who don’t find solid roots in the job market within a year or two have a particularly hard time righting themselves. In part, that’s because many of them become different—and damaged—people. Krysia Mossakowski, a sociologist at the University of Miami, has found that in young adults, long bouts of unemployment provoke long-lasting changes in behavior and mental health. “Some people say, ‘Oh, well, they’re young, they’re in and out of the workforce, so unemployment shouldn’t matter much psychologically,’” Mossakowski told me. “But that isn’t true.”


Examining national longitudinal data, Mossakowski has found that people who were unemployed for long periods in their teens or early 20s are far more likely to develop a habit of heavy drinking (five or more drinks in one sitting) by the time they approach middle age. They are also more likely to develop depressive symptoms. Prior drinking behavior and psychological history do not explain these problems—they result from unemployment itself. And the problems are not limited to those who never find steady work; they show up quite strongly as well in people who are later working regularly.


Forty years ago, Glen Elder, a sociologist at the University of North Carolina and a pioneer in the field of “life course” studies, found a pronounced diffidence in elderly men (though not women) who had suffered hardship as 20- and 30-somethings during the Depression. Decades later, unlike peers who had been largely spared in the 1930s, these men came across, he told me, as “beaten and withdrawn—lacking ambition, direction, confidence in themselves.” Today in Japan, according to the Japan Productivity Center for Socio-Economic Development, workers who began their careers during the “lost decade” of the 1990s and are now in their 30s make up six out of every 10 cases of depression, stress, and work-related mental disabilities reported by employers.

This generation's mental background

Many of today’s young adults seem temperamentally unprepared for the circumstances in which they now find themselves. Jean Twenge, an associate professor of psychology at San Diego State University, has carefully compared the attitudes of today’s young adults to those of previous generations when they were the same age. Using national survey data, she’s found that to an unprecedented degree, people who graduated from high school in the 2000s dislike the idea of work for work’s sake, and expect jobs and career to be tailored to their interests and lifestyle. Yet they also have much higher material expectations than previous generations, and believe financial success is extremely important. “There’s this idea that, ‘Yeah, I don’t want to work, but I’m still going to get all the stuff I want,’” Twenge told me. “It’s a generation in which every kid has been told, ‘You can be anything you want. You’re special.’”

 

[Wish]

Hooray for not entering the work-force for another 2.5 years!

Also, the mental health situation sounds like kids who expected something out of life b/c they were told they'd get it and when they didn't, their worldview was fucked upwards. In other words, stupid SJ's.

EDIT: To clarify, I don't think only SJ's are susceptible to feeling down or lost as a result of not finding a job where they expected one to be - of course it could affect anyone. The article describes the symptoms as a destruction of a part of the person - they permanently change because they don't find jobs immediately. While I don't doubt the results, I think others would acknowledge that their situation is greatly affected by the economic climate and realize it is not 100% their failure. While "stupid SJ's" may have been a brash generalization, I think dominant/auxillary Si users would more likely feel betrayed if what they put so much stock in (Si) ends up being something other than what they expected.

That could lead to some serious issues

 

[Reverse Transcriptase]

Also, the mental health situation sounds like kids who expected something out of life b/c they were told they'd get it and when they didn't, their worldview was fucked upwards. In other words, stupid SJ's.

 

[Wish]

Spoiler

In all seriousness, however, lift up your weary head! (rebuild! restore! reconsider!)

 

[aracaris]

It is extremely tough, and stressful out there, even if you have a job, though obviously it's worse if you don't. I have a job , and I still barely am keeping my head above water.

The one steady job I've found is the only steady job I've been able to find, even after looking for over a year (I was a substitute teacher before that, and still technically am, and it was hardly what I'd call a stable job). I've pretty much given up on finding any other employers at steady businesses in the foreseeable future, at least as an employee in the traditional sense (now, being "employed" on a freelance basis, that is another animal all together). Instead I'll stay where I'm at while I build my own business.

I've figured since jobs are so scarce I should just start making my own instead. And slowly this has started to pay off for me, though I do realize it may be another few years before things really get going (partially because I'm still fairly new to my chosen trade, and have plenty of competitors, but also because it's typical for new businesses not to start really profiting in the first year or so).

I believe in this climate it is especially important to be ambitious, to constantly be on the look out, to constantly learn and push oneself and grow. Being in this unlucky situation can be very hard, and disheartening, and I know how very depressing, and hard to find confidence in oneself it can be, but it can also be seen as a challenge to be taken on. It will likely mean doing more for less for a while, which sucks, but I think if a person keeps fighting, and learning, and growing, it will be worth it.

So this is my advice for anyone whom EITHER has a steady job but still has a hard time paying the bills, or whom simply can't find a job at all. Figure out something you are good at, and I don't mean necessarily something you are expert at, though if you are that will be a big advantage, and even better yet, figure out multiple things you are good at. Now get a business license, and start trying to find people whom will pay you for your skills on freelance and/or contractual basis.
Now this kind of work may not bring in much at first, but keep it up, and you will learn A LOT, and it looks good on your resume. Starting off doing work for friends and family if you can may be a good way to start, also look through the Craigslist gigs sections, and other online classifieds sections, start learning about advertising, and how to advertise for cheap (that's what I'm trying to figure out right now).

 

[le roi]

the most convincing arguments i've heard contend that we've just entered a secular economic shift of a 30 or 40 year market cycle.

in other words, my two cents is to not to take comparisons to the recessions of the 1970's and 1980's too seriously. that is a baby boomer historical blind spot.

 

[Sapphire Harp]

Also, the mental health situation sounds like kids who expected something out of life b/c they were told they'd get it and when they didn't, their worldview was fucked upwards. In other words, stupid SJ's.

I disagree. You can be completely aware of these things happening to you, understand their effect on all levels - yet, still be victim to the stresses and depression that anyone will get being unable to succeed in the way they hoped.

I think it's fair to say that the wage of -everyone- is less than it could be because of the economy bringing it down. Imagine the extra $1-5 an hour you could potentially be having if you're not feeling it from your own present condition.

* * * * *
​

There's an interesting cross point to the recession/depression we're having. The United States is suffering from the actions of the last few decades, but who's really benefitted during them? I'll simply include the article's title: How Americans Spent Themselves Into Ruin...But Saved The World. (By David Brin.)
​

 

[Cavallier]

I found a job 3 months after graduating pre-recession. Granted it was a part time job but it payed most of my bills. My boyfriend graduated 3 terms after me (post recession) and it took him 1 and 1/2 years to finally find a job. I think he could have found a job before that but since by that time I was working full time I insisted that he hold out for a job at least related to his field. I wasn't willing to let him settle for a job that sucked and wasn't going anywhere.

Honestly, I wouldn't change positions with him if I had a choice. I'd much rather work and hope that he would find a job soon. Every day it was hell for him to look for openings, fill out applications, get turned down, and then see me walk through the door dead tired and hoping he'd found something. It helped a lot that he got an on call job moving furniture a couple times a month. He could then at least get out of the house and make a small amount of money.

Ugh, I'm so relieved he's finally found a full time job in his field a few months back.

Edit: I think a big part of the reason why I was able to keep the two of us afloat during all this was because my nuclear family has always been on the poor side. I think we were below the poverty line more then above during most of my childhood and teen years. My parents were one of those 20 somethings trying find a job during the early 80s and I learned a lot from their frugal ways. Plus being a starving college student makes it easier to live without once you get out in the working world.

 

[Sapphire Harp]

Aye… I think not having any employment must be more stressful and defeating than having a bad, frustrating job - probably something like 3/4 of the time, I'd guess. Although, there's something horrible about a fruitless job, as well.
​

I think a big part of the reason why I was able to keep the two of us afloat during all this was because my nuclear family has always been on the poor side. I think we were below the poverty line more then above during most of my childhood and teen years. My parents were one of those 20 somethings trying find a job during the early 80s and I learned a lot from their frugal ways. Plus being a starving college student makes it easier to live without once you get out in the working world.

I think you've pointed at a very good thing to notice, Cavalierose. When hearing about the lives of other people, I'm sometimes surprised at their difficulty to make ends meet. If you have the tendency to live spartanly, finances are usually quite a bit easier to deal with. It's actually been relatively easy for me to get ahead, even with a relatively low wage for a bachelor's degree.

So much of your difficulty depends on what "vices" you indulge in.

P.S. On the other hand, there's also been quite a few people who have just astounded me with the things they fit in their budget. For instance, a couple at my work mentioned they payed nearly a $1000 a month for their independent health insurance! (The two of them and for their child - most of us don't have benefits there.) It's a stunning figure.
​

 

[EditorOne]

"I've pretty much given up on finding any other employers at steady businesses in the foreseeable future, at least as an employee in the traditional sense (now, being "employed" on a freelance basis, that is another animal all together). Instead I'll stay where I'm at while I build my own business.

I've figured since jobs are so scarce I should just start making my own instead. And slowly this has started to pay off for me, though I do realize it may be another few years before things really get going (partially because I'm still fairly new to my chosen trade, and have plenty of competitors, but also because it's typical for new businesses not to start really profiting in the first year or so). "

Well said, Aracaris, and great advice, firmly rooted. I would add only that young people right now should think long and hard about encumbrances. It is time to postpone starting a family, getting married, doing anything that infringes on one's freedom to make tough decisions, including making sacrifices. It is quite one thing to say " I'll live on Ramen for two years to get my business going" and quite another to say "And so will my wife and two babies." Relationships increase a kind of moral pressure to accept an unsatisfactory position in order to ease the burden on those you care about.

Plenty of time to catch up on all those other things.

 

[Melkor]

Don't live in AMerica, and don't plan to!

As a result, eent bothered!

You ask me you guys had it coming!

 

[EditorOne]

Hmm, we've been led to believe it's a global economy and everyone is affected to some degree.

The nice thing about concentrating wealth in the hands of a few unscrupulous, corpulent, corrupt, festering plutocrats is that you know where it is when it's time to go get it back.

 

[aracaris]

Hmm, we've been led to believe it's a global economy and everyone is affected to some degree.

The nice thing about concentrating wealth in the hands of a few unscrupulous, corpulent, corrupt, festering plutocrats is that you know where it is when it's time to go get it back.

This is largely true, and there are many countries that have been, and continue to be significantly worse off than the USA.
Your earlier advice is sound, I do think people need to be really careful and really think through things like getting married and having children, and in many cases put those things off, all though certainly having a "partner in crime" (ie husband or wife) can be highly beneficial.

Don't live in AMerica, and don't plan to!

As a result, eent bothered!

You ask me you guys had it coming!

I can understand the sentiment that Americans brought it on themselves, there's certainly plenty of blame to go around, but there's also plenty of victims that did very little, or even nothing to bring what's happening on themselves. I really think it's those least to blame whom are suffering the worst.
To say people just had it coming, true to a certain extent, but most people hardly are deserving, and those whom are deserving sadly may not learn the valuable lesson that they should be learning from what's happening, which puts us at risk of having something like this happen over again, possibly more than once, in the future. People can be terribly unwilling to learn and change, even when failing to do so will bring a great amount of suffering to both themselves and others. This tendency is why I fear greatly for our species.
And as the world becomes more globalized, and our environment more fragile you should care what happens in our country, or any other, because more and more it will affect the world as a whole

 

[Sapphire Harp]

I can understand the sentiment that Americans brought it on themselves, there's certainly plenty of blame to go around, but there's also plenty of victims that did very little, or even nothing to bring what's happening on themselves. I really think it's those least to blame whom are suffering the worst.

As far as I understand it, this is true, indeed. The super-rich of the United States are largely shielded from the present economic upset and are carrying on without much trouble at all. ("Oh woe, 20% of my billions has been lost! I shall surely starve!")

Ironically enough, I've heard seemingly plausible allegations that it's the actions of this super-rich, American aristocracy that is driving the recession in this country. The over-heavy top slowly crushing the supporting base simply through its own weight.
​

 

[warryer]

As far as I understand it, this is true, indeed. The super-rich of the United States are largely shielded from the present economic upset and are carrying on without much trouble at all. ("Oh woe, 20% of my billions has been lost! I shall surely starve!")

Ironically enough, I've heard seemingly plausible allegations that it's the actions of this super-rich, American aristocracy that is driving the recession in this country. The over-heavy top slowly crushing the supporting base simply through its own weight.
​

What I want to know is who really needs 54 billion dollars. Hell who really needs more than 5 million, over a comfortable lifetime?

We should all stop accepting US currency and invent our own Monopoly funny money. You know to balance the scales back.

 

[walfin]

We should all stop accepting US currency and invent our own Monopoly funny money. You know to balance the scales back.

You know, local currency systems have saved some villages in developing countries before.

Though I think it'd be illegal in the US.

 

[aracaris]

You know, local currency systems have saved some villages in developing countries before.

Though I think it'd be illegal in the US.

I think it is pretty much illegal in the US, all though there's some places (though Maui Hawaii is the only one that comes to mind) that have their own "dollar" I think the reason they get away with it is that it's probably considered a "coupon", a coupon that lots of people just happen to accept. I think that Maui dollars are more often kept as souvenirs than actually spent anyhow. Just goes to show it could be done, but I suspect that if it was taken too far (no longer some cute thing mainly for tourists to collect) that the federal government would crack down on it.

 

[Geminii]

Don't live in AMerica, and don't plan to!

As a result, eent bothered!

You ask me you guys had it coming!

Only as a whole. The problem is that the Americans who caused it aren't the ones suffering as a result. Wall Street needs a kick in the ass so hard it can taste leather, but Joe and Jane Sixpack are the ones who can't feed their kids.

Those directly responsible might have drops in their stock portfolios and have to consider selling the third summer house, but they're not going to lose their home, car, job opportunities, top-notch food, and plush offices.