are more people overconfident than overly intimidated and if so, why? first thought: perhaps overconfidence is both provoked and rewarded by stress/violence in the distance (school/society, etc) and intimidation is caused by having boundaries crossed in intimate contexts (parents/child). and today parents are more likely to act emphatic towards kids, than whole groups of people are to enact humanistic values. so narcissism remains but intimidation becomes more rare.
given that narcissism (maximum overconfidence) is a most severe developmental block (the whole personality is locked into a bubble), while schizoid PD (maximum intimidation) is closer to being like a developmental tunnel (much of the personality remains unaffected), it seems unlikely that the more severe disorder could be caused by more distant circumstances, society.
but i think the parents of the narcissist are required to impose the worldly circumstances onto the child, making them intimately real to the child, in early phases of childhood.
i am thinking of parents who are rough, materialistic, distressed, most removed from the present moment, reflecting violence in their worklife, society, possibly bombs dropping on their town, food being scarce, alcoholism, drug criminality, etc. the structural disorder is touching the child in the form of rough touches and noise devoid of personal meaning. the child kicks and screams, it fights, it expands its will and penetrates into the unwelcomming void. narcissism is born. parents need to be only careless or primitive to make no effort to shield the child from such stress, to even enact their stress randomly and somewhat naturally (albeit primitively) instead.
so rather than thinking of it as a dichotomy of distance of relationships, like family vs school, a different model is needed to understand this better, the model of first, second and third perspective.
in that hypothesis, narcissism appears to be a disorder provoked by circumstances in the third person realm, the realm of material, concrete, physical conflict, which is very real to even a baby and requires no analytic comprehension, to be bothersome. so a circumstantial disorder can condition the most early levels.
and shizioid/avoidant PD appears to be a disorder provoked by circumstances in the second person realm, which probably requires a basic amount of analytic awareness, namely an idea of boundaries, so an environmental disorder here will only begin to imprint itself on the person once it perceives itself as a distinct person, which is a later stage. parents need to have very particular dominant behavioral patterns to consequently intimidate their child. it doesn't just happen without intend.
that was meant to be a very short post
its really just a fleeting hypothesis and i am not sure if it aligns with the data at all ...