Forum Mafia Game #1

[QuickTwist]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:

Up to post 197:

1. Hadoblado - 0
2. Nebulous - 0
3. Happy - 0
4. Zerkalo - 0
5. ruminator - 4, Puffy, Hadoblado, redbaron, Nebulous
6. redbaron -0
7. Puffy - 0
8. Rook - Vanilla Townie
9. Helvete - 0
10. Cheeseumpuffs - 0
11. Sinny91 - 0
12. EyeSeeCold - 1, Helvete
13. Artsu Tharaz - 0

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day ends in ~18hour 0min

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdow...159&msg=Forum+Mafia+Day+1+Ending&font=cursive[/QUOTE]

Vote redbaron

Unvote redbaron

Vote EyeSeeCold

vote Happy

unvote Happy

vote happy

unvote happy

vote Ruminator

Vote Ruminator

Vote ruminator

vote ruminator.

VOTE ESC

 

[redbaron]

I'll jump in here and correct this. Blue roles often mimic red. That is, they're trying to just exist and not as concerned with the legwork of catching people. While they can contribute, if contribution comes with risk of attention, it's common to opt to do less rather than to do more. Since, just like the mafia's nightkill power, they net advantage over time, they want to make sure they stay in as long as possible.
It's not uncommon for lurkers to be blueroles, who wait until day two to be useful.

This all said, we have to trust that if a blue role does get caught in our sights, they'll do enough to warrant not being lynched day one. It's really very easy not to get lynched day one for town, if you're suitably motivated (such as in the case of blue roles). For this reason, it's usually best for town not to concern themselves with who's blue, especially at lower skill levels where it's easy to be led astray. It's the job of scum to hunt power roles, it's town's job to hunt scum.

Good points. I would think that a blue wouldn't take a totally inactive role though. I get the impression ruminator is only offering up as much discussion as she is because she's got a significant number of votes. On top of that I agree with the last part - it's best not to worry if someone's blue or not.

Find scum and hunt them is the only real objective from my (limited) POV.

 

[Ex-User (11125)]

i think im with cheese now. at first a lot of you seemed suspicious to me, but now the majority of you im unable to read at all, im not getting neither town nor mafia vibes...which is bad
helvete is the only one who has voted based on percieved suspicion from a post, everyone else(including me) has done nothing but blindly point fingers up to now
i still think contentless posting and inactivity is the most dangerous though, because if those people get NKilled then there is nothing at all to extrapolate from the NKed person's past posts, which is a disadvantage to us as it wont give us a thread to understand what the mafia's agenda is and why that person got NKed

 

[Hadoblado]

- I don't know if that's true, the quicker the town starts, the better IF the town's voting is correct. If it is wrong, it just puts the town one point behind sooner.

- That's some interesting reverse psychology shit. But anyway I think it's more than just who is posting most. I think what makes me suspicious is who is jumping into pointing fingers right off the bat.

- wait and see approach is a disadvantage ONLY IF voting would produce a correct vote. Voting early is not automatically a good thing, it is conditional upon whether the vote is correct. Think about it, assume the vote is wrong, and you are voting a townie off, then what benefit did you get by voting early?

You're still all turned around. This is expected, because the way it works is not intuitive.

As time passes, mafia wins. This is fact. Every night that passes, they get a free kill. After nine night phases, they get a free victory. Standing by and watching that happen is a 100% guaranteed loss.

This is a valid proof. There is no way that after nine nights, the mafia will not have won.

And yet, the win rate for town is not zero percent. Why?

Because they don't let that happen. That would be misguided. Do we agree on this?

So the only option that town have, the only option that gives town a chance to win, is lynching people. And it's really very successful. Games tend to be about 50/50 iirc, so empirically, lynching people works, even if it is ugly. The game is designed for it to work.

Now, you might say that we should wait until day 2 to really start hunting. Well, you'd be wrong again. If no hunting occurs day 1, there is no information to be used day 2. It's like you're starting day 1 again, but without whoever the mafia deems to be your most valuable player. This is why it's important we lynch someone who has posted day one. And that is why mafia tend to lurk more often than not. Because they know that town can't go making RNG lynches.

It follows then, than the more people posting, the more lurking stands out, and the more we can pay attention to it. We need to make drama and wrap people up into it.

What I really want to see from anyone, is a case. Someone writing paragraphs about why someone else is scum. But that's really difficult, because not many people are posting enough to allow cases to be made against them. The atmosphere of this game is too lurky for a positive town environment to be established.

If anyone posts a legitimate case, I promise I won't be voting them day one, and I'll be trying to convince others not to as well (unless the alternative is a no-lynch).

 

[Hadoblado]

Sinny, I would like to hear from you as much as possible please. You post a lot on the forum, but have been eerily quiet here. This is a game of conspiracy, I'd expect you to jump in both feet first.

 

[redbaron]

What I really want to see from anyone, is a case. Someone writing paragraphs about why someone else is scum. But that's really difficult, because not many people are posting enough to allow cases to be made against them. The atmosphere of this game is too lurky for a positive town environment to be established.

I think I'm about to make the case that ruminator fits this bill.

Her response to amassing a significant number of votes is decidedly calculated. It's not what I'd expect from any townie vested in really preserving their innocent hide.

If she's allowed to get away with such a mild defense, that sets a terrible precedent too. It robs mafia accusations of their power and allows people to semi-lurk and mildly contribute their way to victory. Instead they should see an accusation as a suffocatingly real possibility of their swift demise, if they fail to adequately justify their positions and start demonstrating their town-ness.

I'm prepared to take the risk that this lynching is worth it, even if ruminator turns out to be a townie, or even a cop. A mild wait and see approach is bad for the town and lets scum hide.

On top of this, one of the best ways to detect mafia is surely their long-term voting patterns. The more that we force an environment of lynch-voting, the quicker we can start poking holes in people who are reluctant to vote, or who make throwaway votes, as I've highlighted earlier.

Every townsperson should keep a close track of who votes who for that exact purpose. Calling for people to hold off on votes and sowing an air of indecisive passivity is exactly what the mafia want. No mafia wants to deal with a swift, decisive and exacting township that demands their constant input - because it becomes more and more difficult to hide their intentions.

 

[redbaron]

On top of this, one of the best ways to detect mafia is surely their long-term voting patterns. The more that we force an environment of lynch-voting, the quicker we can start poking holes in people who are reluctant to vote, or who make throwaway votes, as I've highlighted earlier.

I remembered not to edit, but have to add to why I see this as important.

If you're actually a townie, the only person you know to be innocent - is yourself. Therefore hesitation in lynching anyone that isn't you, should be based on the fact that according to detached analysis, they have qualities which you believe to be decidedly town.

That isn't to say you should jump on bandwagons, simply that you should be decisive and act upon your suspicions because it's the only way to beat the mafia.

 

[QuickTwist]

Special Note:

There is an additional rule that I am now going to utilize: No voting for people in spoiler tags. If I can't see it, it doesn't count.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

You still need a majority vote to get someone lynched, so if we don't get it then it serves the same effect.

Personally I intend fully to lynch someone I think is mafia, until I see a target that might better represent mafia. I think this is the only sane way for a townsperson to play, since the only thing you know for sure is that you're innocent and that anyone else could be mafia.



Well I think it's important that mafia don't feel comfortable being accused. Ideally they'd perceive accusations as the very real threat that they are. Taking a backseat or half-commitred role to lynching them gives them wriggle room.

Cheeseumpuffs that can work. It's good to be thinking ahead.

However, since nobody's life is on the line, less occurs than if there was someone fighting for there life. It's not going to be as effective, but it's certainly better than inactivity.

Please, can everyone start voting now. We need participation here.

Okay, gotcha. Won't work.

---------------------------------------------------

I want to think about the perspective of the mafia at this point. I'm just going to try and jot down my thought process and see where it goes.

What do the mafia want?
-Us dead (as quickly as possible preferable)
-To not die themselves
How do they not die?
-avoid suspicion
How do they avoid suspicion?
-act like a good townie
-allow as little information about them to come to light as possible
How do they prevent information?
-limit discussion, or at least limit the amount of substance they offer in their posts
Now, how do they kill us (quickly)?
-NK
-Lynching
-Regardless of how beneficial it may be for the town, it would be in the mafia's interest as well to secure a lynch (of a townsperson) today.

So it seems a mafia member would be pro-lynch but anti-discussion.
Does anyone in the game match that description?

-------------------------------------------

Another thought I've had:
If the mafia wants to make a kill today, they need three things.
1. to be concerted
2. not appear concerted
3. target a townie (Sub-thought, maybe someone can answer this: What other criteria do they want in their day target? Strong player? Weak player? etc.)

Let's look at the vote record.

Hado votes RB
Hado unvotes RB
RB votes ESC
Puffy votes ruminator
Hado votes ruminator
RB unvotes ESC and votes ruminator
Neb votes ruminator
Helvete votes ESC

So now I have to ask if the ruminator swing is a concerted effort or not. Is the "vote to encourage participation" angle really all that's going on? Or is it subtle communication between mafia?

I'd say right now my suspicion of the four who've voted ruminator have been raised, and my suspicions of ESC, Helvete and ruminator are lower.


Assuming the mafia are currently active, and assuming they want to kill someone today, it makes sense they'd want to get a vote through quickly.

At this time, I'm very convinced Nebulous is mafia and at least one of the others who have voted ruminator are, as well. (Fits the idea that a stronger mafia player tries to kill a townie and then Nebulous, being a less experienced, less prolific, relatively weaker player follows suit)

------------------------------

So, seeing as ruminator's post count has picked up, I'd say that they're less worthy of being lynched, yes?

vote Nebulous

I will consider unvoting if ruminator is unvoted.

 

[Puffy]

Ok im just hesitating to vote, i think ruminator has not checked in at all since yesterday so...idk. i think her abstainity from contributing and wanting to see how things go after firat kill can also be interpreted as cop behaviour.
Anyway I'll check back in some hours, if you guys are one or two votes short of a lynch then I'll add mine too

I wondered this same thing before going to sleep last night.

While mafia players are presumably playing to not have much attention directed towards them it also stands to think that many, especially new to the game, might play cop in the same way. They don't want the mafia to identify them. After night one the cop genuinely does have more information to go on as they have a confirmation of one players allegiance, so ruminator's move might make sense this way.

(I don't think there's any fear of me writing this getting ruminator NKed if she is the cop as like others have said, RB/Hado, presuming they're town, makes more sense.)

That said you've only really posted to defend yourself so far and I'd like to hear more from you. At first I thought Hado was genuinely voting for RB so I got worried and came in to defend him, but I can see now that voting to stir people into action is an effective tactic.

Also, I'm on a bus to London for the next few hours with wifi and nothing else to do so feel free to ask me any questions as I feel like I've only been commenting on the game so far.

 

[redbaron]

Okay, gotcha. Won't work.

---------------------------------------------------

Another thought I've had:
If the mafia wants to make a kill today, they need three things.
1. to be concerted
2. not appear concerted
3. target a townie (Sub-thought, maybe someone can answer this: What other criteria do they want in their day target? Strong player? Weak player? etc.)

Let's look at the vote record.

Hado votes RB
Hado unvotes RB
RB votes ESC
Puffy votes ruminator
Hado votes ruminator
RB unvotes ESC and votes ruminator
Neb votes ruminator
Helvete votes ESC

So now I have to ask if the ruminator swing is a concerted effort or not. Is the "vote to encourage participation" angle really all that's going on? Or is it subtle communication between mafia?

I'd say right now my suspicion of the four who've voted ruminator have been raised, and my suspicions of ESC, Helvete and ruminator are lower.


Assuming the mafia are currently active, and assuming they want to kill someone today, it makes sense they'd want to get a vote through quickly.

At this time, I'm very convinced Nebulous is mafia and at least one of the others who have voted ruminator are, as well. (Fits the idea that a stronger mafia player tries to kill a townie and then Nebulous, being a less experienced, less prolific, relatively weaker player follows suit)

------------------------------

So, seeing as ruminator's post count has picked up, I'd say that they're less worthy of being lynched, yes?

vote Nebulous

I will consider unvoting if ruminator is unvoted.

I've thought along these same lines as well and have thought much the same thing - that the ruminator vote train could easily be a mafia thing. I didn't want to say it though because I wanted to see how much steam it could gather before ousting it.

I was hoping we might get a voting pattern to string up as many mafia as possible by analysing vote train patterns, without ousting my strategy. That's not to say you've done the wrong thing, by all rights I had no idea how many others would have caught onto that train. We'll still have to keep an eye on that eventuality but it'll be harder now that the mafia are aware of us being aware.

 

[redbaron]

Also I think worth adding: I think that voting Nebulous as mafia is quite apt: she reads moderately on my list of potential mafia as well. However at this point I'm wary of you making this as a sort of Donkey-vote.

You've now agreed with Hado and myself that decisiveness is key, but then gone and made a completely fresh vote on Nebulous, which would require 6 more votes to get her lynched when Ruminator would only take 3.

This would mean that you're very sure Nebulous is mafia (which is what you've said).

However you could also be mafia trying to misdirect us onto a town target, from a real mafia target.

In either case, we'll know what the answer is by lynching Nebulous ASAP - since if she turns out to be town then you've got some 'splaining to do, as does ruminator. We could effectively oust two mafia in one schwing of the lynch mob if we get Nebulous now.

Unvote Ruminator
Vote Nebulous

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

I've thought along these same lines as well and have thought much the same thing - that the ruminator vote train could easily be a mafia thing. I didn't want to say it though because I wanted to see how much steam it could gather before ousting it.

I was hoping we might get a voting pattern to string up as many mafia as possible by analysing vote train patterns, without ousting my strategy. That's not to say you've done the wrong thing, by all rights I had no idea how many others would have caught onto that train. We'll still have to keep an eye on that eventuality but it'll be harder now that the mafia are aware of us being aware.

True, spelling it out has made the mafia more aware of their appearance as a group, but either way the pattern will still be there since they'll still be wanting to eliminate people. It's possible they could split their voting 2-1 to try and hide cooperation, but there should still be an emerging pattern of three voters working in concerted effort.

Also, for the record, I now pretty much only believe you to be mafia if Puffy and/or Hado are also mafia. There'd be very little reason for you to switch from ESC to ruminator as a mafia member unless one of your fellow mafiaites had voted her first.

 

[Puffy]

Also I think worth adding: I think that voting Nebulous as mafia is quite apt: she reads moderately on my list of potential mafia as well. However at this point I'm wary of you making this as a sort of Donkey-vote.

You've now agreed with Hado and myself that decisiveness is key, but then gone and made a completely fresh vote on Nebulous, which would require 6 more votes to get her lynched when Ruminator would only take 3.

This would mean that you're very sure Nebulous is mafia (which is what you've said).

However you could also be mafia trying to misdirect us onto a town target, from a real mafia target.

In either case, we'll know what the answer is by lynching Nebulous ASAP - since if she turns out to be town then you've got some 'splaining to do, as does ruminator. We could effectively oust two mafia in one schwing of the lynch mob if we get Nebulous now.

Unvote Ruminator
Vote Nebulous

Could I ask, you said you were going to make a case for ruminator and have now switched to nebulous without much of a reason for why 6 others should follow suit other than echoing cheese? Why do you think nebulous is the most suspicious? Nebulous is one of the posters I'd be content contributing a vote on at this point as I said in my prior posts (though I still think artsu is kind of being allowed to slip by here).

Also why would nebulous being confirmed town make ruminator suspicious? I'm not sure I've seen her comment on nebulous before.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

However at this point I'm wary of you making this as a sort of Donkey-vote.

I'm not sure I know what you mean by Donkey-vote.

You've now agreed with Hado and myself that decisiveness is key, but then gone and made a completely fresh vote on Nebulous, which would require 6 more votes to get her lynched when Ruminator would only take 3.

I've agreed that making a lynching today will be helpful. Both because of the process of information flow, and because of the possibility of taking out a mafia.

I perceived the original voting of ruminator to be a tactic designed to make her participate, much like Hado's voting of you. I agreed that motivating her to post was a good thing, but I did not have any more suspicion of her being mafia than I did of anyone else, so I found no reason to value voting for her over others. Now, though, I feel the pattern I've seen casts more suspicion than ruminator's lackluster post history, making a fresh vote for Nebulous more valuable than an easy vote of someone who is not really more or less suspicious than everyone else.

So I have no interest in killing ruminator because it's easy, but I do have interest in at least voting Nebulous because I feel a bit more confident in that vote as a whole.

 

[Ex-User (11125)]

im gonna say this again, helvete's vote is the only one that makes sense so far. everyone else has been starting weird wagons for no particular reason and im struggling to trace back your lines of thought

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

Also why would nebulous being confirmed town make ruminator suspicious? I'm not sure I've seen her comment on nebulous before.

I think his reasoning is that Nebulous being town casts my seemingly out-of-the-blue vote for him (her?) in a bad light, which makes me look suspiciously like a mafia trying to steer the vote away from a possible fellow mafia.

So for RB I don't think it's about ruminator's connection to Nebulous but rather to me.

ie. if I'm wrong and Nebulous is town, then I'm fucked and so is ruminator by (very tenuous) association.

 

[Ex-User (11125)]

just to clarify, i dont think ESC is more suspicious than say redbaron or cheese to me, but i said the vote makes sense because i can clearly see what prompted it and where it's coming from, something the rest of you should make more effort to clarify before choosing a target

(though I still think artsu is kind of being allowed to slip by here)

yeah and that's why i thought the ruminator camp was weird, because all the reasons provided for the ruminator votes can also apply to ESC and artzu

 

[Puffy]

im gonna say this again, helvete's vote is the only one that makes sense so far. everyone else has been starting weird wagons for no particular reason and im struggling to trace back your lines of thought

Like cheese said, we're getting people involved in the game by intimidating them with a chance of lynch. Your spectating is actually more suspicious in comparison. I'm unsure where to cast my final vote at this point, I'm only not unvoting as I see no immediate danger of ruminator being lynched.

I think his reasoning is that Nebulous being town casts my seemingly out-of-the-blue vote for him (her?) in a bad light, which makes me look suspiciously like a mafia trying to steer the vote away from a possible fellow mafia.

So for RB I don't think it's about ruminator's connection to Nebulous but rather to me.

ie. if I'm wrong and Nebulous is town, then I'm fucked and so is ruminator by (very tenuous) association.

I see. Tbh I think we're underestimating the meta-reflective ability of the mafia here, they are reading these posts, and surely its more likely that two mafia will be those who have had no involvement with the other at all so as to minimise the trail between them?

It's why trying to encourage as many people to talk to each other as possible is a very good thing. This place is a network and any two nodes that don't have a link between them just gives us more blind spots.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

the rest of you should make more effort to clarify before choosing a target

i thought the ruminator camp was weird

My clarification:
I also thought the ruminator camp was weird. I looked at the ruminator camp and found a pattern I viewed suspiciously. Viewed through a lens of mafia cooperation, the ruminator camp looked to me like the concerted effort of two (or more) mafia members trying to blame an easy target for an easy kill (especially considering Nebulous' vote which came out of nowhere and was unsupported by actual opinion on Neb's part).

If the ruminator camp (specifically Nebulous and at least one of Hado/Puffy) dissolves, then the pattern will have less merit and I will not have as much reason to vote Nebulous.

I hope this was helpful and easy to follow.

 

[QuickTwist]

1. Hadoblado - 0
2. Nebulous - 2, Cheeseumpuffs, redbaron
3. Happy - 0
4. Zerkalo - 0
5. ruminator - 2, Puffy, Nebulous
6. redbaron -0
7. Puffy - 0
8. Rook - Vanilla Townie
9. Helvete - 0
10. Cheeseumpuffs - 0
11. Sinny91 - 0
12. EyeSeeCold - 1, Helvete
13. Artsu Tharaz - 0

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day ends in ~16hours 31min

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdow...159&msg=Forum+Mafia+Day+1+Ending&font=cursive

Vote redbaron

Unvote redbaron

vote Happy
unvote Happy

vote happy

unvote happy

vote Ruminator

Vote Ruminator

Vote ruminator

VOTE ESC

vote Nebulous

Vote Nebulous

I am going to bed. In the event that there is a lynch before I wake up, consider it twilight time. No votes will be counted during twilight, but you can still discuss things. This includes the person who was voted to be lynched.

 

[redbaron]

Could I ask, you said you were going to make a case for ruminator and have now switched to nebulous without much of a reason for why 6 others should follow suit other than echoing cheese? Why do you think nebulous is the most suspicious? Nebulous is one of the posters I'd be content contributing a vote on at this point as I said in my prior posts (though I still think artsu is kind of being allowed to slip by here).

Also why would nebulous being confirmed town make ruminator suspicious? I'm not sure I've seen her comment on nebulous before.

Nebulous as I mentioned has been a moderate mafia read for me. However I had the impression she's also been implicating herself and that she'd actually be quite easy to lynch if it ever came down to it.

Ruminator on the other hand seemed to be slipping the net, and I'm still more than prepared to vote Ruminator if ever necessary. Given the way the vote train was going, I was thinking along the same lines as cheesums - that one of the people who're voting for Ruminator is a mafia member trying to nudge us into a town-lynch.

The other possibility I had was that Ruminator really was a mafia member and that the reason there were randomly split votes on other inactive people was because part of the mafia were trying to cover for her. That's what I find suspicious about Cheesums and why I deduced that he must be very sure that Nebulous is mafia.

The reasoning is as follows:

1. Cheesums agreed, we should lynch someone in Day 1.
2. After agreeing we should get someone lynched, he then voted for someone with ZERO votes, which would seem silly when there's someone already with four. Why not vote the four to try and really get the lynching done.
3. With that, I'm left with two choices here. With the votes being split off ruminator, it becomes less likely we'll be successful lynching her. It reeks of potential mafia meddling to circumvent our capability to effectively lynch people.

Therefore I surmised a few things:
1. Either cheesums' read on Nebulous being mafia is very strong and he's acting upon that.
2. Ruminator is mafia, and cheesums is also mafia. So therefore he's trying to swing the votes off of her, while simultaneously stressing the importance of us lynching what he sees as an easy target (Nebulous), while preserving the important NK for a target who he thinks would be hard to get lynched.

Which to me, means that we get a strong read and a decent read on ruminator by lynching Nebulous, either for good or ill. If Nebulous turns out to be mafia, we know cheesums isn't, unless he's making an extremely risky gambit by starting a lynch-train on his fellow accomplice, and hoping we don't actually eliminate Nebulous.

Now, seeing as I also read Nebulous as being likely to be mafia, this leaves me to think that my best course of action is to join his lynch-train for 2 reasons.

1. His read of Nebulous as scum aligns with my own. Apart from the inactives, she was one of the people I would have voted for. I just opted to go for the inactives, the reasons for which I've detailed above (related to not wanting a stagnant township).

2. If Cheesums is playing a gambit, I'm calling him on it. If this is an attempt to misdirect, I can't let him get away with it by not voting for Nebulous. It's an easy choice for me to make because in any case, I do read Nebulous as being scum - so I'm not making a vote I would be hesitant to otherwise make. However the fact the cheesums is the one who called this makes it a doubly valuable lynch to support, because if we lynch Nebulous and she turns out to be mafia - we can be relatively sure Cheesums is not.

More to come about how I see this as an important meta-move to call out potential mafia gambits.

 

[Puffy]

My clarification:
I also thought the ruminator camp was weird. I looked at the ruminator camp and found a pattern I viewed suspiciously. Viewed through a lens of mafia cooperation, the ruminator camp looked to me like the concerted effort of two (or more) mafia members trying to blame an easy target for an easy kill (especially considering Nebulous' vote which came out of nowhere and was unsupported by actual opinion on Neb's part).

If the ruminator camp (specifically Nebulous and at least one of Hado/Puffy) dissolves, then the pattern will have less merit and I will not have as much reason to vote Nebulous.

I hope this was helpful and easy to follow.

I'm unsure if a camp is the right way of phrasing it as there's no apparently concerted effort. I made the first vote for ruminator because, of the four most unactive people, she was the one least likely to post again if I didn't (artsu now is). Given that hado did the same thing with RB, it's not really surprising he'd follow suit.

 

[Helvete]

My clarification:
I also thought the ruminator camp was weird. I looked at the ruminator camp and found a pattern I viewed suspiciously. Viewed through a lens of mafia cooperation, the ruminator camp looked to me like the concerted effort of two (or more) mafia members trying to blame an easy target for an easy kill (especially considering Nebulous' vote which came out of nowhere and was unsupported by actual opinion on Neb's part).

If the ruminator camp (specifically Nebulous and at least one of Hado/Puffy) dissolves, then the pattern will have less merit and I will not have as much reason to vote Nebulous.

I hope this was helpful and easy to follow.

I also found Neb's vote strange; either a scummy act or jumping on the bandwagon.


---

My vote for ESC was to highlight something I thought noteworthy. Unfortunately the inactivity of artsu is equally noteworthy and whoever else is slipping my mind right now.

I will consider changing my vote if there's is adequate pressure applied elsewhere.

 

[Hadoblado]

I see. Tbh I think we're underestimating the meta-reflective ability of the mafia here, they are reading these posts, and surely its more likely that two mafia will be those who have had no involvement with the other at all so as to minimise the trail between them?

It's why trying to encourage as many people to talk to each other as possible is a very good thing. This place is a network and any two nodes that don't have a link between them just gives us more blind spots.

Fucking.

This.

For example, redbaron recently went and jumped on Ruminator's wagon. If he had have held firm, I could go to my spread sheet I just made and cross off all scum teams in which Ruminator and Redbaron were buddies (nine out of 165). This would have helped town. Instead, he jumped ship quickly, which is exactly the kind of token interaction you'd expect from mafia. This doesn't necessarily indicate scumliness, but doesn't help to prove either as town.

Specifically for RB, and ruminator, their scum% would go down from an assumed 28% each to 22%, even if the other one didn't get called out as town. So without 'knowing' anything, we'd have ruled out possibilities and improved our chance of a successful lynch.

Of course, this is based on the assumption that mafia wouldn't tunnel each other, but IMO that's a pretty safe assumption so far.

Sinny, I need you to post more. I am specifically looking for more from you. I think your part could be decisive in a town victory. What do you think of current town direction?

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

Just to be clear, simply because Nebulous' suspicion index is highest for me doesn't mean I do not entertain other possibilities. ruminator isn't above suspicion, and the silence of Artsu, ESC, and Sinny does not go unnoticed.

It was impressed upon me that reaching a lynch today would be beneficial.
It stands to reason that the lynch would do more good if it were to take out a mafia than if it took out a town.
I am more convinced that Nebulous is mafia than I am that ruminator is a mafia, this is the reason for my vote.

Although, I do see the point that allowing the silence of the others sets a bad precedent for future rounds.

 

[redbaron]

More to come about how I see this as an important meta-move to call out potential mafia gambits.

Just wanted to get the first part of the post done to make sure my own reasoning was clear. As for the deeper strategic points for this. Calling people on potential bluffs I see as important for the town to do. If we don't do so, it becomes too easy for the mafia to direct us towards a potential target. At this early stage of the game, there's too little information to be pussy-footing around a potential mis-lynching. Maybe we get it wrong, it's bound to happen at some point.

However this point of the game, somewhat counter-intuitively, is actually the best time for a mis-lynching because we have more townspeople than we'll ever have in any other phase of the game. So lynching someone now to call a potential mafia gambit and to start forcing information out of people is a good idea.

 

[Ex-User (11125)]

okay then vote artsu for now
reason:

i still think contentless posting and inactivity is the most dangerous though, because if those people get NKilled then there is nothing at all to extrapolate from the NKed person's past posts, which is a disadvantage to us as it wont give us a thread to understand what the mafia's agenda is and why that person got NKed

i'll be gone for a while but i'll make sure to come back before the day ends

 

[redbaron]

Fucking.

This.

For example, redbaron recently went and jumped on Ruminator's wagon. If he had have held firm, I could go to my spread sheet I just made and cross off all scum teams in which Ruminator and Redbaron were buddies (nine out of 165). This would have helped town. Instead, he jumped ship quickly, which is exactly the kind of token interaction you'd expect from mafia. This doesn't necessarily indicate scumliness, but doesn't help to prove either as town.

Specifically for RB, and ruminator, their scum% would go down from an assumed 28% each to 22%, even if the other one didn't get called out as town. So without 'knowing' anything, we'd have ruled out possibilities and improved our chance of a successful lynch.

Of course, this is based on the assumption that mafia wouldn't tunnel each other, but IMO that's a pretty safe assumption so far.

Sinny, I need you to post more. I am specifically looking for more from you. I think your part could be decisive in a town victory. What do you think of current town direction?

I considered that myself. However I think at this point I'm about as confirmed town as I'm ever going to get. I know you think you're going to die to first NK, but I'm pretty convinced that it's going to be me.

The only other possibility I can think of is that we are both kept alive, in the hopes that by doing so the other townspeople will become even more suspicious of our "over" activity and then kill one of us off for a free town kill.

Also, since I know that I'm a townsperson - it makes it more likely that I'll the one to get NK'd over you. I'm fairly sure you're Town at this point, but I can't ever be certain. Since there's a chance you're mafia while there's no chance that I am, it stands to reason there's a higher chance that I'll get NK'd, by simple virtue of the fact that you could be mafia and mafia can't get NK'd.

I'd stay on the Ruminator train, but I'm just as robust on my read of Nebulous being mafia as I am Ruminator. The difference being that if I stay on Ruminator and she turns out to be mafia - great, what did we learn about others?

If I go on Nebulous, whether she turns out to be Town or Mafia, it's a big net information gain for everyone.

Perhaps though, it makes it harder to read ME, but again I already know I'm town so I'm not factoring in people's ability to read ME into the equation - because I already know that I'm not mafia.

 

[Ex-User (11125)]

also...shouldnt ruminator have 3 votes?

 

[redbaron]

Just to be clear, simply because Nebulous' suspicion index is highest for me doesn't mean I do not entertain other possibilities. ruminator isn't above suspicion, and the silence of Artsu, ESC, and Sinny does not go unnoticed.

Although, I do see the point that allowing the silence of the others sets a bad precedent for future rounds.

Of course, I have various people that I'm suspicious of too.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

also...shouldnt ruminator have 3 votes?

Yeah, QT seems to have forgotten Hado's vote.

 

[redbaron]

This is based on the assumption that mafia wouldn't tunnel each other, but IMO that's a pretty safe assumption so far.

I'd agree that so far it's a safe assumption. I'd like to keep it safe in the following days and nights.

That's why I thought it important to call Cheesums on a potential bluff. It's a rare possibility, but he could basically be tunneling Nebulous as a gambit. To me, the only way to punish this gambit is to lynch Nebulous - because then we thin the numbers of mafia, which punishes this play by cheesums whether he's mafia or not since he loses an accomplice.

 

[Hadoblado]

I considered that myself. However I think at this point I'm about as confirmed town as I'm ever going to get. I know you think you're going to die to first NK, but I'm pretty convinced that it's going to be me.

The only other possibility I can think of is that we are both kept alive, in the hopes that by doing so the other townspeople will become even more suspicious of our "over" activity and then kill one of us off for a free town kill.

Also, since I know that I'm a townsperson - it makes it more likely that I'll the one to get NK'd over you. I'm fairly sure you're Town at this point, but I can't ever be certain. Since there's a chance you're mafia while there's no chance that I am, it stands to reason there's a higher chance that I'll get NK'd, by simple virtue of the fact that you could be mafia and mafia can't get NK'd.

I'd stay on the Ruminator train, but I'm just as robust on my read of Nebulous being mafia as I am Ruminator. The difference being that if I stay on Ruminator and she turns out to be mafia - great, what did we learn about others?

If I go on Nebulous, whether she turns out to be Town or Mafia, it's a big net information gain for everyone.

Perhaps though, it makes it harder to read ME, but again I already know I'm town so I'm not factoring in people's ability to read ME into the equation - because I already know that I'm not mafia.

I'm 95% certain you're town. And that 5%? Well, I'll just be impressed and take the hit to my pride. We need to take some risks if we're gonna claw our way back into this, and trusting you seems like a strong bet. I won't be voting you and I'll do all in my power to protect established town.

Also, since I know that I'm a townsperson - it makes it more likely that I'll the one to get NK'd over you. I'm fairly sure you're Town at this point, but I can't ever be certain. Since there's a chance you're mafia while there's no chance that I am, it stands to reason there's a higher chance that I'll get NK'd, by simple virtue of the fact that you could be mafia and mafia can't get NK'd.

This reasoning is either wrong or impractical though. We're only talking about the possibilities in which we're both town. If I'm scum there's no point trying to convince me that you might be NKed. What's more, exactly the same argument is usable from my perspective, so while technically, for you, your chances of being NKed could be argued to be higher, that's not relevant outside of your private thoughts. /nitpick

Now, tbh, I've lost track of what everyone's saying, so I'm going to go back and do some analysis. I'm going to try and put a case on the table within the next eight hours so that I can sleep, then hopefully wake up before 10am to try and assist the last frantic moments of the lynch. We have 16 hours from the time I write this.

 

[redbaron]

I see. Tbh I think we're underestimating the meta-reflective ability of the mafia here, they are reading these posts, and surely its more likely that two mafia will be those who have had no involvement with the other at all so as to minimise the trail between them?

It's why trying to encourage as many people to talk to each other as possible is a very good thing. This place is a network and any two nodes that don't have a link between them just gives us more blind spots.

Okay sure. I agree with you here, but doesn't that make me throwing-in with Cheesums even more appropriate?

Say we get Nebulous lynched and she turns out to be mafia, you could then be pretty sure that both cheesums AND me aren't mafia right? You'd have narrowed down to the fact that at least one of us was Town, with a possibility that one is mafia - but surely not both since two members of the mafia calling a lynch on another member would be insane at this point of the game.

While it'd be an effective gambit, it's such a huge risk for the mafia to take right now.

Since multiple people have reads on Nebulous as being mafia, it makes sense if you ask me. We get quite a lot of information out of this play, regardless of whether Nebulous turns out to be scum or not.

 

[Puffy]

okay then vote artsu for now
reason:


i'll be gone for a while but i'll make sure to come back before the day ends

I kind of want to do the same thing and am leaning towards it, all that's holding me back is that I think we do have more information on how ruminator and nebulous are playing the game at this point, where artsu is basically a blind choice.

What does everyone else think?

 

[Hadoblado]

Also I messed up my spreadsheet. These numbers don't add up. Fk.

 

[redbaron]

This reasoning is either wrong or impractical though. We're only talking about the possibilities in which we're both town. If I'm scum there's no point trying to convince me that you might be NKed. What's more, exactly the same argument is usable from my perspective, so while technically, for you, your chances of being NKed could be argued to be higher, that's not relevant outside of your private thoughts. /nitpick

Yeah, not having an edit function is hurting MY pride here because that occurred to me after posting :'(

I just wanted to clear up though that up until this point, I haven't really been worried about other people's suspicions of me as being mafia. Which is why I was happy to play the vote switch the way I did - since I'm valuing my own understanding of people's alignments over others by default, as I don't know who is or isn't town. Maybe I could try and be an easier read for other Townspeople, but I'm going all-out here since I think I'll be first NK.

FWIW, I'm reading you as highly likely town. I see it as a similar kind of 95/5 split. If you turn out to be mafia, then damn son, I'm just impressed you pulled it off. I'm also not convinced I'd be able to read you as mafia this early on if you didn't want me to, because you've played this game a damn lot. So if you are mafia playing an elaborate ruse, I don't trust my or anyone's ability to detect it so early on.

I'd think that it'd be by Day 3 or more that I'd start to be able to detect the inconsistencies.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

What does everyone else think?

I think it's a mistake to allow artsu to continue his silence indefinitely. But I have a strong hunch that I'm right about Nebulous, so I don't really have any interest in switching my vote for this day cycle unless something develops which renders my ruminator voting block theory obsolete.

 

[Puffy]

EBWOP Zerkalo: why do you see it as suspicious for a 'camp' to form around ruminator when by your reasoning ruminator was also inactive and consequently dangerous? It just seems odd to me, as we don't have as much information on artsu I feel to make an informed lynch on him, and ruminator at the time had explicitly said she wouldn't post until day 2?

 

[redbaron]

I kind of want to do the same thing and am leaning towards it, all that's holding me back is that I think we do have more information on how ruminator and nebulous are playing the game at this point, where artsu is basically a blind choice.

What does everyone else think?

I'm personally waiting to see if we get a flurry of activity from ESC/Artsu.

I have the same problem as you do: we have more information on the others and none on them. They're essentially blind choices and while I do want to punish inactivity, I also still don't have a good read on them.

I'm probably going to vote for whatever I believe is the most likely lynching at this point, since I think it's important for it to happen ASAP and there seems to be at least 4 viable targets right now.

Nebulous is the one I think gives the most net benefit to the town.
Ruminator second-most.
If Artsu or ESC aren't contributing more by Day 2, I'd be lynching them as fervently as possible - we just can't afford passive townspeople and we still stand a chance of catching a mafioso out.

 

[Puffy]

EBWOP: Also no one has voted for artsu so far making it less likely for a successful lynch to be pulled off.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

But I have a strong hunch

to be clear, I want to emphasize the "hunch" bit. It's far from a certainty in my mind, but it's the strongest suspicion I've had thus far in the game and worth acting on, imo.

 

[redbaron]

EBWOP Zerkalo: why do you see it as suspicious for a 'camp' to form around ruminator when by your reasoning ruminator was also inactive and consequently dangerous? It just seems odd to me, as we don't have as much information on artsu I feel to make an informed lynch on him, and ruminator at the time had explicitly said she wouldn't post until day 2?

Was also curious about this. Zerkalo is making me ShuSHpISHuS.

At the same time I'm wary of spreading votes too thin and I think her persona right now is consistent with her persona generally on the forum, so I don't detect much to be awry...yet.

 

[redbaron]

EBWOP: As for being wary about spreading votes too thin, to me that seems like a scum-oriented tactic too. Colluding together to directly lynch someone makes it easier to track them, but simply appearing to be reluctant is harder to track since it's explainable as a normal human behavioural anomaly rather than an organised effort between multiple people.

 

[Hadoblado]

IMO It's too late now to pressure people in. Ruminator is now part of the discussion. ESC and artzu are not. We got some, but like an overtaxed dog catcher, we're always going to let some through.

I think it's time to shift paradigm into people interacting with each other. Active vs. active if you will. They get to live another day, but their lurking shittery is a very short-term plan for a lurker mafia, as once there is an established process of information exchange, and lynch info to boot, people can afford to turn their attention to lurkers, who will be under ever more pressure the longer they wait. The people that are active now have post histories to sift through, and at least one of them is mafia. I say we ignore the lurkers for now, we push forward, make cases asap, then we'll be in a good position to have a nice clean lynch with a clear flow of cause and effect to read.

 

[Helvete]

There are several guests lurking this thread.

 

[Helvete]

EBWOP:

I mean to point out, echoing hado's point we should work towards lynching an active member and not somebody who openly doesn't want to participate. I also wanted to wait to see if the others would post at all before changing my vote. The inactive members will have a lot of pressure soon enough anyway.
The importance of having someone lynched today is clear enough and RB makes good points for neb.

UN VOTE ESC

VOTE NEBULOUS

 

[Happy]

I'm still alive. Had a busy day with some good news. Need some celebration drinkies, then I'll return.

 

[Hadoblado]

That's not even a bad idea.

Ima go pop some champagne to err... celebrate my day off