Pmj's TWG/Mafia

[QuickTwist]

At all costs?

Not in my book. Catching Scum is priority #1. I know players that never see day 4 because their reads are that good.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

Nice trying to pin people's attention on me all innocently, creating a bias where I'm going to be on people's mind before even writing anything. Redbaron trying to get the ball rolling by throwing stuff out there, or scum hiding in plain sight trying to bias people to vote a random townie?

Oh, I guess we have the no edit rule. I was about to correct my grammar, but didn't. Scary habits

You should leave the ball rolling to those that have them :^)

Opening game posts. Nothing really to be gleaned from these, as far as I'm concerned.

I think my tone was interpreted as aggressive, but I was being playful

But I need to sleep, supertired. Will be back in some hours

Leaves for quite some time without any level of input on the game.

Not necessarily incriminating as I, too, know how it feels to be supertired. However it's worth keeping in mind.

Just woke up, so collected thoughts so far:

Yellow seems town to me so far. Just not seeing behavior that makes me think she's being deceiving. RB seems his usual self as well. Both seems town to me. And I'm not convinced about cheesepuffs. He seems his usual floaty self as well.

Helvete seems overconfident and challenging, like he knows he'll be able to get away with it (being scum). Idk, my gut says scum. The way he writes comes off as sneaky to me.

QT and sinny could be either. QT seems a bit more town to me than not at this point though

Quoted in my other post. Continual deflection from RB to Helv (who I currently read as more town than wolf).

Sinny did reply to the yellow read btw, unless the quote error is confusing me:

http://intpforum.com/showpost.php?p=542836&postcount=117



But QT's reasoning about sinny makes sense to me. The lack of a strong sinny presence (as in "attitude", not number of posts) from the beginning seemed a bit unusual (though not immediately enough to make me strongly suspicious).

At this rate, my vote is going toward sinny as well.

/vote sinny

Helpful, to post Sinny's answer. But he'd already responded to her response about yellow, iirc. It's a level of helpfulness that seems more designed to look helpful rather than actually be helpful.

Also I never followed the "Sinny isn't her usual self" argument. I didn't notice anything off about her overall presence in the game. Feels like following RB's lead to try and crush an easy-ish town target. (also note that Minu and RB were the only two still gunning for Sinny at the end of the day. I think if QT were also a wolf he wouldn't necessarily have abandoned his pack like that)

One other thing. She seems fully in support of QT's reasoning here but in her next post she says the case isn't strong. Seems like some bet-hedging right there.

I agree the case against you isn't strong, sinny. But nothing has convinced me I should suspect RB or QT as scum. Maybe they will turn out to be so later, but right now I'm not seeing it.

What do you think about Helvete?

RB to Helv deflection.

We're backing out of the vote now?

Well, I don't have experience, so I don't know whether a no lynch is better than a lynch here. I'm not 100% confident in my vote, I picked sinny as well because she is one of the few people that seems scum to me. But if we're not voting

/unvote

Appeal to inexperience. This is my second full game. Mr. Smith's first game entirely. And several other people have varying levels of inexperience, but no one else is pointing to it as a preemptive excuse for their behavior.

oh wait, we want a tie

/vote sinny

this got messy fast

throw on no lynch votes if you want to be sure of no lynch

In a vacuum this would be weird, but Minu explained this move in a later post that I actually was satisfied with.

I'd gone for a nolynch if there were stronger opinions for it. But I got the impression nolynch might be worse than risking lynching a townie as we don't get more info.

What was that drilling sinny and then turning last minute, QT? Does that mean sinny is a townie and you were worried about being labeled as scum being responsible for her lynch?



I agree with these btw. I guess RB's flakiness might hide something more, but for now he doesn't come off as scum to me. This might be a stretch, but to me Helvete comes off as being excited about being chosen as wolf, potentially enjoying that role more than being a townie. That's what I gather from my impression of his personality

Why does it seem like Minu is now off the no lynch train, even though her last actions of the day were seemingly all in effort to keep the no lynch? (ie. trying to make a tie while advocating no lynch votes)

Also, turning possible suspicion directed towards the Sinny wagon solely to QT for removing his vote (on a now confirmed town)

And again deflect from rb to Helv.

Meaning by the first post we had 3 minutes, by the second post I had 30 seconds.

Also I see pmj posted while I was writing. Nice. I'm kinda impressed, my suspicions of RB was pretty much non-existant.

Begining of the edit/post trouble. Not incriminating. I think this was supposed to be after her long one down below, as a clarification to it.

SHIT

I thought I was replying but I was writing in my post window (meaning edited)??? I had like 4 tabs open, I thought I was writing reply?? Is that even possible to do without noticing??

My first post is still in my other open tab though, but idk if this disqualifies me

I'm going to second sinny's sentiment here; "but why?"

What was your thought process going through it all?



What scum helvete would or would not do, only time will tell, I guess.

Before night I suspected mainly you as wolf. QT and sinny could be either, but I was thinking QT townie. After the bait and switch, I'm starting to think I should bait and switch my suspicions of QT and sinny as well, however. I could see QT being wolf, trying to draw out people to vote for town sinny so he could blame them after. The sudden change seems off to me. Did his doubts suddenly get the better of him minutes before voting? He doesn't seem to be a panicky person. He should've figured out he didn't want to vote hours before if his doubts were that significant

And I don't know why saying you are capable of playing scum that way sounds scummy in itself. We all base our suspicions on something, less we'd say nothing and the game wouldn't move forward. I never said anything about riding ego either, I just said to me it seems like you would enjoy playing scum and be sneaky. I'm not saying you enjoy being better than others or something other ego related thing



I always said it wasn't a strong case, and that my reasoning for voting was that if we had to vote something, I'd pick one of those on my suspect list at that time. And like I said, if people had advised nolynch, I'd gone with that. But I thought people were thinking lynching, even when risking a townie, would give us more information to work with.

When people started saying voting would be a bad idea at the end, of course I opted out too. I'm one of the least experienced and I wouldn't want to put us at a disadvantage due to having the wrong impression of what the wisest move was. If I was scum, why would I opt out and seem obviously suspicious?



I knew the vote count. To my surprise when vote closing came closer people weren't voting. At that point I had been under the impression the consensus was to vote someone to give us more info.But creeping closer I was unsure whether we should be voting at all. Then QT withdrew his vote minutes before vote closing and that made me unsure as I had gradually realized people weren't voting. So I retreated it as I didn't want my mistake lynching someone if there wasn't even consensus on lynching at all.

But when I posted my post where I removed my vote, pmj had meanwhile written sinny and rb were tied = no lynch. And since nobody had voted "no lynching" (afaik), I voted sinny to stop the lynching by making it tie. I was trying to write my post as quick as possible as it was like 30 seconds left. Yellow wrote no lynch while I was putting my vote back on, but I couldn't know whether one more person would be in time to vote for no lynch to give it two votes. The safer option was to make it a tie. You have 90 seconds between being allowed to post, and we had 3 minutes left, I did what I thought was most likely to give a no lynch in a very stressful, short amount of time.

I edited this one to remove the extra quote bits that she was responding to.

I accept her reasoning for the last minute vote flopping. End of day is hectic.

That said, I don't like her involvement in the Sinny. The bit I've bolded up above does not sit well with me. She didn't "always" say it wasn't a strong case. She started saying that after she'd committed to it, possibly as a way to make it look like she wasn't fully on board with the lynch of a townie when Sinny flipped green. Also if Sinny was one of her suspects, she did a poor job making that clear. Her only references to Sinny are always in tandem with QT, most often saying "the two of them could go either way, but QT is more probably town." First off this seems like more bet-hedging to be able to ride the line between them so she can jump on whichever side kills the other.

I reposted it, I didn't format the quotes back, just copied the post itself. Guess we'll just have to wait and see what pmj says

I think Minu is a wolf.
I think Helv and QT are likely town (helv more so than QT).
Which leaves either cheese or Mr. Smith as the final wolf. I dunno how to read the two of them. Cheese has been preoccupied irl (which I want to believe is true) and Smith, John is very new and has been thrown in headlong so I'm having trouble seeing anything other than newbie floundering.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

What time does today end?

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

What time does today end?

Nevermind, I found the timer link

 

[smithcommajohn]

I think Minu is a wolf.
I think Helv and QT are likely town (helv more so than QT).
Which leaves either cheese or Mr. Smith as the final wolf. I dunno how to read the two of them. Cheese has been preoccupied irl (which I want to believe is true) and Smith, John is very new and has been thrown in headlong so I'm having trouble seeing anything other than newbie floundering.

*flounders around the room like a fish out of water*

Yeah, I'm bit of a mess as I sort this thing out. I've gone over all the posts twice now.

QT is so clearly wolf to me, your read of him as town makes me start to think you may be the final wolf, unless you're just misreading.

 

[QuickTwist]

*flounders around the room like a fish out of water*

Yeah, I'm bit of a mess as I sort this thing out. I've gone over all the posts twice now.

QT is so clearly wolf to me, your read of him as town makes me start to think you may be the final wolf, unless you're just misreading.

Play moar games with me.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

QT is so clearly wolf to me, your read of him as town makes me start to think you may be the final wolf, unless you're just misreading.

If I were a werewolf and QT were a werewolf I'd probably be trying to keep distance. Either by ignoring accusations toward him entirely, or by placing him higher on my suspects than he currently is.

I wouldn't be surprised if I were misreading, though.

Tell me, then, why is he clearly a wolf to you? Maybe I'm missing something obvious.

 

[smithcommajohn]

Play moar games with me.

These kind of replies solidify my position.

 

[smithcommajohn]

If I were a werewolf and QT were a werewolf I'd probably be trying to keep distance. Either by ignoring accusations toward him entirely, or by placing him higher on my suspects than he currently is.

I wouldn't be surprised if I were misreading, though.

Tell me, then, why is he clearly a wolf to you? Maybe I'm missing something obvious.

Fair enough. His method of replying to allegations of being a wolf feel apathetic and condescending, but never once a denial. Maybe this is how he reacts in every game he plays, but it certainly isn't how I would react.

 

[QuickTwist]

These kind of replies solidify my position.

Cuz you have no idea how to play. I don't blame you, I look scummy to lots of people, its just my meta and I have accepted that.

I am prepared to prove I was lynched Day 1 8 times in my first 16 games.

 

[smithcommajohn]

Cuz you have no idea how to play. I don't blame you, I look scummy to lots of people, its just my meta and I have accepted that.

I am prepared to prove I was lynched Day 1 8 times in my first 16 games.

Sounds like you also have no idea how to play.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

Fair enough. His method of replying to allegations of being a wolf feel apathetic and condescending, but never once a denial. Maybe this is how he reacts in every game he plays, but it certainly isn't how I would react.

Denials are kind of useless, imo. It's pretty much implicit that everyone denies being wolf and claims vanilla town, until proven/claimed otherwise, but I do understand where you're coming from.

How would you react if accused?

 

[Sinny91]

Guys, QT is a wolf.. This is so painfully obvious. I would have bumped him off but he was protecting RB's role - also painfully obvious. Why do you think he was baiting me?

Minuend is my next top suspect, but not my current priority.

I don't see why some of you are making this so difficult.

 

[smithcommajohn]

Denials are kind of useless, imo. It's pretty much implicit that everyone denies being wolf and claims vanilla town, until proven/claimed otherwise, but I do understand where you're coming from.

Perhaps denials are useless, but it should be a pretty obvious statement to throw out there. If you're accused of a crime you didn't commit, the natural reaction is to deny it, not skip over the accusal and point out that there is no evidence. The latter is only the action of a practiced criminal (whether guilty or not of this particular crime).

How would you react if accused?

I would deny. Beyond that, I'm not sure.

 

[Sinny91]

Sounds like you also have no idea how to play.

Stick to your guns, he's the enemy. Don't listen to him.

 

[QuickTwist]

Sounds like you also have no idea how to play.

I have an idea, but I'm not that good, no. When I have 100 games played I will have a good idea of how to play. I am not even halfway there.

Keep playing. If you are as open minded as I am, you will see later that what you thought was Scummy by me in this game is way more subjective than you think.

All you know is this sites meta and what you have seen in this game. You think the way people are playing in this game is "normal" because you don't know any better.

I am still pretty confident if I die my team (which is Town) will win.

I am pretty much just dicking around in this game.

But I'll show my hand:

Vote: Min

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

Guys, QT is a wolf.. This is so painfully obvious.

What makes it obvious?

I know you're not big on explaining yourself at times like this, but I hope you'll make an exception and spell out for me exactly what I've missed.

The latter is only the action of a practiced criminal (whether guilty or not of this particular crime).

Well you said it yourself. He's practiced at this game. Both sides of it. Whether guilty or not, he's used to dealing with the accusations. I don't think his reactions are super telling one way or another.

 

[smithcommajohn]

Well you said it yourself. He's practiced at this game. Both sides of it. Whether guilty or not, he's used to dealing with the accusations. I don't think his reactions are super telling one way or another.

Fair point.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

Let's put a pin in QT for a moment, Smithjohn. Besides him being clearly wolf, in your opinion. Who else is suspicious? Who is most likely town?

 

[smithcommajohn]

Cheese and you, fwiw, feel town. Helvete and Minuend are suspiciously quiet, but no read.

What are your current thoughts?

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

What are your current thoughts?

Haven't changed a ton from my last post where I detailed them.

I agree that I'd like to hear from Helv and Minu (also cheese, since his most recent post was end of day 1, but it's ~10am in australia so I'm hoping he'll be in soonish). You're leaning more town now.

 

[Sinny91]

What makes it obvious?

I know you're not big on explaining yourself at times like this, but I hope you'll make an exception and spell out for me exactly what I've missed.



Well you said it yourself. He's practiced at this game. Both sides of it. Whether guilty or not, he's used to dealing with the accusations. I don't think his reactions are super telling one way or another.

Sure, just re read what I said on page two or three.

Him and Baron were working towards the same agenda, and that is what is obvious.

 

[Minuend]

So my last huge post happened while pmj posted the sinny rb reveal. I've been unsure if it's ok to keep posting in case I'm disq. If that reveal had happened a bit sooner I might've revealed this right away. It has given me time to think tho and I believe it's important to come forth now so we don't run short on time before lynch

I'm seer and QT is wolf. I already alluded to my role in one of my first posts (not seeing) and alluded to seeing QT as wolf in my long post. I was hoping to go another day in secret, but this way is safer to help town win even if I'm killed this night, or even lynched this day. Hiding one more day is more risky even if it would give me a chance to find the last wolf.

Even if I was scum, revealing this now would put scum team at disadvantage as my bluff would easily be caught and town has a vigilante who can kill me tomorrow.


/vote QT

 

[Sinny91]

FYI Smith, Helvete and Chessums I read as strong green, followed by Cheese who;s a lighter shade of green.

Whilst I'd bet my life on QT being scum, I'd happily bet my left arm that Minuend is the last culprit.

I've been up for... 30-40 hours? When I go sleep, I may sleep through the rest of the day...so the rest is up to you guys.

Yellow got bumped off because there's no way in hell she would have bought this scum bullshit. I've made myself the next Night Kill target because I presumed most of you would be blind and dumb. No offense intended, or minimal at least.

QT is so bloody obvious, I'm not going dignify his red reading with any more explanation.

I might very well be dead when I wake up, so thank you to those who actually helped the cause, and don't you think my play's getting a little better?

Night Mofo's.

 

[Sinny91]

Oh final note, the last wolf will obviously be bussing QuickTwist right now. Ahem.

 

[Sinny91]

Real simple, we all lynch QT and then we see who gets bumped off.

Minuend should be the one to be bumped off if true Seer, but if Minuend is lying, I'll be bumped off.

 

[smithcommajohn]

Two scenarios:

1) Lynch QT... if QT is wolf, Minuend will be NK

2) Lynch QT... if QT is townie, Sinny will be NK, leaving us to lynch Minuend

Both leave us with one more wolf...

 

[smithcommajohn]

EBWODP:

3) Lynch QT... if QT is wolf, and Sinny is NK... unknown

 

[Sinny91]

Two scenarios:

1) Lynch QT... if QT is wolf, Minuend will be NK

2) Lynch QT... if QT is townie, Sinny will be NK, leaving us to lynch Minuend

Both leave us with one more wolf...

QT is NOT going to draw Townie... and my powers were one shot only, so if Minuend is telling the truth, the Wolves will obviously kill the active power role, Minuend.

 

[smithcommajohn]

QT is NOT going to draw Townie... and my powers were one shot only, so if Minuend is telling the truth, the Wolves will obviously kill the active power role, Minuend.

Oh, I didn't know that was the case. Then Minuend should be NK either way.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

/vote QT

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

Oh, I didn't know that was the case. Then Minuend should be NK either way.

Unless she's lying and/or the wolves want to make her look like a liar.

 

[Minuend]

I'm on my phone and without my glasses and my eyes are starting to hurt. I'm going to sleep like I was on my way to do.

I will be back in some 9 hours.

And yes like cheesempuff said, I wont be night killed if scum thinks town wont believe my reads anyway or if I'm lying. With me there will be a hint of uncertainty right to the end if I'm alive which can be exploited by scum. Sinny is confirmed town. Since a few of you read me as scum, chances are they kill sinny.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

Sinny is confirmed town. Since a few of you read me as scum, chances are they kill sinny.

I think that would be a poor move.

Unless someone counter claims seer on you, you are confirmed seer. pmj included a power role on the wolves' team, which makes it highly likely he gave town more than just a one-shot vig, and I'd be willing to bet that the role he gave us is seer. So, if it's likely that we have a seer, and you are the only one who claims seer, then it's essentially confirmed that you're seer.

So either you aren't seer. In which case the real seer steps forward and we know that something fishy is up.

Or you are seer, in which case the only people who would counter claim are wolves.

 

[cheese]

Hahahaha, ok so RB was a werewolf. Well that gives us something to work with! Yellow was vanilla townie, that's mostly unsurprising. (I'd like to see her play scum some time soon to see how my gut feels about her then.) Also Sinny is confirmed town which is really useful information. Minu is possibly the seer... ok. And QT is a wolf according to her.

I've been reading but I'm not fully caught up yet (skimmed everything half asleep). One main thing grabbed my attention: While I really enjoy Pmj's detailed action sequences showing us what's happened, the way he roleplays the other characters/players *totally* influences how I see them (and possibly how others see them too). Like Minu seems shady as fuck, but I'm pretty sure it's only because she was horrified that Sinny killed RB ("werewolf guilt!"). I didn't suspect her at all before beyond knowing I'd struggle to read her. And Puffs now seems super suspicious too because he was all nervous and stuttering. Obviously it makes just as much sense to attribute his nervousness/Minu's shock to watching someone kill a man, as it does to guilty nervousness that they might be found out as a werewolf, but the voice at the back of my head whispers it's also possible Pmj accidentally leaked out info only he knows through how his roleplaying. And this is really stuff I shouldn't be considering solid info/direction of any kind.

My point is! Most of us pick up 'tone' from all kinds of stuff and read people mostly on intuition and hunches (unless you're an experienced player). We should be careful about what we're picking up and where from. iirc I saw a lot of suspicion at Minu following that post and that seems weird.

Oh also, I didn't suspect Helvete. My point was actually that we didn't suspect him last game when he was really normal but really directed, and he was scum. Now he's much more exuberant, more relaxed. Figure that means he's not playing to any secret agenda. I took that line out because that kind of reasoning is lame, but it *is* what I was thinking. Might look sus to say that now but wutevs.

I'll be back with more substantial thoughts after breakfast and showers. Mostly coffee.

 

[smithcommajohn]

Minuend could have tipped the scale at QT without announcing role, but she announced anyway with a convenient "I'll be gone forever, so I can't respond to any questions" post.

If QT is wolf, I think we might be able to trust Minuend.

Now, if QT is townie, we're left with Minuend and ? as wolves. If this comes to pass, Puffs makes the top of my list due to his quick adoption and defense of Minuend.

 

[smithcommajohn]

When I say we might be able to trust Minuend, I mean that in the loosest sense. I remain skeptical of her choice to announce role.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

If this comes to pass, Puffs makes the top of my list due to his quick adoption and defense of Minuend.

It's new information that changes quite a bit. I'd be fucking stupid to not adapt to it.

At this exact present moment, Minu is blue. If no one counter claims, she is confirmed blue.


Say, for instance, that we kill QT and he isn't a wolf. Sinny probably dies in the night and we kill Minu. Last wolf takes someone out and we're now at 2v1. Now, if I make it past the final NK, what did I gain from publicly saying "she's probably seer if no one else claims to be"? That is a fact. If no one CCs, then the only reasonable thing to do is assume Minu is telling the truth.

 

[smithcommajohn]

It's new information that changes quite a bit. I'd be fucking stupid to not adapt to it.

At this exact present moment, Minu is blue. If no one counter claims, she is confirmed blue.


Say, for instance, that we kill QT and he isn't a wolf. Sinny probably dies in the night and we kill Minu. Last wolf takes someone out and we're now at 2v1. Now, if I make it past the final NK, what did I gain from publicly saying "she's probably seer if no one else claims to be"? That is a fact. If no one CCs, then the only reasonable thing to do is assume Minu is telling the truth.

I believe if we hit 2v1, the wolves win, if I understand Pmj's idea of wolf strength.

 

[Helvete]

We have an allowance for one mistake as town which we cannot afford to give away to the wolfs advantage.

Minus claim is interesting. What made you check qt and not me, who you suspected during the night?

One scenario which is possible is that there isn't a seer and the claim is gambling on this so no counter claim happens. Doubtful, plus I suppose a different role could also CC (unlikely there's more than 2 PR for town).

So basically we wait for a CC to happen if necessary and search for that last wolf.

If we kill qt and neither minu or sinny is NK then minu is scum and whoever seer is held off the CC to ensure a final read before offering their head to the block. They'd have a confirmed scum plus a confirmed town or scum by d3.

Vote Quicktwolf

 

[cheese]

Ok I actually have no time again. I realise this is dodgy but real life takes precedence. (Went out for breakfast and now I have to practise for a rehearsal before going off to work.)

Overall: No one has counterclaimed yet, so either Min or QT is a wolf. We lynch one or the other. If we get it wrong, we've got 4 against 2, which'll become 3 against 2 at night, making tomorrow Lylo. That gives us 2 chances to catch someone, 3 if we manage to stop the NK. And if we get today's lynch *right*, we've got 5 against 1. Definitely worth trying the lynch. If there's no CC by the end of the day, QT is probably the one we should target.

Counter-possibilities:
There'll be no CC because there's no Seer.
Min is a Wolf and bussing QT (extremely unlikely/basically impossible though, because we're gonna kill one or the other, so either way one wolf dies, and that drastically lowers the chance of them winning. It's also a hugely risky move to bank on there being no Seer. That being said, if QT flips red, Min gets permanent green cred and is basically impossible to lynch. Or if we lynch Min and she flips red, QT gets permanent green cred. Blah... fucking wifom. Anyway, highly risky move for the Wolf team, so I'm writing this possibility off for now.)

Also haven't seen much from smithcommajohn. Puffs' aggression is raising flags to me, but that's how he got in spectator thread too so maybe it's normal.

QT has definitely been kinda passive-aggressive in how he's denying scumminess. Actually way more so than last game when he was actually scum. He seems pretty dodgy but it's throwing me off because he seemed so non-dodgy last game. Min in comparison seems pretty normal to me - didn't see what Puffs saw. The post disappearing was weird though.

I'll be back after work. IF THE TIMER IS RIGHT, I'll definitely have enough time to catch up and place votes.

 

[cheese]

What the fuck, I just made the exact same post as Helvete.

Damn you Helvete!

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

Puffs' aggression is raising flags to me, but that's how he got in spectator thread too so maybe it's normal.

Aggression?

I haven't even been that aggressive.

 

[PmjPmj]

QuickTwist awakens to the faint sound of hooves clip-clopping in the distance. He slid out of bed and made his way to the window...

... "Ah" he said, spying a horse-drawn cart over yonder. "It appears as though my bandwagon has arrived".

Time Remaining: http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/launch?iso=20160808T1622&p0=1364&msg=End+of+Day+2&font=cursive

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

Well it looks like everyone's had a chance to Counter Claim by now so I'm gonna go ahead and assume that the QT lynch is pretty much on autopilot now.

I'm going to bed. I'll set my alarm to about half an hour or so before the end of day so I can check in in case something develops. I'll see you in 7 hours, and I hope you all have a wonderful night/day/whatever time it is for you right now.

 

[Minuend]

Okay, back at my PC better to explain from here.

It was like 0300, so it wasn't a weird time to go to bed and disappear. And I wanted to be rested and back a good few hours before lynch.

If I didn't claim role it would risk me getting lynched without being able to say anything. I did consider going one more day since some of you were on QT's back. It would risk me getting votes, getting close to mislynch and I wouldn't be able to stop it because if same as yesterday, I can't count on people being here close up to vote. If I knew the majority was here 1-2 hours before vote, I might've waited until then. I already had 2 votes, and one wolf left who could tip the wagon in wolf favor (if the wolf hasn't voted already). And they would have a lot of time to convince and argue for me being scum and my last moment reveal might get me lynched anyway because everyone would be set on my guilt. Better QT is lynched so we have a guaranteed wolf kill.

We're 5 - 2 wolves

I was mislynched or NK without coming out: 3 - 2 and there would still be uncertainties about QT

I was myslynched but come out, QT is dead tomorrow

QT is lynched: 4 - 1 and we're at a huge advantage

There's also the last thing that made me decide to tell you QT is wolf; my seer ability has only 50/50 chance of succeeding. I might survive another night, but my next peek could fail. Meaning I'd probably get lynched tomorrow. Because who would believe someone who said they had peeked QT as wolf (after being lynched) and then claiming an imperfect seer role that failed a peek? Going another day was risky as I'm not guaranteed a read. This way, if wolves kill me, we have a guaranteed townie tomorrow (sinny). So if we lynch QT and I'm NK, we're 3 unknown, 1 townie and 1 wolf. And if you're not able to find the wolf on your own then, I'm afraid I will have to exhaust some heated phrases ~

It was more risky trying to convince people I'm town and not being able to make it in time just to have a chance at a failed peek.

Also I never followed the "Sinny isn't her usual self" argument. I didn't notice anything off about her overall presence in the game. Feels like following RB's lead to try and crush an easy-ish town target. (also note that Minu and RB were the only two still gunning for Sinny at the end of the day. I think if QT were also a wolf he wouldn't necessarily have abandoned his pack like that)

One other thing. She seems fully in support of QT's reasoning here but in her next post she says the case isn't strong. Seems like some bet-hedging right there.

And again deflect from rb to Helv.

That said, I don't like her involvement in the Sinny. The bit I've bolded up above does not sit well with me. She didn't "always" say it wasn't a strong case. She started saying that after she'd committed to it, possibly as a way to make it look like she wasn't fully on board with the lynch of a townie when Sinny flipped green. Also if Sinny was one of her suspects, she did a poor job making that clear. Her only references to Sinny are always in tandem with QT, most often saying "the two of them could go either way, but QT is more probably town." First off this seems like more bet-hedging to be able to ride the line between them so she can jump on whichever side kills the other.

This is a lot of BS nitpicking, shady as fuck.

You clearly see I never had a hardon for sinny's lynch the first day, but did it because I thought we wanted a lynch even when risking a townie. There had been a few posts back and forth about nolynch, but nobody stated clearly they wanted a nolynch, so I thought that was off the table. And the obvious thing then is to choose the one I consider more suspicious. I read RB as town like you did, you said he was your strongest town, why are you not allowing for me to have thought him town as well?

"Deflect from rb". You mean the way you're deflecting from QT to me here before I came out?

I don't need to defend myself as you'll see I'm a seer tonight, but this shit needs some focus.

Cheese hasn't posted much, so I have no read there

Minus claim is interesting. What made you check qt and not me, who you suspected during the night?

I wanted to check someone I was unsure about. If QT hadn't flipped his sinny vote, I'd still be leaning to thinking he was town and would've probably tried peeking yellow or cheesempuff who some people were targeting. I wanted to know whether I should argue for or against them if they kept being targeted the next day. QT would also have a higher chance of being targeted due to his flip, so I changed my mind and checked him. I did still think him town, but in hindsight his flip was uncharacteristically panicky last moment. And his posts after was oddly apathetic

I didn't have any uncertainties about your role, so no reason to check you at that point. I was convinced you were scum

At this point I'm worried about cheese because of lack of posts. So that's where my peek is going if I survive

 

[smithcommajohn]

Thank you for posting, Minuend. Please describe your seer modifier. You said it's 50/50 and that it might not work next round. How many times have you used it, on whom, and your success rate?

I want to believe you. Help me do that.

 

[Minuend]

We've only had one night (one chance) and I peeked QT successfully as wolf.

 

[smithcommajohn]

We've only had one night (one chance) and I peeked QT successfully as wolf.

It feels longer than that for some reason, but you're right.

 

[Sinny91]

QuickTwist awakens to the faint sound of hooves clip-clopping in the distance. He slid out of bed and made his way to the window...

... "Ah" he said, spying a horse-drawn cart over yonder. "It appears as though my bandwagon has arrived".

Time Remaining: http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/launch?iso=20160808T1622&p0=1364&msg=End+of+Day+2&font=cursive

I'm not trusting any more online clocks, what time is EOD PMJ?