Yeah I'm selfish. Instead of thinking "how do I get town to lynch mafia?", I think "how best can I figure out who's mafia?", then leave the actual convincing to some unfortunate future installment of hado.
For the record, all my reads were real I think. I worry people think I was entirely fabricating cases. I wasn't, I just either changed my mind, or tested things in such a way that my mind was changed (I really didn't wanna back off on Blar).
Part of what I was playing with was not tunneling (my script that is). Game one I tunneled a town ESC and got lynched because of it. Game two I tunneled a town Gopher and got lynched because of it. This game I didn't want to tunnel, so I didn't. Given very specific outcomes I would have tunneled (if Blar had have claimed blue, if fukyo had have claimed blue, if Fukyo had not replied with enough frustration etc.), but I did not want it as my default.
By the end I didn't think Sinny town, and I never had real conviction in the read. I just thought that if she survived until late-game she'd be evaluated on her own merit, and by me vouching for her early when there was nothing to really push her on, I would save town time. Narrow the focus a little. Don't get me wrong, she was slight green, it wasn't completely out of nothing, but it wasn't something I'd take credit for given how convinced I was by the end that she was red.
I didn't have the certainty on Yellow to convince because I wasn't 100% convinced, and I didn't have the time. She did seem like the kind of lynch to give a lot of info, and I didn't have any strong red reads that I'd prefer. Yellow seemed more green (chromatic-confusion+1) than others, but it was a day one read. I couldn't be that confident.
I think you're approaching this game with a kind of helpless mindset? Random? Yeah there's chance... but it's not true chance. Just unknowns. And you can make more of those unknowns known until it feels less like chance and more like skill. Similar to poker. You're going to have bad beats, but there's a reason that some win while others lose. Even if you lynch a town day one, the point is to frame day one in such a way that mafia are forced to act in order to make that town go down. That means making sure everyone is pressured at some point. Our day one was actually quite good despite me having to claim blue. It's only after that that everything went to shit :/