Forum Mafia Game #2

[Rook]

Urakro (An attempt at analysis)


An aside

Spoiler

Firstly, I want the opinion of Urakro and others:

Did Urakro remove their avatar once the game was already in full swing, or am I imaging things?

I noticed that, scrolling down a thread at a quickened pace, it is difficult to quickly identify their posts due to no visual que as to their presence.

This may be a simple coincidence, and it certainly is a physical factor instead of a psychological one, but I want other opinions to know whether I am just being paranoid or if it can be indicative of intent to obfuscate the results of a quick scroll.

Questions for Urk

Spoiler

There are no direct suspicions here, but it would help your case in my own mind to expand upon your thought processes regarding the need for a more complicated game {More activity? How do you propose to use this against scum ?}


I would also appreciate some of your recent readings on Gopher and Zerkalo, considering your earlier suspicions.

Supplied in newer post, thanks.

The good:

Spoiler

A few decent analysis done by Urk, with a penchant to be hard on lurkers. So far most posts have stated support for the town's broader interests.

You seem like you wouldn't really just screw everyone over by being mafia, writing that explanation above, and leaving us dry. That would probably really make you feel horrible, to the point where you wouldn't do it. You'll probably stay low on my suspicion list.

This is an interesting comment towards Puffs, which sets the tone for my next spoiler.

PuffBlarGate

Spoiler

Ok, here's something weird...

Cheeseums didn't have to be replaced like that if he was town. I'm guessing he felt really bad about being mafia and not being able to contribute. I tried to convince him to stay, saying that this game is going to go on for a long while. And I forget if I actually said this specifically, but my thoughts right now is that I think he would have left if he was mafia because lurking as mafia is a shitty thing to do.

Also, I really don't like the idea of being trolled by Blaurran the whole game.

From the get go, this assumption is extremely dubious.
Any member, whether town or scum, will leave if they are either very busy irl or emotionally disillusioned (Blar, Recently Zerk)


I have to ask why you would read someone based solely on them leaving after a 'lurking proclamation' had been passed?

Did it occur to you that someone may have actual, physical reasons for leaving the game?

Before leaving, Puff made some solid posts and geniunly tried to contribute, but still you convinced yourself he was scum.

You stated " I really don't like the idea of being trolled by Blaurran the whole game".

Then, after this post, you immediately went after Blar.

@Blaurran

Alright, here's the thing. You and I don't understand each other very well. We both are opposites, and work in different ways.

I had a gut feeling you'd go right after me the moment I seen QT's notification about cheese. Though I think a town Blaurran would have just let all this slide and work with this crazy dynamic later. But instead, you aimed your sights right on me, probably with the gut feeling that I might have distaste for you and I might be a problem.

So if you were mafia, then we'd both be intimidated by each other. But since you want to try and work a case against me, and we both can't be slinging at each other at the same time, then start questioning me first and when satisfied, I'll start questioning you. Or if you want it the other way around, fine, but there's not very much I really could ask of you as you just started.

Now, this is your first direct interaction with Blar. Already you are attacking him based on a 'gut feeling' you had before he even started posting.
He has made no case against you and only focused on you because you mentioned he will be trolling, but already you assume he wants to make a case when he has thus far just entered the game.
As you stated "but there's not very much I really could ask of you as you just started", so why the immediate animosity towards Blar?

I think that here you are projecting your opinion of Puffs being mafia simply for wanting to leave.

Just a technicality, I didn't say "if we both were mafia". I said :

I had a gut feeling, and it was strong. Gut feelings don't come with confident explanations. But in the case that I'd be right, I didn't see any harm in putting my feelings out. I asked my gut feeling why it was saying the things it did, and I imagined the scenario as outlined.

What I am almost confident about was that cheeseums might have been mafia. Him finding a replacement and "feeling like such a dick", could have stemmed from redbaron and some others stating that it was really shitty for mafia just to lay back and lurk. I think cheese had valid reasons for not being able to play, and couldn't bear with lurking and not being active as mafia.


That's exactly what I thought.... you aren't a meek little townie to be befuddled with. Not that others are either, it would all depend on my confidence relative to the other person.

So: You have accused Puffs of mafia because he wanted to leave, then blindly attacked Blar right when he entered the game based on your gut. Attack him later, yes, but immediately based on very shoddy assumptions? That is not a constructive process in my view.

Come on, Blaurran. This is basic.

Had neither game yet happened, (this one or the old), and we wanted to figure out zerk's chance of getting mafia twice in a row, then yes, the odds of that are 3/13 * 3/13.

But last game has already happened. It's done. The odds of her being mafia last game is 100%.

We don't know with this game though. Thus it's only 3/13.

I'm 99.99999999999999999999999999999% sure you already know this. Don't make this a pissing match between who's skillz, talentz and and more smart.

I asked that because you as town should have been "Yeah, sorry, my bad. Wasn't fully thinking". That might have convinced me of your townliness.

But instead you're trolling and being fucking weird.

Here, Blar made a simple mistake. You go full ape on him, confirming your bias(A bias formed before he even posted) that he would be trolling.
A simple mathematical error does not constitute trolling, and your conduct here borders on rank immaturity.

Of course you are almost completely right. The drawing isn't entirely independent or random, but it would require thousands of outcomes to conclude any irregularities.

So yeah wasn't trying to show my superiority but now you get a chance to ridicule me if you will. Yup gambler's fallacy, gets you when you least expect it I guess.


I still uphold the notion that you are suspicious because you've turned full hostile on me for no reason and we only interacted like 2-3 times on this forum with no real issues, unless there's something you wish to talk about now. Since you've accused me of trolling right before I joined I don't really feel like I should participate in this game because you've made me feel especially unwelcome.

I'm sorry QT for taking your offer but I really don't feel like playing so you'll have to find a replacement for Cheese all over again.

Sorry for the drama, life goes on, have fun folks.

Blar summed up the utter shitiness of your behavior nicely here. He entered the game, only to be insulted by a hostile player with baseless pre-formed biases on day 1.

It's not anything personal against you Blaurraun. I tunnelled gopher, zerk, and was starting reluctantly, and I have nothing against them either. I really am just invested in this game. Though it's just a game, and I hope there's no hard feelings.

When I got my role card and it read "Vanilla Town", I was thrilled. I don't think I could have enjoyed this game as much as mafia. I enjoy solving puzzles, and being the detective, and the only puzzle I could really solve as mafia was to figure out who the cop and doctor are.

I am especially enjoying myself. But that doesn't indicate I'm mafia.

The way people were questioned last game was harsh though too.

But that said, I do legitimately believe you're mad/confused/hurt about perceived drama, when I did keep it within the context of the game. I may have started out what seems a bit personal, and calling you a 'fucking troll' was uncalled for. Honestly, I don't have that many hard feelings for you, even before this spat. I just thought you'd make a really clever mafia, and the longer you linger, the harder it would be to pin you down.

If you'd still want to leave, that's fine, but I just want you to know that I'm not being completely serious about the personal claims about you. I didn't realize it would poke you that hard. I'm sorry.

Your tunneling of Blar was far more personal than that of Gopher or Zerk.
You simply asked them questions, calmly stating your suspicions.

Why the change in tone, with an obvious rudeness displayed to Blar but not your other suspects?

Now, this may just be me, but your following statements sound more robotic than your other posts.

"When I got my role card and it read "Vanilla Town", I was thrilled."

"I am especially enjoying myself. But that doesn't indicate I'm mafia"

The Balance

Spoiler

That said, my tactics of questioning other people don't have aims. I don't do any 'meta-plan' strategy, I honestly don't know where my questioning is going to lead to. But I have found out that it does stir a stagnant pot, and I do try to lift up valuable information that results from my questioning. I don't plan ahead, I work with what's been given.

My questioning reluctantly had to be the most stupidest case. But I figured if I rile him up enough, he's gonna produce a lot more content. I dunno, I think it worked, but still I'm not completely satisfied. I kinda did the same with gopher, but I did have some real assumptions that I kept secret. Gopher was able to destroy those assumptions, so until I have more, I let gopher off the hook.


Um, not intentionally. Once with reluctantly, yes. I've figured I got a standing as town here, using that to my advantage and was seeing if he'd take a bait. But still, I honestly don't know what to expect or what to look for. But that's alright, because at least I'll get something.

You're right, I am befuddling people, but as a town trying to get information. I don't know if it's completely WIFOM, but I've picked someone I want to interrogate, and I try to stick with them and confuse the living hell out of them. (Or try to, I don't know if they actually are). Which is still valuable, they wouldn't be too confused if they were mafia.

Basically I just work with what I'm given. And if that's not enough, I go nuts and unpredictable and see what the results are. Just pushing buttons.

This post has given me an interesting view into your mind.
You seem to be truly trying to help the town, albeit as a player who is new to this, as am I.
You may be a very crafty scum and all this sincerity is a deliberate ruse, but I actually doubt that.

Your above words have made me more sympathetic towards your actions, and I believe they are emotional mistakes made while searching for scum instead of deliberate attacks to rile up others.

I must advise you, however, to not immediately go on the offensive unless you have more solid reads. Your mistakes do not have to repeated.

Epilogue

Spoiler

I believe you to probably be a townie, you have a consistent yearning for a constructive environment and so far you have not shown inconsistencies in this goal.

In the end you did apologize to some extent, but this conduct regarding my predecessors was very unbecoming.

I truly hope you will keep your emotional bias reigned in with me.
I assure you that Puffs and Blar were townies, as am I.

Further illogical rants against this role will be taken as an unfair continuation of the initial incorrect assumption, and I will have no choice but to fully side against you for obstructive behavior, even though you appear to be in the green.

 

[Sinny91]

I'm tired, and I've got a short shift in the morning, so I probably won't be pulling a Sinny allnighter tonight. Around for a bit longer, but I'm gunna kick back and listen to the rain. As from now - or the morning or whatever, if I ever disappear unexpectedly, or unaccounted for, it's probably my network. It went don all last night, and on and off before that.. idk, my new network sucks ass, but I can't afford to be switching things around at the minute.

 

[Urakro]

I must advise you, however, to not immediately go on the offensive unless you have more solid reads. Your mistakes do not have to repeated.

I truly hope you will keep your emotional bias reigned in with me.
I assure you that Puffs and Blar were townies, as am I.

Further illogical rants against this role will be taken as an unfair continuation of the initial incorrect assumption, and I will have no choice but to fully side against you for obstructive behavior, even though you appear to be in the green.

There'll be no problem. I'd like to think I'm learning from my mistakes. And I vow I won't take anything too personal in this game.

Firstly, I want the opinion of Urakro and others:

Did Urakro remove their avatar once the game was already in full swing, or am I imaging things?

I removed the avatar sometime after Jenny voiced (nearing the end of the first day) that I seemed a smug panache with a moustache. It was probably a joke, but I noticed others were taking the smoking avatars off as well. I hate choosing avatars. I tried out armchair philosopher guy, but he looked really remorseful. I settled on no avatar for now, as it only skews the perception of my character.

Spoiler

Questions for Urk

There are no direct suspicions here, but it would help your case in my own mind to expand upon your thought processes regarding the need for a more complicated game {More activity? How do you propose to use this against scum ?}

Just a random thought I had pre-game. The bigger idea of it was introducing more structure, though idea lead to idea, and I was thinking of how game-rules could break the game on mafia.

I thought, if the game started by each person introducing a rule, that would fast-track the game and probably give us all something to start with. Noticing that the idea was receiving critique, I decided to let it go because for one, the game would be interesting no matter what, and second, just me mentioning it kinda already fast-tracked the game.

From the get go, this assumption is extremely dubious.
Any member, whether town or scum, will leave if they are either very busy irl or emotionally disillusioned (Blar, Recently Zerk)

I have to ask why you would read someone based solely on them leaving after a 'lurking proclamation' had been passed?

Did it occur to you that someone may have actual, physical reasons for leaving the game?

Before leaving, Puff made some solid posts and geniunly tried to contribute, but still you convinced yourself he was scum.

You stated " I really don't like the idea of being trolled by Blaurran the whole game".

Then, after this post, you immediately went after Blar.



Now, this is your first direct interaction with Blar. Already you are attacking him based on a 'gut feeling' you had before he even started posting.
He has made no case against you and only focused on you because you mentioned he will be trolling, but already you assume he wants to make a case when he has thus far just entered the game.
As you stated "but there's not very much I really could ask of you as you just started", so why the immediate animosity towards Blar?

I find Blar prickly to deal with. A couple times, I tried starting a conversation but I usually leave with quills.

But I did have that gut feeling with cheesums, I had it stuck in my mind that I figured out his role. I didn't know what to do, but still on my uninhibited streak, I figure I'd voice concern that Blaurran would come after me.

Then I seen Blaurran's first post, and there I was his prime suspect, and my gut feeling was more confirmed. My usual questioning tactics were to seem that the evidence was undeniable, I wanted the mafia team to squirm and feel defeated. All I'd need to look for was signs of defeat.

And then blaurran did his next thing, he just walked away from the game. I really didn't know what to make of that. It confirmed my gut assumption even more, yet was it really done right? Was I just falling prey to confirmation bias, again? Was there any other reasons that he had done that? It hurt to think about it, and I noticed I needed to really check myself.

The thing is, the same thing is happening to me with Hado. During the night, I hit another strong gut reaction, and my questioning and other's are really making him seem like we uncovered scum-tells which is only confirming my guts. I did lie to him and say he seemed like a town, but it's more me getting the hell out of here, and seeing if other people can see it too. I don't want to influence anyone, I want to see what ideas they come up with. Maybe someone can convince me that I am just going paranoid.

I think that here you are projecting your opinion of Puffs being mafia simply for wanting (Blaurran?) to leave.

Without that gut reaction and the subsequent confirmations, I'd probably just leave him alone and see what he came up with. If I was mafia being this 'crafty' and that ballsy, knowing fully that Blaurran was innocent, I'd probably be really hesitant before doing what I did. Because I didn't know Blaurran's alignment, I was bracing myself for him to come at me while I roused him. I wanted him to prove me wrong somehow.
[/QUOTE]

 

[Rook]

@Urakro

A good response, I thank you.
One thing that made me at least understand your reasoning during my predecessor's turns, was that you are able to concisely explain your thought process to a large extent.

I felt I had to target you from the get-go, just to grasp what exactly happened regarding Puffs and Blar.
My mind has been put to rest on the matter, and now it will focus on inconsistencies in players that I am still unsure off.

Taking into consideration your interactions with my role in its previous incarnations, it would be mutually beneficial if you question me on aspects of my play.
After reading your contributions, my suspicions have been proven unwarranted, and I hope that I can provide a similar rectification to any doubts that you may hold.

Right now, I would venture that you are probably town, along with Jenny and Reluctantly.

 

[Urakro]

Taking into consideration your interactions with my role in its previous incarnations, it would be mutually beneficial if you question me on aspects of my play.

I've abandoned my suspicions on the cheesums/Blaur/Rook, mainly because I'm really doubting my tactics. I've got to be more logical and civil about this, and your questioning erased/reset any thought I had. I'll be starting back to square one again.

 

[Hadoblado]

G'morning

Just read through the most recent updates.

I'm back to pretty confident about Urakro being green. He falls into what I consider the 'shameless learner' profile. While it's possible he's really really clever scum, I just don't think it likely he could pull this off first game. He's constantly trying things out, with a bent for being clever (even if he's not trying to be). But mafia work from a position of *maintaining* the status quo. If the status quo is not to their liking, only then do they need to try stuff out.

Urakro has consistently tried stuff out throughout the game, and without doing a filter dive, I'm pretty sure there is no consistent state of the game within which he is experimental, which would be an enormous tell.

So I'm confirming Urakro green in my eyes, and it looks like rook and others have done the same. If he's red he's just a lot cleverer than I can reasonably be expected to believe.

It's unfortunate, Urakro, that you've decided you suspect me. It's cool though. It's also in line with my read of you as trying to be clever (as in, you're interested in the more complex elements, and me being mafia would be more complex). So it even kind of confirms you.

If you're serious about making a case on me, gopher linked my filter from a game where I was mafia here. It's three years old, and I'm a little different now than I was then, but I'm sure you can see similarities (I had forgotten how aggressive I used to be tbh, I thought I was dialing it up on INTPf).

 

[Hadoblado]

Re: Zerkalo
Well... this is getting... frustrating.

@Blar, and @Zerk
I understand that things can be heated and it can make people uncomfortable, but this game is a contrived social scenario. Yes it can be shaded by real world bias against individuals, but what better way to overcome such sensitivity or bias than playing it out in a simulation?

JW was understandably suspicious about being manipulated. Personally I find the whole 'shadowing' thing a bit weak, but its the kind of thing people do pick up on and are suspicious about.

Urakro was understandably poking the new guy. The person on which we had the least information. Yeah the gambler's fallacy was a muckup but I actually got a town read off that, because a scum blar wouldn't be so bold as to think we wouldn't pick up on said fallacy.

Zerk can you please not switch out, but at least align your vote with someone you consider very town? That would require little commitment on your part, QT won't have to go and find a 17th player for his 13 player game, and town won't have to go through the confusion of resetting yet another filter.

 

[Hadoblado]

Huzzah, it looks like I have space to breathe again, LOL!
Gopher -- you tellin' me you couldn't whittle that down a bit? Maybe more later. I need to reread.

To follow up with Hado briefly:


ehhhh.... I mean, yeah, of course that makes sense, Hado, taken on its own merits. Some people would be terrified to dance out on that kind of thin little cable.

The thing is, I don't think it's much of a stretch for you to post like this. let me talk about my metric for a second.

I watch you guys on the forum when Inquisitor and other folks have started a big to-do, and you're typically one of the guys in there slugging it out with long posts. It's a facet of personality; you like to build the elaborate cases, you like to prove people wrong, you're not afraid to get in someone's grill, you throw your weight around a bit even as a mod. Some people like to be out there. I think you have to be in motion, and I think reining yourself in to lurk for Day 1 was really painful for you (and if I had to go back and find Quotes I'm sure I could, but I think it's kind of obvious to everyone at this point).

It's all about personality and seeing what is easy for someone versus hard. I know you've got a knack for this game. It doesn't mean you're scum, but it does mean I have to acknowledge you can run circles around me and if you WANTED to, probably sucker me somehow. Anyway, I think it's easier for you to put that 90% out there; it's how you work.

Not everyone is that way in this game, some of us have had to stretch like hell to comply with the expectations for gameplay to prove our salt. Urak, for example, seems to fit the personality profile I had for him off-game, and while he's done a few things that seemed extreme (like when he went straight for Blar's throat coming into game), Blar was also targeting him to help egg on the behavior, and what it felt to me was like Urak was "trying on" that kind of strategy and just didn't expect Blar to flip out and dump the game. The degree of remorse he showed afterwards seem appropriate in that kind of situation, like he was stretching to "try on" that aggressive strategy that wasn't a norm. Same thing with Hel (who I really did not know much about, I had a blank in my mind from forum interaction), the ambiguity was notably bad in early play, but once he actually stepped up, there was a difference between empty posts and being a person who just sits in the conceptual current and feels his way around, so it was finally like I got a sense of him and put him lower on my list for Day 1. wasn't sure until the flip.

Summary: I'm not weighing folks by a GENERAL expectation of what a "hypothetical someone" would do, I am comparing to the individual expectation developing for each player.

So yes, you are doing more than other people right now, but that doesn't mean I automatically cut you slack; your bar happens to be higher in that area because you're a natural for it and even thrive on it. That and the 'confusion' factor is still leaving me wary.


RE: Thoughts on Sinny: She was okay out of the gate, then had a weird period of apathy. It got her a red rock in my basket. It's possible she got on a bender and crashed, or got sick, or had a shit day at work. She looks pretty much back to snuff in the last day or two, so my hackles have dropped a bit ... for the moment.


Re: Blar: Keeping it succinct: Looks like he read the first few pages of the game, then skimmed the rest and tried to toss in a high-level "dip my toes in the water" assess that comes off as partly random because he just hadn't read enough. Then he tossed a grenade at Urk because he wasn't sure how to proceed with the game at that stage, and it blew up in his face, so he bailed. So Town Blar = sloppy play, Scum Blar = sowing confusion, like the Mafia version of the old "Aristocrats" joke. I already described my thoughts about Urak in that scenario.

Rook, when you catch up -- if you were casting a vote against someone today, who are your top two choices and why? I don't feel like Cheeseums or Blar gave us much; it's up to you, dude.



...You know, this time of day is more my pace. I can sit here and think, write up my thoughts, and not worry that I'm already 40-50 posts behind again.

I wasn't claiming I was town because I've contributed, or implying that others needed to do as much as I have.

I was responding to the notion that, just because I've withheld information, it doesn't mean I'm afraid of posting. Because, from my filter, it's pretty obvious that I'm not afraid of posting.

I also wanted to point out how hypocritical it was for PMJ to attack me for withholding content, when I've posting so much, while he has done nothing but tunnel me. I mean, that's pretty much his only action in this game right?

I mean, if I donate 90% of my earning to charity, that's pretty generous, even if I happen to be a millionaire. A homeless person might still covet my remaining $100,000, but they'd be a fool to think I'd give it to them.

I've done enough. Every time I post I tip mafia off to my intentions. The more they understand about my intentions, the easier it is for them to see me coming, or worse, actively manipulate me into mislynching.

 

[Hadoblado]

Correct or incorrect, that's your opinion and I'm still not going to buy anything you say, so do yourself a favour and save your breath. Fact is, nobody wants to jump on the Hado bandwaggon, so maybe I'm the shit and misguided player. Who knows. I wouldn't be surprised.

As for your contribution:

1) I think you overestimate yourself; a lot of what you post isn't really all that insightful

2) congrats on not being as busy in RL as me?

Utter bullshit.

Whatever. I'm sticking by my guns; you smell of shit. I think I'm done with this game for the next 12 hours or so, because I have a mountain of work to get through.

Okay well... If you don't think you can lynch me... then you need to stop trying to lynch me and fucking do something. Am I wrong in thinking that the sum total of your actions up to this point have been:

Day one: Facetious bullshit
Day two: Tunnel someone who you no longer think you can lynch

???

Because if so, you need to suspend your case on me and do something else. Come back to me later, when you've actually got something. Pushing a lynch that can't happen is a non-action. ATM town has no reason to think you town, because you did nothing day one and now you're doing effectively nothing day two. A vote on me may as well not be a vote at all if you can't get me lynched.

At first (okay not at first, but more recently) I thought you townish because your actions are consistent with someone who identifies with the INTJ profile: Confident reads that are maladaptive if the complexity of the environment exceeds their ability to intuit it. But I now also see the possibility of you just using tunneling on me as an excuse not to provide any more ways to read you, and a way to disrupt town. I mean, there's precedent that I'm an easy villain since last game right? Sinny tunneled me all game and she was town right? If I were looking for a low effort way to disrupt town while also concealing my actions, fixating on one high profile member and tunneling the shit out of them for the first few days would be a good way to do it.

 

[Reluctantly]

Still at work, just got caught up. On phone so no quoting, keeping short, but

People rage-quitting feels emotionally manipulative. I understand this might seem more personal than a game at times, but I don't want to play with people that are going to rage-quit, it both makes me feel bad and at the same time I feel manipulated, so honestly I'm not sure I want to do this now either...

 

[Hadoblado]

Could people please develop or quote their cases on Sinny? How many of you are having intuitions about her scumminess? Are any of you able to put a finger on it?

I've got my own two reads, that make her look scum. But I've also got all of day one making her look town to me.

 

[Hadoblado]

Yeah Reluctantly it feels shitty, even if they're genuine. Especially if they're genuine. Soldier through it though.

 

[Hadoblado]

@Rook
Re: The avatar thing
While yes avatars can confuse, it's not a good way for mafia to manipulate things since they're directly accountable for it. Avatars draw attention, they're literally... well... your avatar. I honestly don't think it's worth pursuing because to a mafia, it would represent such a small gain, for such a large cost in attention.

 

[Hadoblado]

Zerkalo's filter

Spoiler

Vote jennywocky
QT has yet to send me a role pm

Wait what
All voting so far has been lol-voting, so what defense are you talking about

Just...lynch this botch already

how does asking "what is your strategy", out in the open like this, help town-game though?
if townies actually cater to your question, mafia would have much more to gain

Hado yes I want a lynch but let it be known i won't do any compromise lynches...eg. A town me would have also refused to get neb lynched on last game

Was just about to tell u to change ur hideous clit Eastwood avatar i really hate that guy

What's 50/50? A null? Then no. Obviously if i have a hunch that someone's scum, i would not consider it compromise. But if u pull stunts like "if we lynch probable town A, it would prove B's alignment" then don't expect me to partake...just putting this out there

Ofcourse I have no problem with pressuring lurkers, so long as it doesn't get to hammer level and someone shows intention of hammering for real. I used last game's day 1 lynch as example because we're talking last 30 minutes of game, the prospects of a baseless neb lynch were as real as it gets

@Helvete, hado:
What are you, MCs? you too should share your thoughts

What are you?*

@QT you said 11/13 Confirmed. I'm 12th...who's 13th? Bronto? I get the feeling he's not up to play and this is artsu all over again

?????

What.
last game you announced that artsu didn't confirm on the thread

Anyway bye for now

Ok i will get this out now because I'll be proofing for a long time
I don't like the way jenny has been acting up till now. I'm actually semi serious about my vote right now

And what's with Helvete? You're playing exactly the way you've played last game. I thought you said you will up your game and be more useful to town so you don't become an easy NK...whatever happened to that? You have yet to make a post with content. So far you've been picking out people eventhough you haven't posted anything meaningful yourself.

Happy and Urakro slipped so bad and so early...i dont even know what to make of them. Urakro is worse though

Yeah I'm keeping my jenny vote.

Poofing*

Hado probably didn't have a case on gopher and just wanted an excuse to tunnel him.
There's nothing to get a read from in gopher's posts on first page, plus hado already said their metas are rusty


*shrugs* this might be a scum festival for all I know but carry on

Where did he voice outrageous or baseless suspicions and justify them with intuition tho? The stuff he said on first 2 pages about jenny Urakro and idk who else were very reasonable suspicions to have and multiple users voiced the same suspicions as well
@gopher that was not defense. I just thought this gopher trial is unnaturally early

The thing is I would expect someone allegedly experienced like gopher to anticipate town suspicions and voice them first to get town trust points rather than wriggle in and around other players' suspicions. Yes this is my intuition speaking

Well...shit...i need to go back and read first two pages. I was writing from memory and my memory might be unreliable...ok im an idiot lol

No I was right
Helvete was first to question happy
I was first to question urakro

Gopher did say jenny was acting weird but he didn't pursue this as strongly as i did

What? Who? Fos happy? Where did you do that? Wasn't hado the first to do that?

Helvete dodged my question

I'll be back later

Urg sorry Helvete i just saw post 218
Nevermind my last post

Cya

Ok just gonna put this here before I go.
I have a very strong gut feeling jenny is scum but she's not here anymore
Urakro tho... flinging town reads like that is weird
Unvote jenny
Vote Urakro

oky explanation:
i was testing waters with my last vote
i think urakro has set himself up in a way that could make him an easily opportunistic vote
basically everything he's done can be interpreted as both mafia and town
so i wanted to see if someone would join me if i conveniently lays the foundations for an opportunistic vote
im just going to be honest now and say i was testing sinny and cheese as i had a hunch atleast one of them would join
but im retracting all of that, and laying this out in the open, before i let it sit out for a decent period of time, because looking back...i thought that up in a rush and i now think i set up useless bait that would not have generated meaningful results atleast not this early in the game so yeah herp derp

what are you expecting on day 1? how can anyone possibly look for-sure town at this stage? actually looking for sure town on day 1 is what a mafia would be going for anyway


ok i will now get back to serious voting...im going to rape helvete's filter...not like i'll find anything there but that's the point

actually never mind i dont have the patience nor time to do post by post analysis of helvete :/ but anyway i'll make my points:
-what i dont like about helvete is that so far he comes across as very null and im inclined to write that off as a scum-leaning read
-says he doesnt like people posting their lists, as mafia could take advantage, but is also responsible(sometimes directly, sometimes indirectly) for the pressure that made most players so far produce their lists
-if you look through helvete's filter it's very difficult to even come up with questions because he has generated no input himself so far. i think it's quite abnormal for town to not openly express distrust towards atleast one player. all he's done so far that comes close to that is exerting very soft pressure on happy in like...the first few posts
-also helvete prefers a lurker mislynch rather than an active mislynch...which i find weird becuase, save for bronto, i think everyone's shown readiness to get involved. i dont think we need to worry about bronto, QT will get him modkilled or replaced if he remains inactive. but other than bronto, everyone expressed readiness to answer other people's questions when theyre free...i guess this is a very weak point but just putting it out there



ok i guess i need to ask you questions then to make you talk
who are your main suspects so far and why?
what did you look to gain from asking happy about my stance on lynching? hado answered this but you didnt
why a lurker mislynch? wouldnt that generate zero input for us for the next game? and anyway what lurker do you have in mind for a lynch?

also i want to apologise to urakro i think i was being an ass to u so far

like i said i realized i set up a stupid/useless test

jenny...stay please
altho, not gonna lie you're still suspicious because calling everyone mildly suspicious is almost the same as not giving input. you and helvete are doing the same thing in different ways. but anyway

im very frustrated as well. and annoyed. [opposite of invested] is what im feeling towards this game. im also having trouble with overthinking things, and i think i already made a mess because of that i guess

wow aint RB's post full of shit? "hey guys i suspect gopher but i wont do anything about it until these 4 talk" and then lists a hopeless inactive case among the 4

did you even read last page?

i just checked. bronto has 45 minutes to modkill

JENNY PLEASE STAY IN THE GAME

QT PLEASE DO SOMETHING ABOUT BRONTO. RULES SAY 3 POSTS PER DAY, IT'S BEEN 24 HOURS SINCE HIS FIRST AND ONLY POST

@gopher yeah

im going out now kthxbye :^)

It's okay cheesy
Hado can u pm blarraun Cognisant (and whoever else you suggestted) yourself? I don't think QT's around

Anyway vote Helvete
I'll wrote a proper Helvete post tomorrow im really tired bye also this game sucks

goodluck with moving and stuff...i know how tiring it can be
I feel like an ass that was the wrong time to announce that the game sucks, it sucked from the beggining because almost everyone's posts read like fillers...i didn't mean because of you im sorry

hey guys before i reply to the mountain heap of questions you left for me and also make my helvete post...jesus...i have a suggestion

you 3(hado rb gopher) are focusing too much on each other, it's making my life and other people's lives difficult. you are all difficult to read and i see you're having trouble reading eachother too. i was planning on not doing any mental gymnastics on you 3 until day 2 starts, i figured i can only start getting a clearer picture of your motives when you inevitably get more strongly involved with others outside your group. but now im thinking, why dont you three hold off your cases against eachother for now and focus more on others in the game? i think that would ultimately also help you get a better read on each other, and would also help others to start getting a better picture of where you 3 stand

when you start questioning others, you will be able to develop more concrete cases against eachother, so you'll be basically doing both. just dont only focus on eachother

@bread baron
you misread me, your post is shit because:

also im trying to tie the stuff that have to do with eachother in one post so moving on to bronto



geez i mean i dont know what is happening here, either im shit at explaining myself or you guys are reading too much into nothing
jenny i was outlining the difference between active lurker, who definitely should be pressured into producing more content, and inactive. basically i was making the same point you're making; bronto is a meaningless vote, easy picking to quote you, and he's active on the forum but has shown obvious lack of interest in the game so this is not even like artsu who would continue to check back to avoid modkill. which is why im saying @people who vote bronto to stop pretending their votes are worth shit.




sorry urakro but i dont have much to say about last game, i practically waltzed through. didnt even have to make an effort to look more amiable or trustworthy because rb and hado pointing fingers at the wrong people and insisting theyre scum made me more trustworthy by default.

i have done some homework before this game started though, i went through like 5 or 6 mafia games, i read only the entirity of the day 1 phase of each game, then skipped to the spoilers to see who ended up being mafia. thats because imo day1 largely dictates how the rest of the game goes. i found that altho there tends to be a really active mafia, most of the time the players who pose as voices of reason and comment a lot on other players without pushing any particular case are the scum. that's why i am highly suspicious of helvete jenny and now reluctantly as he's treading down the puffy path of posting theories about what mafia and cop would do and bla bla but not really doing much else. RB is right on the money, i think our safest bet is to suspect those who dont seem suspicious, the hardcore null type of posters

@hado and urakro read the above paragraph. you asked for me to outline my thoughts


also @helvete and @urakro im definitely playing out of character in this game but that's not something that should be held against me. typical me is hesitant as hell, obviously that's not helpful for a town-game. and im making an effort to stop hesitating and follow my hunch

incoming more walls of text

"incoming more walls of text" means im not done posting

no you're right. i had a wtf have i done moment after voting you, i realised your reckless town reads and and pointing of fingers looks more town than anything anyone else has done so far so it was really stupid of me to test waters using you and i'll probably pay for the mess i made...

HOWEVER that is exactly why reluctantly doesnt make sense.
it's interesting that reluctantly sees nothing wrong with my weird and, quoting jenny, seemingly convoluted urakro vote. but finds my perfectly reasonable helvete vote suspicious THAT IVE ALREADY EXPLAINED BUT FOR SOME REASON HELVETE AND RELUCTANTLY ARE IGNORING MY EXPLANATIONS.




reluctantly, why did you ignore this post by me?:

you can even see in the below three quotes by me how my suspicion of helvete was gradual and slowly developed over the course of the last 2 days.






helvete: reply to this^ in the meantime. the promised post im about to write is basically tying the aove three quotes together and adding little more

sorry for the delay i got interrupted
ok here's why i think helvete is more suspicious than the other "active lurkers" so far:

this is the last day of the first day phase and so far there is absolutely nothing to find in helvete's filter. nothing. all he's done so far is ask persons what they think of persons.
helvete knows content-less game post history equals to mysterious NK or lynch to town. he has interacted with everyone so far(i think?) but put forth no input of his own. his interactions with all the players were similar. this goes against his own declared intention to change play-style in the post-game thread. it's unnatural and definitely worse play than his first game as town. i recall him calling people out in game 1 and actually voting at some points i think. i also remember him making a ballsy but reasonable suggestion that hado and rb's initial attacks on eachother could be just a show. his play in this game so far does not even level to his previous play. and helvete knows it. and it's been pointed out by several people other than me and yet he's still not talking and he dodged that post i made where i asked him questions.


because everyone so far has been a lurker save for maybe gopher? yes inclusing rb and hado. all their railing of eachother has not really meant anything to others because everyone's confused as to how to read them and theyre not making an active effort to push on others outside their group. not only that but he chose select people to talk




again, what lurkers are we talking about here? everyone?



true
and fair enough i retract what i said regarding you about your stance on my urakro vote, i just assumed since so many people found it suspect, that you're suspect for not suspecting...i guess im just a little paranoid/overthinking. i thought if town people start find my actions suspicious then i have not achieved anything in the case i get lynch/nk would mean people will have trouble discerning genuine suspicions of me from mafia opportunistic voicing of suspicion of me after i flip green

my head hurts...any more questions?

ugh sentence structure in last paragraph is terrible

edited:
"and fair enough i retract what i said regarding you about your stance on my urakro vote. i just assumed since so many people found it suspect, that you're suspect for not suspecting...i guess im just a little paranoid/overthinking.
i thought if town people start finding my actions suspicious, then i have not achieved anything, because, in the case i get lynched/nk, people will have trouble discerning genuine suspicions of me from mafia opportunistic voicing of suspicion of me after i flip green"

you know im finding this cop talk on day 1 useless. cop doesnt have reads yet so what's the point of claiming now? literally anyone can claim. and doctor will have trouble discerning who to protect, but mafia will know who the fake claims are if theyre the other claimers.

Ermm. ..where did I say that?
I mean. ...just what is the issue here? I think I have a strong case on Helvete, he's also on your lurker list and you even agreed with me. Are you agreeing with my case even though you think it's an ambiguous read or what? What are we even disagreeing about?




Where's sinny on your list?

I was ninjad by your post. how was i supposed to know what you're currently thinking of sinny

M8 im beginning to get annoyed. I literally got the 3 top posters to get off eachother and focus on the others (namely: the lurkers you listed). And I'm hunting down one of the lurkers as they stand out more than the others. What else did I say? Oh yes that Bronto need not be an issue, basically I'm narrowing down the lynch pool to actual detrimental lurking

I even stated that rb hado and gopher being ambiguous reads for almost everyone so far(as proffessed by the majority of posters), as reason for them to stop grilling eachother and start hunting others. What are you talking about

awkward moment when you dont even know what "tell" you gave or what kind of morphing question is this.
just because YOU read people a certain way, doesnt mean i have to too. talking too much does not tell anything in and of itself, especially in RB's case.
what. active. players. am. i. going. after? i got on rb because according to MY reads, he is only picking 3 lurkers(bronto doesnt count) out of many others. gopher also echoed that thought so apparently i wasnt being weird.

anyway im done with pointless mental gymnastics and im going out now, so feel free to get people to follow your recommendation as much as you want. good luck in next rounds, town. kthxbai

Heh. No wonder I didn't understand your question. I never made that criteria to begin with. Link me to the posts where I made it i would love to see where I said that

Yes I did? What makes you say this?
Case in point: the criteria you claim i made, is non existent because the people I've expressed suspicion towards(jenny and helvete) i have already described as lurkers. And they're not after anyone in particular either. What even. I already stated what my criteria is for day 1, pressure people I read as hardcore null. That's like the only criteria i actually openly stated

Like i said I'm going out now so I'll be cut off internet. If you decide im mafia then whatever. I won't pursue this conversation with you anymore.

Ofcourse not
I was bussing my scum partner lmao

hey im back. reading my lasts posts again is kinda painful. im sorry @ everyone and reluctantly in particular for my childish/unhelpful attitude before...i was annoyed at being repeatedly asked to explain claims/criteria i know i never made.

@reluctantly
now that ive seen the two posts you quoted, i can see how the second one can be misleading due to unavailability of context. i had a specific post by helvete in mind when i wrote that, and it was really dumb of me not to quote it above what i wrote. putting what helvete wrote above what i wrote puts everything back into perspective. i think.




just add the word "lurker" after "active" and "inactive", and it fits in with the context of my posting history so far. i have already gone over why lynching bronto is a useless move(see quote below) and bad to town but i'll elaborate in detail now.


basically, the point i was highlighting against helvete is that bronto is the only inactive lurker. everyone else(ignoring hado, rb and gopher here), regardless of whether or not they've produced much content, has shown up at some point, been pressured, started to voice suspicions, and promised to participate more when theyre free. at that point, i thought bronto's getting modkilled as soon as his first 24 hours are over. didnt know he would get another day as warning...but anyway, my point still stands, that helvete thinking town lynching bronto is a good idea is weird. why? because, say we did what helvete asked for, and a majority agreed on a bronto lynch before he gets modkilled: does this say ANYTHING at all about any of the people who voted bronto? nope. is bronto a consistent detriment to town judgement like artsu was? also no, because he's getting modkilled soon.

mainly i want to highlight two things:
-first, i didnt produce a criteria against lynching inactives, i was just against a bronto lynch in particular. this is a particular case. actually no you can say im against lynching inactive lurkers but bronto is the only such player in the game.
-second, again, my main reason to be against lynching a player who will be modkilled anyway is that it says nothing about the voters. it's a convenient vote and saying it helps town is weak justification imo because reasons above.

anyway i already said in the quote that this is a somewhat weak case against helvete, because helvete said what he said early in the game. he didnt retract his statements about bronto though, and other people also kept bringing up bronto as a candidate for pressuring/lynching which i saw as a weak/meaningless vote. so you can say this point was more general and not against helvete in particular

now about RB:
im not a mind reader, so when RB produces a list like that, and doesn't list you, or sinny, or pmj on it, it's natural for me to find it weird.
first of all, happy is playing exactly the way he played last game. now the weird thing is...RB says he reads pmj as green because he's playing like happy played last game XD why is one excused and the other put on a suspicions list then?
second, why is sinny not there?
third, RB didnt state his reasons for not suspecting you until veryyy recently. in my eyes at that point, you were also not contributing much or pushing for anything.
jenny and cheese were not on the list either. you might say because they were were unavailable, but then again why is bronto there then?
also hado said he reads urakro as town. i dont recall rb saying that himself(im writing from memory so i might be wrong), and i have no reason to think of hado+rb as one unit. so...

i dont have a read on jenny now...i dont have the gut feeling i had before anymore but then again her inactivity may have made a reading on her extremely difficult. anyway, writing my last post has helped me think more clearly...now im shifting my gears towards RB...rb i would like to see you post more content unrelated to gopher or hado, so i can read you better, before day 1 is over. helvete remains my main suspect.

CanIHazMoreHelveteVotes?

Well, game aside...That was a very weird exchange between you two but I don't sense any personal hostility from Urakro towards you. You (blarraun) are a little intimidating, but in a positive way i promise. Maybe Urakro was trying to express that in a jokey way but somehow failed at coming across to you? *shrugs*

Yes that's what I meant by positively intimidating but was too shy to say :P
#comebackblarraun #</3
Also I was really looking forward to a Urakro grill from you(blarraun), he has become a blind spot player for most of us so it would be nice to have him a little more questioned

Helvete feels like the safer bet out of the two. Imo Helvete's questions didn't help much with getting content, i think gopher's questioning was way more helpful.
Atleast happy has been open about who he finds suspicious, and I know the struggle with juggling projects and a time consuming game like this one, so i think his unavailability is not intentional. but he'll most probably check in today before game ends. So, if you want, you can make a post asking him specific questions, because realistically speaking he has a lot to catch up on and may not know where to start with the posting.
Tbh im not getting scummy vibes from happy idk he's playing the same way he played last game(which is not really a good reason not to vote for him). i find Helvete to be a better vote right now, I already explained why.

I'm sleepy and not in the mood to post so maybe I'll have more to add later. Also I have a lot to say about sinny but that will have to wait until tom

Urakro hold off ur arguments against blarraun. It's not fair that he's no longer here to defend himself
I PM'ed rook and threatened to spank him if he says no to playing in blarraun/cheese's spot

Rook accepts

Yeah I did tell QT to send him cheese's role, idk if he did...anyway I wasted the last 3 days on this game so i wasn't going to let it go to shit because of replacements :P

Oh rook was online at the same time I was in the catbox, that's why I thought of asking him to join. Who do you mean by "has he interacted with you?"? QT? Nope he didn't reply or talk to me at all, this was my doing

Hey don't get me wrong, I wanted QT to confirm too before rook starts playing (ive been away for like 6 hours, didn't expect QT not to check in at all during that time). In the meantime, can someone try talking blarraun into coming back? He might not even be reading this thread, so i mean through VMs or PMs

"No offense rook, but the more people change the more town is confused. I'm happy to have you too, just don't want people swapping in/out with such frequency."
do you mean that in the event blarraun doesn't come back, you still don't want a replacement?
Sorry rook for putting you on stand-by like this, it would have been wiser of me to consult others first >. <

Also gopher thanks for bringing the vote count back to my attention, who's the fourth vote on happy? I only recall you, Reluctantly and sinny voting

Okay im going out now but I'll back shortly in a couple of hours. i didn't want to rush this post but the whole point is i want people's opinions on this so the earlier I post, the better


Wtf was this post sinny?^ clearly you went through the trouble of going back and looking for the post and post number, and yet you missed the second line in my TWO LINE post that says I had yet to receive a role pm from QT at the time? This just reads like a forced filler question but ANYWAY


Last game's sinny took the counter intuitive approach to playing and played by first identifying certain people as strong town reads, and then reading the rest of the players according to their stance on her town reads. Like I said, this is the counter intuitive thing to do and is what tipped people off to her townliness. she also stuck to her guns throughout, so this did not clash with her forum persona
This game's sinny did not have the same approach, in fact she's playing very normally I guess...and she's not adamant about any of her reads. Not really a scum tell, but it's not helping her look good either

@hado, RB, pmj and happy: who are you voting for?

I already did, reluctantly asked the same question...I said I might have more to add later but I don't really have anything more to say now

ok im back
i just looked at happy's posts...i think i can now put some thoughts into words
i feel more inclined to lynch helvete because
happy has been playing like a lynchbait, idk if the thing at the beginning(the defense stuff) was him trying too hard but i feel like happy can do better than that if he were mafia. also fooling around with pmj when he knows he hasnt provided much content does not help him. idk...reckless play over all and i still think it's similar to his last game.
helvete on the other hand was playing more the silent contributor. between helvete and happy, helvete made more effort to appear townish. i guess that's what makes me inclined to think he should be lynched and not happy

i feel like noone's really convinced by what ive said so far but whatever :P

also want to point sth i just remembered after reading reluctantly's last post. idk where but i recall urakro claiming he tunneled me. that's bullshit, reluctantly is the only one who did

yay excitement
i dont see much in helvete's post other than saying my main point on him is bronto which is not true, i already said that was the weakest thing i have on him and was more a general point. i just had to elaborate on it so much because people kept demanding explanations

also @reluctantly i still find your cop talk useless. have you considered the possibility that bronto or cheese might be cop?

honestly playing from town perspective is really annoying me because i feel like im forced to play out of character if i want to get results. much of what i have on helvete is intuitive so ofcourse a part of me is worried ive wasted time on the wrong person. that said, im sticking to my cards and ive already provided reasons for what was setting off my suspicions on him. i might have misunderstood his post on bronto a bit but anyway i already clearly stated that this is the weakest thing i have on him and i just put it out there in general.

nope. reluctantly pushed me to explain the bronto bit so i dedicated one long post to that. but that in no way invalidates me saying it's the weakest thing i have on you



like can i get more clear than that?^

i directed a lot of stuff at helvete, which i admit was difficult to answer, more of it was explaining where my thoughts are coming from, but point is you cant say the bronto bit is the main point i had on you. i had nothing to say in response to your post that i havent already said before so i ignored it

shit i really thought helvete was scum...sorry helvete i must have been annoying to deal with but you werent defending yourself properly and i got a little too obsessed with your post-game1 comment

rb THANK YOU for calling out on sinny

speaking of shitposting i think we all need to talk a little about urakro's behaviour during the last few hours of day 1...is this reckless/bad town play or mafia realizing they read the tides wrongly? reluctntly should also be interested in this since he's talking about people who agreed on happy's lynch


bearing in mind that nothing noteworthy happened between the two posts for this to be a believable change of mind

i asked QT to post something for me because i knew i wouldnt be here when day 2 starts; i wanted everyone to hold off their thoughts on day one's lynch and nightkill until ika and rook talk first bc they're clean slates. QT refused to post it :c but anyway not much has been said so far about happy/helvete and i'd like to keep it that way...if you guys dont mind that is


hado i remember sinny being okay with you for the majority of day 1 until people started pointing out that something is off about her. she also declared urakro as her for-sure town read only after i pointed out that she played last game differently by first identifying cerstain people as strong town reads and then reading everyone else based on how much scum hunting they do on her town reads *shrugs* it just seems off

"anyway not much has been said so far about happy/helvete and i'd like to keep it that way"
ugh nevermind i just saw gopher's long wall of text

Hey ika, you're online on this thread right now
Don't you have anything to say?

Gopher if you do that could you please also tell me who was it who accused blarraun of skewing probability numbers? Pretty sure someone did that but I can't remember who...I have to poof now bye

Hado are you just obfuscating the thread with your blarraun question? I mean ure not even asking "what do you think of the exchange between urakro and blar?", youre asking others to analyse blar specifically. What is the point of asking others to analyse blarraun's behaviour and alignment?...we need not even guess anymore...

Jenny...pm glitch

Lynch this botch plsthx

No I'm actually thinking you're town now. You and probably hado too...For not noticing that rook is now confirmed town

Rook not getting his role pm until after the start of day 2 means he's not mafia
Thank you QT for making my life easier XD ♡
I know I'm town, jenny and hado are most probably town too for not noticing the above. and rook and Helvete are confirmed town. So that leaves:
Ika
Sinny
Urakro
Reluctantly
Gopher
Breadboard
Pmj

Out of the above, pmj and ika did not vote happy
That means atleast 1 of the remaining pool is scum

Lol @ breadboard autocorrect

Out of the remaining pool, RB and Reluctantly are the most green. Jenny do you agree with me?

Errm i was thinking if rook was scum, wouldn't his buddies ask why he's not on the chat? Umm nvm yeah you're right this is not necessarily true

Wait...so roleblocker works alone?

Nooo im not :'c I really thought that roleblocker and the other 2 mafia have one chat and work together :'c

This is ridiculous. I feel ridiculous even having to explain something like this. My blade runner avatar had nothing to do with you, it was inspired by my recent conversations with a scanner darkly and his blade runner profile pic. If you're so curious to know, I did change my avatar before you did, I remember checking the sign up thread a couple of times after I did and you hadn't changed your avatar yet. I don't even know why you're assuming I'm shadowing you lol I felt like swapping out later and it's not like you're the only one who did. This is all so irrelevant but it does make me annoyed that you think I'm shadowing you wtf...i dont know what you mean about the we we we thing, you mean the exchange of jokes? I thought we were joking around...if it makes you feel any better i really was joking around and never meant any of the jokey crap i said to you. I thought you knew this because you always seem to initiate the joking...


In light of the stuff above i think this comment has a personal dimension to it and I'm not liking this one bit.



Ok i did say I fucked up so obviously I'm taking it back


I know i fucked up with my Helvete push. And I'm sorry for that.



Ouch. Am I really playing that horribly? I misunderstood Reluctantly's question and it delayed the answers because i had zero idea what he wanted me to answer. ..until he quoted the bits.
Okay it's not really the criticism that is making me feel hurt, it's more the stuff at the beginning of your post...combined with the criticism at the end i think im being an annoyance to everyone. i think i understand what blarraun said about feeling unwanted. Sorry everyone

QT i know you've had to deal with this shit enough since the start of this game but im out

I haven't read it yet, but my intuition given what I have read is that she's town. There are several reasons for this, but there's no point in me concluding anything until I've actually read the filter.

 

[Rook]

@Rook
Re: The avatar thing
While yes avatars can confuse, it's not a good way for mafia to manipulate things since they're directly accountable for it. Avatars draw attention, they're literally... well... your avatar. I honestly don't think it's worth pursuing because to a mafia, it would represent such a small gain, for such a large cost in attention.

That does makes sense, though I was intrigued by the possibility and curious as to the explanation.
A crafty mafioso would not change avatars, seeing as they run the risk of drawing overt attention or having to explain themselves.
Then you get the whole double bluff thing and so on, but meh, it is an almost insignificant factor in a game such as this.

The subliminal effects of avatars would be intriguing study though, but seeing as it would be a tangent powered by curiosity rather than a factor of the game itself, no such wandering will occur.



Sleep beckons, will probably see a computer again in 5-8 hours. I think I shall study Sinny and Redbaron's logs on the morrow. Adieu until then.

I do hope you don't move out of town Zerk ^.^

 

[Hadoblado]

Cool. (Taking up the yellow = theorycrafting idea from ika)

I think, for newbies, there's a lot of avenues of learning to read people, but they're far from all equal. Unlike in other games, you can't actually trust the people giving you hints as to what are good reads.I think that, as a rule, focus on the things that have the biggest impact. Mafia forces people into a kind of Cartesian level doubt, in which it's very easy to expend enormous energy questioning every little thing. But if you focus on the things that directly matter, and force everyone to do things like vote and make cases which directly matter, then you know you're interacting with the more fundamental elements of the game. If everyone made a case, you'd know that there were three nice big juicy fake cases being made. That's as bedrock as it gets.

As a good measure, I'd say that if what you're focusing on can't be used to convince others, it's not a good way to analyse, as even if you're right, it's not going to allow you to lynch the scum in question. You can use all this minutia to make your own reads, but it shouldn't be the central reasoning.

Nobody will ever lynch another person for deleting their avatar. Not reasonably anyway :P

 

[The Gopher]

Okay I don't have all the reasons but I'm confident that Rook is town. I thought Cheeseumpuffs was town until he stopped posting but turns out he stopped posting for legit reasons. I thought blar was odd until he stopped posting and left and I doubt he would have been offended if he was legit scum and there was reason to be attacked in his mind. Rook seems like a chill dude so far.

I also still think Reluctantly is town based on yesterday's play along with Urokri. I get the feeling zerk is town. Not only was she against the happy lynch and blah blah but she is different from last game and I doubt she would play the emotional manipulation card unless she was actually upset, I mean she has no reason to. I like Jennywocky. Also the Night kill.

This leaves me with Sinny 91 and I'm compiling a list of everytime someone says she is off. Which while is totally a possibility it's just unlikely if it is a large amount. If I find out it isn't a large amount then I'll go the other way on it. She also responds every single time someone calls her out in any way shape or form. Which I mean fair.... but it almost seems overly defensive. (I haven't made the case yet I'll be looking into her today and after I get back from fencing) Now I know she'll probably respond to this with another reason. Also while I'm much sillier 3 years ago I found something in my old filter which said lynch the third most suspicious person in a lurker lynch because that's where scum hide out. Which would have been Sinny.

PMJ I'll have to look into, Iki seems nice and is asking for useful stuff but until he posts his thoughts I'll have no idea. That leaves RB and Hado.

Now I'll drop it while I follow the other leads but you know how I said I intuitively think hado is town? Well intuitively he didn't react how I expected, in any shape or form. I have no idea why Town Hado would still think I'm scum after reading that unless he's mafia who needs me open for a lynch later, or to muddy a night kill on me. Also I always think he's town when I'm not directly interacting with him and think he's scum when I am. Yeah I changed my mind. Not gonna spend ages with reasoning cause it'll bloat the thread and I'm gonna be as concise as possible from now on. The only reason I'm unsure is a lot of people seem to think he is town.

Rb's slightly different from last game but he also gave reasons that are now no longer valid day two.

That said if Sinny is scum, then Hado is likely to be scum. You shouldn't try to look for these types of patterns when one of them hasn't flipped but Hado seems to be for a Town sinny that doesn't make sense so those are my thoughts. I'll continue looking through Sinny's filter after I do normal things you do after waking up and see if I actually have a case or if my mind is fooling me.

 

[The Gopher]

EBWOP

Rb's slightly different from last game but he also gave reasons for being different that are now no longer valid day two so I'll be watching him closely.

 

[Reluctantly]

I'm home, I've decided to keep playing. I'm going to ignore any meaning behind rage-quitting, since I don't know if it's manipulation or genuine or perhaps both.

Need to address everything up to this point and clarify my position on the game and my read on everyone, but for now the avatar thing,

I could see mafia doing that to blend in more; the risk depends on the context though. So I disagree with this talk that it's something a mafia wouldn't do because it could very well be, depending on how the game is going and the players involved. Unfortunately, this makes me question Hado again, because if he was mafia and Zerk was as well, he would want to make it all sound illegitimate for mafia to consider. Doesn't mean I'm right, but it's another drop in the bucket for me and I find Hado's lack of skepticism about a lot of things this game to be quite strange.

 

[Hadoblado]

After reading 3/4 of Zerks filter, Zerkalo is town.

She's not been having a good time, and I can certainly see JennyWocky aggressive suspicion being the last straw. If she was scum, she was setting up for this since day one. Her frustration at having to mull over such a vast quantity of information just to come up with no real reads? That I can understand. My gut tells me she's town, my head can think of a multitude of small reasons why she's town (as she's been quite consistent), and can't really see any good reasons why she's red.

I wish I had have dived her filter earlier, maybe she'd not have left? Either way, Zerkalo! Please come back. I trust you (even if you don't trust me), and your input being trusted as it is, is valuable.

 

[The Gopher]

Specifically his lack of skepticism about everything that doesn't involve me. Thinking about it I actually want a higher profile lynch today. Someone like Sinny, Rb, Hado, or even Me simply because while I still haven't properly analysed the Happy lynch apart from Hado's and Sinny's reaction since we now know Helevte is town and not suspicious for it. Something that's so polarising would make it much easier for whatever town is left to work out who's town and mafia.

I did personally wonder about the avatar however I ended up dismissing it based on the fact the posts were good and the reasons given later (for urkor) not on the fact that avatar changing is entirely without context/wiofm.

 

[Reluctantly]

After reading 3/4 of Zerks filter, Zerkalo is town.

She's not been having a good time, and I can certainly see JennyWocky aggressive suspicion being the last straw. If she was scum, she was setting up for this since day one. Her frustration at having to mull over such a vast quantity of information just to come up with no real reads? That I can understand. My gut tells me she's town, my head can think of a multitude of small reasons why she's town (as she's been quite consistent), and can't really see any good reasons why she's red.

I wish I had have dived her filter earlier, maybe she'd not have left? Either way, Zerkalo! Please come back. I trust you (even if you don't trust me), and your input being trusted as it is, is valuable.

See it's weird again. How do you know she's Town? Either you are the Cop, your mafia, or you've not been paying attention to the strange inconsistencies she's been making. If you were Town, I'd expect you to act least consider alternatives, but here you seem so decided, especially given that I already can picture this as you again backing her up. I mean really if you already know I think you are in league with her, why do you keep backing her up without considering the alternative?

 

[The Gopher]

Oh good point. Really bad idea to bring that up but the cop thing could explain a few things, but again only if he is cop not mafia.

 

[The Gopher]

Wait no he's not cop or he wouldn't be suspicious of me. I would be instantly his first read.

 

[Urakro]

I'm home, I've decided to keep playing. I'm going to ignore any meaning behind rage-quitting, since I don't know if it's manipulation or genuine or perhaps both.

Just consider it a big accident of my stupid play, man. Which is all good, I'm moving on. But I did create a huge distraction. Gotta look past that, and focus on the dynamics of the game.

 

[Hadoblado]

Actually you wouldn't Gopher, you'd be on my list though. My cop habits are to check the quieter ones. You're similar to Puffy yes, but the sheer quantity of your posts does bring your base tell risk up.

I'm not cop though, and if I was, I would not have checked Zerkalo. I would likely have checked Rook because I would have the power to steer people onto or off her, and she represents an enormous area of ambiguity.

What are the strange inconsistencies she's been making? I'm whiteknighting her now. Show me your case.

 

[Hadoblado]

EBWOP
What inconsistencies of Zerkalo's are you talking about Reluctantly?

Because I find you far more puzzling than I do zerk.

 

[Urakro]

Also @Reluctantly,

Are you still confident on your read on zerkalo after reading through all her posts?

 

[Hadoblado]

Zerkalo
Was late to receive her role PM
- QT would send it to her if she were scum
- Seems a bit pointless for a scum to pull something like this. Too peripheral.
Was scum last game and was quiet
- Didn’t have to change playstyles (but may not have realised this if scum)
- Did change styles
Takes issue with my case
- I expect her to have difficulty understanding it given that it’s so subjective
- I expect a town zerk think it lacking given how little she can relate
- Finding it lacking, it makes sense that she’d dismiss it
- A scum Zerk would have loved my case, because it was confusing the fuck out of town
Attacks Jenny
- While I don’t see Jenny as scummy, I don’t expect a newbie town to be paying attention to the same things I do.
Plays fast and loose with hunches
- And tests them! 
Suspected helvete
- Who then got NKed and proven townie. For a new zerkalo player, that doesn’t make sense. Why spend this time trying to kill helvete when you know they’re going down regardless? Doesn’t seem worth the effort.
- That said, she didn’t know she would NK helvete. It’s unlikely they knew they’d kill kelvete until night phase.
Fixates on Bronto’s modkill
- What’s the point for a town
“I'll wrote a proper Helvete post tomorrow im really tired bye also this game sucks”
- Shows that she’s not enjoying herself as much as she’d want
“ goodluck with moving and stuff...i know how tiring it can be
I feel like an ass that was the wrong time to announce that the game sucks, it sucked from the beggining because almost everyone's posts read like fillers...i didn't mean because of you im sorry”
- moreso
Made peace between RB, Gopher, and I
- This seems pro-town
- Was genuinely overwhelmed with the amount of posts
Thought bronto was a meaningless vote
Thought that we should focus on the people not doing anything to stand out
Suspects Reluctantly’s suspicious behaviour
Is angry, and understandably so

This is my notes from wading through her filter. Just quick ones.

 

[The Gopher]

Really? Surely the benefits of knowing if an experienced player is town or not would be helpful at least. I would totally check you first. Also I'm only on page 7 right now but it looks like the sinny is different train isn't unanimous. After I finish looking at what people say about her I'll look at what she says.

 

[Reluctantly]

Wait no he's not cop or he wouldn't be suspicious of me. I would be instantly his first read.

Well, unless he is Cop and you are mafia. Then it does make sense.

However, fuck it I'm already Role blocked so out with it then

I'm Cop, so that's not possible. Helvete was the initial peak, which was why I wanted him to defend himself and why I was so suspicious of Zerk when Helvete made posts that were in line with a confused town questioning everything and considering all alternatives. I also knew he would be defensive because I knew he was Town. I wanted to see what Zerk would do. She behaved strange by really sticking to Helvete for weird reasons that didn't justify the vote that "she alone" made. No one else agreed with her and she was both unwilling to remove the vote and unwilling to openly consider the Happy vote. Her resistance to my questioning was strange because she was defensive and her door slam on Jenny was weird, though those could have been genuine personality quirks and irrelevant perhaps.


I realize this is a gamble, but hell with it. I'm pretty damn sure he's mafia at this point. And Zerk as well. If it's wrong, oh well, at least I made a move after I thought I had enough to get two mafia, even if it is only the 2nd round.

Also my night pick was Hado, but alas I was role blocked. I did consider lying to you all and saying I "know" he is mafia, but I'm not going to do that in case I'm completely wrong. THough I guess I'll be lynched anyway, but hey whatever.

What you got now Hado?

 

[Reluctantly]

Also @Reluctantly,

Are you still confident on your read on zerkalo after reading through all her posts?

Oh Yes

 

[Reluctantly]

Plus let's not forget that Hado outed me openly as Cop...something a TOwnie would NOT do.

 

[Hadoblado]

Really really.

While yes, it would make me feel comfortable knowing that you're town, I don't play in such a way as to cater to myself just being comfortable.

The parallel that comes to mind is back in SCII, I never used to scout as terran unless they were random or protoss. Scouting makes you comfortable because you know what they're doing. But I understood both the zerg and terran matchups so well that by not sending a scout, I was being greedy enough to counter any opposing greed strat, while also being confident I couldn't die to cheese. I'd be left in ambiguity for longer, which is uncomfortable, but I subscribe to what I perceive as rational above all else.

This is the same. It would be great to know you're town. But what's the point if me confirming you town just gets you NKed anyway? And it's my uncertainty that leads to me acting townlike. No, I would check the more ambiguous player (rook), just like I would check ika tonight. Just like I checked Puffy and Artsu last game.

 

[Hadoblado]

You realise Reluctantly that accusing me of outing you as cop, means you're admitting you're cop.

But you're not doing that because a cop wouldn't do that.

You would only be offended if you were cop, you would not openly express the offense if you were cop.

FoS Reluctantly

 

[Hadoblado]

Oops sorry QT that shouldn't have been in red.

 

[Reluctantly]

Interesting, so you've got nothing, but a strange little story about my gamble.

VOTE Hado

You all can make up your own minds, but I've got nothing left to say at this point.

 

[The Gopher]

Lol, yeah normally I wouldn't believe someone instantly but it was so obvious you were the cop. So much blue theory and role talking and attempts at cop wifom.

But there was a chance they would change the Role Block tonight. I wonder if they picked up on you being cop and picked up on your defense of Helvete so decided to nk him. If so mafia are on the ball.

That said it's an unfortunate role call since it doesn't give us much and IF it was a lie on paper it's the one mafia would go with. (aka gives no firm positions and only tells us stuff we know) But again I do believe you're cop.

Also fair hado but no point talking about it now since it's just a waste of time and not relevant.

 

[The Gopher]

You realise Reluctantly that accusing me of outing you as cop, means you're admitting you're cop.

But you're not doing that because a cop wouldn't do that.

You would only be offended if you were cop, you would not openly express the offense if you were cop.

FoS Reluctantly

he just role claimed.

 

[Reluctantly]

I've said this before, Town has no reason to say they are cop if they aren't. If I'm mafia, the town cop can claim Cop and get a mafia. Or they can sit back and let me get lynched anyway when people find out I'm wrong.

Either way, it's lose lose for me if I'm mafia at this point in the game.

Soooo...you better think of something fast

 

[The Gopher]

Yeah if "a real" Town cop claimed now (if they are in a good position to gamble they might not til day three to get one more read AND the reluctantly false claim) But honestly they might have two reads by now and reluctantly which could be considered enough.

 

[The Gopher]

So basically I agree with reluctantly there's no reason for mafia who everyone basically thinks is town to role claim cop when he could give up 2-3 reads to a real cop and a confirmed scum.

Que Hado rethinking his life.

 

[Hadoblado]

Continue having nothing to say. I'm sure that'll convince everyone that your actions match your deeply held convictions.

I need to clear my head. I've been on for around four hours, and I can see myself OMGUSing you. Not that I haven't been suspecting you, but I just can't see how you can wrangle together shit like this if you're town.

A town calling another town cop is not scummy. Because that would bring attention off the cop. Which a townie would realise and not be offended by.

But if you were cop, you'd be trying to take this attention off yourself, meaning you wouldn't point this out. So I don't think you're cop.

Which means I think you're scum. And while I've read every post you've made once, I haven't payed enough attention to you as I've had other things going on. So once I've gone and got some sun and maybe even some exercise, I'm going to come back with what I hope is clear eyes, and I'm going to filter dive you, to see whether I can get a more stable read on you outside of the last few massive contradictions you've posted (the other one being when you considered Zerk as emotionally manipulative for leaving, then threatened to leave).

@Gopher
No, he didn't. He's not roleclaiming because if he did he'd have gone straight on a scum. And he's going straight on me and I know I'm not scum. Reluctantly. If you're roleclaiming, you need to state in no uncertain terms that you read me as scum, so that when I flip green, you are insta-lynched.

 

[Hadoblado]

Holy fucking jesus is this real? *rethinks life*

If you're claiming give me your reads. I KNOW that I'm not one of them. Impossible.

So you need to tell people who your other reads are right now.

 

[Hadoblado]

Shitting christ fucking jesus.

IF I KNEW YOU WERE COP AS SCUM YOUD BE DEAD! I wouldn't say anything. I'd just NK you. What the actual fuck?!

 

[Reluctantly]

This is too easy right now. If Town finds my role to be in question, they can lynch me first. If I'm mafia, they get one mafia. If I'm Town, they get two mafia. I'm fine with that. It will prove everything.

UNVOTE Hado
VOTE Reluctantly


Ahh hahaha.

 

[Hadoblado]

So I'm going to be real explicit here.

I *know* that they haven't investigated me as red. They can't claim that they have. Because if they do they're instalynched.

A scum would not *know* that they hadn't been read.

 

[The Gopher]

Lol I was about to ask if you seriously missed a post or if you were actually retarded.

 

[Hadoblado]

Stop martyring and post your two investigations.

 

[The Gopher]

Well, unless he is Cop and you are mafia. Then it does make sense.

However, fuck it I'm already Role blocked so out with it then

I'm Cop, so that's not possible. Helvete was the initial peak, which was why I wanted him to defend himself and why I was so suspicious of Zerk when Helvete made posts that were in line with a confused town questioning everything and considering all alternatives. I also knew he would be defensive because I knew he was Town. I wanted to see what Zerk would do. She behaved strange by really sticking to Helvete for weird reasons that didn't justify the vote that "she alone" made. No one else agreed with her and she was both unwilling to remove the vote and unwilling to openly consider the Happy vote. Her resistance to my questioning was strange because she was defensive and her door slam on Jenny was weird, though those could have been genuine personality quirks and irrelevant perhaps.


I realize this is a gamble, but hell with it. I'm pretty damn sure he's mafia at this point. And Zerk as well. If it's wrong, oh well, at least I made a move after I thought I had enough to get two mafia, even if it is only the 2nd round.

Also my night pick was Hado, but alas I was role blocked. I did consider lying to you all and saying I "know" he is mafia, but I'm not going to do that in case I'm completely wrong. THough I guess I'll be lynched anyway, but hey whatever.

What you got now Hado?

Wait you still might have missed a post. Helvete, Then you but got role blocked hence claim. (which is a poor reason imo)