How probable are automated attack drones?

[Yourmother]

Recently with the crisis going on regarding ISIS and the emergence of UAVs and similar technologies, I've been been wondering how probable automated attack drones are with our current technology. For example, nowadays UAV pilots use cameras imbedded in the drones to mark a certain area where they drop hellfire rounds, but could computers learn to mark certain areas automatically and unload?

I've always wondered if small, camouflaged drones are possible too. I've heard of surveillance drones disguised as birds who feed off electricity from power lines, but I wonder if it's possible for said bird drones to carry, say, a small pistol and fire accurately on cue. If that's possible, would it be possible for someone to control more than one small drone at once, say, issue a general command for several drones at once to mark and fire?

I mean, I've heard of smart rifles (tracking point), but how well would a small bird drone with firing capabilities navigate through urban areas without crashing with a compact size and a battery life of more than 20 minutes?

 

[Cognisant]

For example, nowadays UAV pilots use cameras imbedded in the drones to mark a certain area where they drop hellfire rounds, but could computers learn to mark certain areas automatically and unload?

Drones fire hellfire missiles, marking a target means putting a laser dot on it so the missile's onboard guidance system has something to direct the missile towards, the dot is also flashed on & off at a certain frequency or in a certain pattern to ensure the missile isn't redirected by counter marking systems.

A drone could do that itself easily.

The real challange is making a drone smart enough to choose when to fire on its own, you obviously don't want it shooting civilians, reporters, your allies or your own troops but the enemy is going to do everything they can to disguise themselves as such, hence why drone pilots spend most of their time awaiting firing confirmation and suffer PTSD from killing people they've been staring at for hours who may look identical to all the people they're not supposed to kill.

I've always wondered if small, camouflaged drones are possible too. I've heard of surveillance drones disguised as birds who feed off electricity from power lines, but I wonder if it's possible for said bird drones to carry, say, a small pistol and fire accurately on cue. If that's possible, would it be possible for someone to control more than one small drone

Currently it's a case of camouflaged, armed and effective, pick two.
But they'll get better.

I mean, I've heard of smart rifles (tracking point), but how well would a small bird drone with firing capabilities navigate through urban areas without crashing with a compact size and a battery life of more than 20 minutes?

Not well, guns create considerable recoil so a small drone would have to land and brace itself to fire and that's quite a lot of complexity before we even begin talking about flight and navigation, let alone having the means to recharge itself in the field, by the time we starting talking about it looking like a bird all semblance of reality has gone out the window.

 

[Brontosaurie]

if you also have probe drones, it's easy to probe and everything is probable. ahahahahahahaha

 

[Fukyo]

Uh, I thought they already exist.

 

[Ex-User (9086)]

Attack drones were/are used extensively in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, less so in Syria, Libya, etc. Both the flying and ground based drones exist today.

These drones can move autonomously and usually have a confirmation system before attacking autonomously, this confirmation system is implemented so that a human operator can signal the machine that it's safe to engage and the machine does the rest.

I'm doubtful that there aren't fully autonomous attacks made with these devices already.

 

[nexion]

Merely to answer the OP's question, 100% I think.

 

[Yourmother]

From what I see currently, attack drones seem capable of maneuvering the skies well enough, however, let's say I was to forgo the possibility of a drone being both armed, camouflaged and effective: is it possible for a drone to navigate through urban areas solely just to mark targets for say, turrets to shoot down?

For example, with smart rifles and force fields coming out, a camouflaged drone could scout out an urban area and mark targets, which would then be shot at by stationary turrets. Wonder how possible that would be with current technology, and how effective it would be.

 

[Cæilon]

The RAF have one such drone in testing that once launched cannot be intercepted communication wise.

The AI calculates the risk of the mission and will only abort if it deems that to the best course of action.

 

[Cognisant]

From what I see currently, attack drones seem capable of maneuvering the skies well enough, however, let's say I was to forgo the possibility of a drone being both armed, camouflaged and effective: is it possible for a drone to navigate through urban areas solely just to mark targets for say, turrets to shoot down?

I'm not sure what you mean, effectiveness is a given (an ineffective drone is just useless no matter what you want to use it for) and what turrets are we talking about?

Marking targets is easy, you're just pointing a laser pointer at the target so some other kind of targeting system has a red dot to aim at, which sounds unnecessary until you remember missiles don't understand concepts, they can't tell the difference between a house and a tank.

Air-to-air missiles are different in that you can bounce radar off things or look for heat signatures and be relatively assured that anything in the sky that dosen't have a friendly transponder and bounces back radar or has a heat signature is something you want to shoot down.

For example, with smart rifles and force fields coming out, a camouflaged drone could scout out an urban area and mark targets, which would then be shot at by stationary turrets. Wonder how possible that would be with current technology, and how effective it would be.

I don't understand why you need the drones, marking is essentially for precision bombing, the pilot drops the bomb or fires the missile and people on the ground direct it to the target because the pilot's too busy getting the fuck outta there before the enemy can shoot him down, a military predator drone only marks it's own missiles because the attack is much slower and it guides the missile onto a moving target.

 

[Yellow]

...These drones can move autonomously and usually have a confirmation system before attacking autonomously...

Sweet Italian sausage. As if the mere existence of attack drones wasn't disturbing enough. They only usually have a confirmation system before attacking autonomously?

 

[Cognisant]

A drone that's set to shoot anything that moves will be deployed ahead of an advancing army to force the enemy to fire their radar guided ground-to-air missiles, this gives away the position of the missile launchers which fast strike craft and artillery then destroy.

Obviously you don't do this in populated areas.

 

[Ex-User (9086)]

Sweet Italian sausage. As if the mere existence of attack drones wasn't disturbing enough. They only usually have a confirmation system before attacking autonomously?

When there is an order to remove the threat in a given area then human confirmation is completely inefficient. Say there were tens of talibans hiding behind rocks in the dark, the human operator won't see every individual but would give a single attack order and the drone would proceed to kill everything it was programmed to recognise as a threat.

Oddly enough in that case drone's programming might be an even safer option to protect "innocent" human life, as the operator is bound to make specific mistakes, especially in critical conditions and without scouting.

I used usually mainly because there are claims that there are unsupervised strikes and because the technology is already implemented for it. The official status on most sources is that it's always supervised and "careful".

 

[Yourmother]

I'm not sure what you mean, effectiveness is a given (an ineffective drone is just useless no matter what you want to use it for) and what turrets are we talking about?

Marking targets is easy, you're just pointing a laser pointer at the target so some other kind of targeting system has a red dot to aim at, which sounds unnecessary until you remember missiles don't understand concepts, they can't tell the difference between a house and a tank.

Air-to-air missiles are different in that you can bounce radar off things or look for heat signatures and be relatively assured that anything in the sky that dosen't have a friendly transponder and bounces back radar or has a heat signature is something you want to shoot down.


I don't understand why you need the drones, marking is essentially for precision bombing, the pilot drops the bomb or fires the missile and people on the ground direct it to the target because the pilot's too busy getting the fuck outta there before the enemy can shoot him down, a military predator drone only marks it's own missiles because the attack is much slower and it guides the missile onto a moving target.

What I mean is, is it possible for someone to strap a smart gun at a random location and direct it to shoot at someone with a laser pointer? If for example, someone were infiltrate an area behind enemy lines and needs gun fire at more than one angle, would it be possible to set discrete, yet artillery like armaments with the AI mentioned above?

 

[Bock]

How probable are automated attack drones?

I've heard rumors that it already exists, i also managed to get my hands on some secret footage of the prototypes -

http://www.defense.gov/dodcmsshare/newsphoto/2006-03/060316-N-5438H-014.jpg