Obsession with the future

[ProxyAmenRa]

I spend most of my time developing statistical forecast models, simulating new power electronics, running monte carlo simulations on capital structure for risk/response/financial analysis, studying economics in my spare time, etc. All of these things involve trying to forecast the future in one respect or another. My life is revolving around trying to find out what is going to happen in the future. From the moment I wake up in the morning, to when I go to sleep and in my dreams. I am obsessed with the future. I just want to know what is going to happen. It is life's greatest mystery!!

For these reasons I should start a hedge fund.

 

[pjoa09]

For these reasons you should not. Your life is enviable.

Hedge Fund disasters are disastrous.

You could try investing.

 

[ProxyAmenRa]

For these reasons you should not. Your life is enviable.

Hedge Fund disasters are disastrous.

You could try investing.

There're no good investments anymore...Governments collectively have destroyed society's capital structure.

 

[Etheri]

I think this is a very clear expression of you being an J rather than P. In all honesty, The only thing I care about regarding tomorrow, is the hope that I won't have to wake up too early.

 

[nanook]

the description sounds like a compensation for a missing intuitive sense of continuity to me. the thinking mind has to create some flimsy left brained projections and it has to anticipate their manifestation in order to picture it's own exitance tomorrow at all. without such an objective projection it would expect it's own death, when it looks in that direction. that should be true for every type. what's different in me is that my (ego)mind has no need to picture itself tomorrow, to look in that objective direction, because i have a deeper subjective sense of taking tomorrow for granted. i am also somewhat obsessed with the future. but not with such left brained objective projections or their manifestation. my idea of future is different altogether, because i see it as nothing but the becoming of the subject. that includes central issues like awakening but also superficial issues like where is my learning process going, my comprehension of something, my intuitive map of everything. it's not limited to my own subject either. it's a future about which i have nothing to do. i just have this acute but vage or abstract impression of what this future is up to, and i orient towards it, albeit doing so is 100% irrational - you can't explain to anyone, why your subject (your intuitive learning) could utilize this or that experience, when you don't know in concrete left brained terms what could be made out of it, after it's finished. but you know, it's going to be big, deep, subjectively substantial.

 

[SkyWalker]

prediction is only an advantage if you say it out loud and people actually listen to your prediction, because then you have control

silent predictions are of no use, thats why they say "you cant predict the future"

 

[SkyWalker]

Stock markets are there to fund companies. Did you know that means take money/control from individuals and insert it into big monstrous entities.

Who cares what your computer screen tells you about your "credits". Or how you transfer your credits from A to B, with some computer profit.

The worst investors actually get a free present once, when they spend it once, and then lost all their money. The best investors keep investing. Thus nobody actually has the control/money, only the companies. hehehehehehe nice trick huh....

 

[Duxwing]

There're no good investments anymore...Governments collectively have destroyed society's capital structure.

There-there, Proxy. It'll be OK. The banks are still standing, I can still get a loan, so even if there is something rotten in the state of the economy, the fat lady hasn't sung. And take heart in mankind's will, for even in the darkest days of the Second World War, newborns cuddled their mothers' bosoms and young city-dwellers set up their shops for the first time. And so too is it today, with the economy growing, albeit slowly, and once fearful investors returning to the market.

(right click and open this in a new tab)

May your future days be sweeter,
-Duxwing

 

[ProxyAmenRa]

There-there, Proxy. It'll be OK. The banks are still standing, I can still get a loan, so even if there is something rotten in the state of the economy, the fat lady hasn't sung.

The fat lady started singing back in 2007 and she has not stopped.

 

[Duxwing]

The fat lady started singing back in 2007 and she has not stopped.

Why do you think so?

-Duxwing

 

[Ex-User (5841)]

My life is revolving around trying to find out what is going to happen in the future.

Knowing what the future holds brings safety, which is arguably what you're really after, or at least the false security of safety given chaos theory.

 

[crippli]

Land still appears to be a decent investment, all over claimed as far as I am aware. As the globe doesn't appear to grow in pace with the people. Things are changing quickly. One used to be able to just claim what you found. It's strange how long ago that seems to be. It's not that long ago.

My great great (great?) grandfather fought in the US south/north war. Land was the payment. And that's just 80 years ago or something. But seems to be so long ago, that it's not even a real memory.

Have you developed models to predict what happens next? Mass extinction and once more finders keepers? or shortage of land, price goes up?

 

[ProxyAmenRa]

Why do you think so?

-Duxwing

It was a currency expansion induced business cycle. Created in part due to the conditions of governments' monopoly over money, central banking system and special privileges granted to banking and financial institutions. In other terms, central planning. Of course there are the specifics peculiar to this business cycle but every business cycle has peculiar specifics.

The currency expansion induced boom phase of the cycle by its nature distorts where resources are allocated in society. People invest resources in unproductive ventures due to the false price signal perceived as society being more wealthy than it was. The bust phase of cycle is when the investments in unproductive ventures are realized; the investments fail. The economy undergoes a process of liquidating the bad investments. A correction takes place; the market revalues the factors of production closer to what they're actually worth according to the subjective value judgments of market participants.

Ever since the economy entered the bust phase of the business cycle, governments and central banks have been doing everything within their power to prevent a correction from taking place. In turn, price signals are still grossly distorted. Continuous QE, open market operations and plunge protection are giving market participants the false perception of wealth and stability. It is as if the central planners don't have the faintest clue what a sound price system is for.

Over the years a central planning induced economic crisis has tuned into a crisis of the central planner's own financial stability/viability. If they discontinue the monetization of debt (QE) and open market operations, interest on treasuries will rise. You will hit this "fiscal cliff" and possibly a positive feedback loop on treasury yields if the government can't meet its obligations. Quite a disastrous situation for any institution heavily invested in treasuries. No one really knows what will happen if this eventuates but there is great speculation regarding the stability of the monetary system. A great depression scenario?

Before anything of the sort happens above there will be direct monetization instead of indirect (through the banking system). Under such a circumstance you will start to see a greater index than the current 10% CPI. All other central banks will start their printing presses to maintain current parity. People's savings will be reduced in value.

Now people want to increase taxes on the most productive members in society so they can achieve some perverse notion of "fairness". They will give up just like they have done in France and the UK; Atlas shrugged. Society becomes less wealthy.

In conclusion, the fat lady started singing in 2007 and has not stopped. Though, this is not to say a good investment still won't make you money. We're making smart transformers. ^_^ Dey print money, bitchez!

Knowing what the future holds brings safety, which is arguably what you're really after, or at least the false security of safety given chaos theory.

Actually it is all about how to make the best decision with limited information.

 

[Duxwing]

Proxy, thank you for the excellent lecture on prices. Now, I speculate that the boom phase began in part due to massive government spending during World War II and the Cold War; hence, one could look to the immediate past of these events to see how they emerged.

The Great Depression was impervious to FDR's New Deal, and it was only the very influx of wartime cash that resuscitated the economies of America and the world. So how, in your opinion, should the governments of the Earth have responded to such a disastrous economic crash? In the 1930s, social policies failed and the treasury strangled the economy with high interest rates, but today, low interest rates seem to have staunched the bleeding and even brought a tentative turnaround.

In other words, what combination of financial instruments would offer superior results to QE and targeted direct aid in 'resetting' a depressed economy?

-Duxwing

 

[pjoa09]

There're no good investments anymore...Governments collectively have destroyed society's capital structure.

In that case you should have an obsession with jogging and meditating.

 

[ProxyAmenRa]

Now, I speculate that the boom phase began in part due to massive government spending during World War II and the Cold War; hence, one could look to the immediate past of these events to see how they emerged.

The Great Depression was impervious to FDR's New Deal, and it was only the very influx of wartime cash that resuscitated the economies of America and the world.

I could not disagree more.

The policies that the congress under Hover enacted and under FDR were of the most perverse and destructive kind. I have trawled through my old posts and found:

http://www.intpforum.com/showpost.php?p=272198&postcount=23
http://www.intpforum.com/showpost.php?p=273941&postcount=32

Spoiler

Though, I forgot to mention: the institution of extremely high tariffs which destroyed exporting industries and led to trade wars; institution the minimum wage which caused vast amounts of people to become unemployed which caused industries en mass to fail; the mandates which coerced farmers en mass to destroy produce en mass to maintain high food prices which lead to food shortages and mass starvation; legal tender laws which prevented people to trade in sound currencies; institution of extremely high tax rates of the wealthy which destroyed investment; institution of production regulations which led to people en mass being fined heavily and going to jail for producing goods different to how the government mandated; price controls across all industry led to business failures en mass; maximum working hours per week across all industry led to a reduction of people's incomes; the diversion of resources to government programs that had people working to produce nothing of value to anyone; and the list goes on, and on, and on, and on. All of these things led to the continuation of a depression that lasted 15 years. IT was not until the end of WWII and deregulation of the market en mass apart from monetary policy which led to growth in the economy. In addition, the US was one of the only countries that still had capital in tact so they could export.

So how, in your opinion, should the governments of the Earth have responded to such a disastrous economic crash? In the 1930s, social policies failed and the treasury strangled the economy with high interest rates, but today, low interest rates seem to have staunched the bleeding and even brought a tentative turnaround.

In other words, what combination of financial instruments would offer superior results to QE and targeted direct aid in 'resetting' a depressed economy?

-Duxwing

As I said implied, for the economy to recover a correction is needed. Institutions, businesses, individuals, etc. who have malinvested need to fail and the resources allocated towards the malinvestments need to be liquidated. Prices need to readjust so rational economic calculation can take place. Only when this occurs, a recovery can take place. This means pain. Pain for everyone. Looking at the historical record of busts in the economy before governments started to intervene to promote a recovery, it would typically take two years for the economy two years to return to a suitable state of affairs.

Government relinquish its monopoly on money i.e. removal of legal tender laws.
Removal of special privileges granted to banking and financial institutions.
Removal of central banking.
A reduction in taxes by 99.99%.
A reduction in regulations that cause barriers to entry of market.
A 99.99% reduction in government spending.

Then let Schumpeter's creative destruction take place.

Either way, the hurt is coming. The question we should ask ourselves is whether or not we want it over and done with, twenty years worth of stagnation with the potential for a systemic collapse or a systemic collapse. The most likely option that will occur is the twenty years of stagnation.

I fear political despotism more than I fear the ramifications of systemic collapse. God forbid a repeat of the last century.


ALTERNATIVELY:

The post-keynesians suggest a modern debt jubilee. This is conducive to another form of getting it over and done with now and it is more politically feasible.

In that case you should have an obsession with jogging and meditating.

I am just about to go jogging actually.

 

[The Gopher]

NONONONO bad Duxwing bad! You set him off again...

 

[ProxyAmenRa]

NONONONO bad Duxwing bad! You set him off again...

Damn it, damn it, damn it. I have to stop. This is not good for my mental health.

Perhaps I should join AA or something??!!!???

 

[Cognisant]

EA, Economists Anonymous

I still think we should let Proxy run the world, he can sort it out.

Edit: Hey Proxy here's a challenge for you, figure out how the fix the world's economy in a relatively painless way.

 

[ProxyAmenRa]

EA, Economists Anonymous

I still think we should let Proxy run the world, he can sort it out.

Edit: Hey Proxy here's a challenge for you, figure out how the fix the world's economy in a relatively painless way.

I suggest we play Eve Online together. ^_^

 

[Duxwing]

NONONONO bad Duxwing bad! You set him off again...

Clearly, I am ignorant of something important. Is economics a neurotic obsession for Proxy?

@ProxyAmenRa Would you please explain what I've done wrong?

-Duxwing

 

[ProxyAmenRa]

Clearly, I am ignorant of something important. Is economics a neurotic obsession for Proxy?

@ProxyAmenRa Would you please explain what I've done wrong?

-Duxwing

I am not allowed to speak at length about politics, economics, philosophy, etc. for the next couple of months. Well, I don't mind the here and there odd yawn with people but writing hundred of posts...It wastes too much of my time...

The neurotic obsession is not economics, it is replying to people who address me in their posts in one form or another.

 

[RubberDucky451]

Spending too much time examining the past or the future is dangerous. Especially for INTPs I imagine as we're likely to fall into the Ti Si loop.

 

[BigApplePi]

All of these things involve trying to forecast the future in one respect or another.

Trying to predict the future is like waving one end of a flexible tree branch in your hand and trying to predict where the other end will go.

 

[BigApplePi]

@Proxy

It was a currency expansion induced business cycle. Created in part due to the conditions of governments' monopoly over money, central banking system and special privileges granted to banking and financial institutions. In other terms, central planning. Of course there are the specifics peculiar to this business cycle but every business cycle has peculiar specifics.

The currency expansion induced boom phase of the cycle by its nature distorts where resources are allocated in society. People invest resources in unproductive ventures due to the false price signal perceived as society being more wealthy than it was. The bust phase of cycle is when the investments in unproductive ventures are realized; the investments fail. The economy undergoes a process of liquidating the bad investments. A correction takes place; the market revalues the factors of production closer to what they're actually worth according to the subjective value judgments of market participants.

Ever since the economy entered the bust phase of the business cycle, governments and central banks have been doing everything within their power to prevent a correction from taking place. In turn, price signals are still grossly distorted. Continuous QE, open market operations and plunge protection are giving market participants the false perception of wealth and stability. It is as if the central planners don't have the faintest clue what a sound price system is for.

Over the years a central planning induced economic crisis has tuned into a crisis of the central planner's own financial stability/viability. If they discontinue the monetization of debt (QE) and open market operations, interest on treasuries will rise. You will hit this "fiscal cliff" and possibly a positive feedback loop on treasury yields if the government can't meet its obligations. Quite a disastrous situation for any institution heavily invested in treasuries. No one really knows what will happen if this eventuates but there is great speculation regarding the stability of the monetary system. A great depression scenario?

Before anything of the sort happens above there will be direct monetization instead of indirect (through the banking system). Under such a circumstance you will start to see a greater index than the current 10% CPI. All other central banks will start their printing presses to maintain current parity. People's savings will be reduced in value.

Now people want to increase taxes on the most productive members in society so they can achieve some perverse notion of "fairness". They will give up just like they have done in France and the UK; Atlas shrugged. Society becomes less wealthy.

In conclusion, the fat lady started singing in 2007 and has not stopped. Though, this is not to say a good investment still won't make you money. We're making smart @Proxy

That is an excellent explanation of what went on. I note that you used the word, "central" a total of seven times. So the problem is not government per se, but central government. My intuition (or is it generalized reason?) says anything central has difficulty handling what anything outside the center is going to do, especially if the system behaves at all like an organism. Is what we need then a de-centralized government if we must have a government at all?

 

[Cognisant]

Decentralised government just leads to conflict, what we need is a decision making system that isn't going to be overwhelmed by complexity, it's like how ants can't figure out how to build a ladder out of themselves to reach a sugar bowl because their intelligence is distributed across many nodes with information sharing limitations, not consolidated into a single processing unit capable of holistic understanding.

What's needed is a more centralised government that's more organised to facilitate better communication thereby overcoming the limitations of individual nodes, although of course there is a limit to this, humans themselves are the weakest link in our own systems.

 

[BigApplePi]

Decentralised government just leads to conflict, what we need is a decision making system that isn't going to be overwhelmed by complexity, it's like how ants can't figure out how to build a ladder out of themselves to reach a sugar bowl because their intelligence is distributed across many nodes with information sharing limitations, not consolidated into a single processing unit capable of holistic understanding.

What's needed is a more centralised government that's more organised to facilitate better communication thereby overcoming the limitations of individual nodes, although of course there is a limit to this, humans themselves are the weakest link in our own systems.

The ant methphor loses me as some Aftrican ants DO build bridges of themselves.

Decentralized government loses me too because there is a natural conflict imbedded in non-centrality. It could be called the "market place" or supply and demand. This leads to proper pricing. A problem is "market place" is not a simple thing.

Better communication is good, but what matters is what and how much is communicated and which way? If the central government can't handle feedback, it won't know what it is governing. That makes the gov't "stupid" to put it crudely.

Humans as weak links? Doesn't matter how weak they are. The system is for them.

Good post. It leaves things unanswered.