Does optimism lead to overconfidence?

[YOLOisonlyprinciple]

As the title reads.
Sometimes i feel overconfident and superior to my colleagues even though im not better than them in any way. I tend to compare my best with their worst, mentally.
I feel my complete optimism about every part of life leads to this overconfidence.


What are your thoughts about optimism and overconfidence

 

[Cognisant]

Not had much experience with it myself, indeed my definition of "optimism" is hoping for the best, to be so optimistic as you call it is unknown to me.

Why do you think you perceive things this way?

 

[Happy]

IMO, it's inexperience that leads to overconfidence.

 

[Tannhauser]

I would assume that the feeling of confidence and optimism are closely related chemically in the brain. Probably related to serotonin.

For example if you inject a monkey with serotonin, he will rise through the social ranks just by virtue of having higher concentration of serotonin in his brain.

Now imagine you are that monkey.

 

[Deleted member 1424]

dunning-kruger

*cough*

No offense.

 

[Pressure's Spring]

Optimism is an unbalanced interpretation of reality.

We could also understand this as ignorance.

The confidence that is derived from it is false.

Consider the man who walks into the open territory of a lion, with apparent confidence, and gets himself killed.

Do you think the man is/was confident?

Confidence requires the courage to perceive possibilities accurately and appreciate the risks.

False confidence, arising from ignorance, will always come to light when the factor or possibility he/she did not take into account is made apparent.

 

[Reluctantly]

No, but overconfidence implies a false sense of optimism.

But somebody that expects the worst and hopes for the best has a much more realistic sense of optimism; they will be ready and able to deal with the worst, yet be realistically optimistic about the future.

 

[Ex-User (13503)]

As the title reads.

What are your thoughts about optimism and overconfidence

To answer the question in the title: No, it's a false relationship.

Lots of people will say "reality > optimism, of course" without realizing that they're pining for an ideal and overconfident by default if they believe they know objective reality. Adaire linked dunning-kruger above. Others favor pessimism/cynicism being the ideal choice because then they can't be disappointed in the event of failure. Blind optimism is obviously no good either. It's just irrational.

The only functional answer is to hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and accept what happens; sort of an intersection between two concepts: Adaptive management and radical acceptance.

Accept the competencies/strengths/weaknesses of yourself and others, don't get hung up on denial or any other ego defense bullshit, and redirect that energy instead into discovering more about yourself and others so as to identify your true strengths and competencies so that your confidence is more rooted in reality.

 

[Shieru]

+1 @Lagomorph - what you say seems spot-on to me, and rather eloquently put ^^

As far as I've come to perceive the topic of psychology, it seems in nearly any case the middle-road between extreme biases is the most practical/healthiest. In the case of optimism and pessimism, too optimistic a belief can easily lead one to miscalculate reality and therefore attempt to do something unwarranted. However, pessimism can lead to irrational fears and disallow one from acting on what may be an otherwise intelligent judgement.

If someone has motive to falsely boost their confidence, out of countering low self-esteem, shame, etc. inflated optimism about one's own abilities is one common way the psyche will achieve this (re: dunning-kruger). This doesn't necessarily mean that optimism will lead to overconfidence in all situations, however. For example, one could have a happy-go-lucky attitude, and generally believe everything will turn out for the best. This doesn't necessarily make them believe them self to be more capable at anything, though.

 

[EyeSeeCold]

How does one measure overconfidence?

 

[QuickTwist]

How does one measure overconfidence?

I'd guess taking how many more times someone says they are good at something compared to their friends.

 

[Shieru]

How does one measure overconfidence?

I think one easy way would be to compare a person's actual ability to what they believe/say about them self. A test could be arranged to gauge their skills.

 

[Tannhauser]

How does one measure overconfidence?

Why do you want to measure it?

 

[Reluctantly]

Why do you want to measure it?

Why do you want to know why he wants to measure it?

 

[Tannhauser]

Why do you want to know why he wants to measure it?

Because I have an over-confidence measuring machine. I thought maybe he wants to borrow it.

 

[pjoa09]

Optimism is an unbalanced interpretation of reality.

We could also understand this as ignorance.

The confidence that is derived from it is false.

Consider the man who walks into the open territory of a lion, with apparent confidence, and gets himself killed.

Do you think the man is/was confident?

Confidence requires the courage to perceive possibilities accurately and appreciate the risks.

False confidence, arising from ignorance, will always come to light when the factor or possibility he/she did not take into account is made apparent.

lol I suppose pessimism is totally balanced.

 

[Pressure's Spring]

Learn to read.

I never claimed that. Where did I say "pessimism is a balanced interpretation of reality"?

Saying optimism is an unbalanced interpretation of reality does not imply pessimism is a balanced interpretation.

It should be obvious that both are imbalanced.

To focus on the 'positive' possibilities denying the 'negative' possibilities is just as bad as denying the 'positive' and focusing on the 'negative'.

A balanced perspective would attempt to consolidate all the possibilities, and attempt to estimate the likelihood of each... This is what we call having realistic expectations.

 

[Pressure's Spring]

The instinct of defense is a hindrance to clarity.

It needs to establish itself as the innocent victim, and thus, shifts the responsibility towards the imagined perpetrator, thereby corrupting balanced judgment.

It presumes injustice without contemplation which inevitably leads to resentment.

From another perspective, the instinct of defense inhibits self-judgment, actively repelling possibilities that are not emotionally pleasing to one's self.

This leads to a false estimation of one's self, or what we otherwise refer to as narcissism.

 

[EyeSeeCold]

^
>This leads to a false estimation of one's self, or what we otherwise refer to as narcissism.

I'd guess taking how many more times someone says they are good at something compared to their friends.

What if said friends are just overly unsure of themselves?

I think one easy way would be to compare a person's actual ability to what they believe/say about them self. A test could be arranged to gauge their skills.

Would that work in OP's case? He admits that he is not actually better than his peers yet still retains a sense of confidence and optimism over them. I'm not sure that's D-K.

If overconfidence is when your poor estimation causes personal, relational, or professional failure and you aren't 'failing', is it really overconfidence? I guess that's what I was asking, speaking to the 'fake it til you make it' trope.

Or alternatively, how do we open ourselves to constructive criticism without falling victim to the trappings of depressive pessimism?

Why do you want to measure it?

Assuming overconfidence leads to failure and dissatisfaction it seems a good idea to be aware of my own biases. But see above for elaboration.

Because I have an over-confidence measuring machine. I thought maybe he wants to borrow it.

 

[Shieru]

Would that work in OP's case? He admits that he is not actually better than his peers yet still retains a sense of confidence and optimism over them. I'm not sure that's D-K.

If overconfidence is when your poor estimation causes personal, relational, or professional failure and you aren't 'failing', is it really overconfidence? I guess that's what I was asking, speaking to the 'fake it til you make it' trope.

Or alternatively, how do we open ourselves to constructive criticism without falling victim to the trappings of depressive pessimism?

ah, I see. I had thought you were posing the general question of how to objectively measure the presence of overconfidence in a person. I think that even though the OP acknowledges his overconfidence, it could still be defined by comparing his perception of himself to his actual abilities, or to the relative efficacy of his peers.

It seems often we don't really bother talking about mental dispositions until they become disruptive to our conscious intentions, such as what you mentioned; relational or professional expectations, etc. But, yes, I think that a disposition of overconfidence - an overestimation of one's capability - can exist without necessarily emerging at a disruptive level. As for the 'fake it 'til you make it' strategy, this seems like a way of growing into a new level of functionality. It could be looked at as an intelligent utilization of overconfidence, where belief that you can do better leads to an increase in skill.

Falling into pessimism because of constructive criticism seems like an extreme reaction. I think if one is reasonably emotionally healthy and mature, this shouldn't happen. But your question is how to avoid this sort of result.. I think developing a realistic concept of one's self, which doesn't rely on over-estimated expectations, would be a good way of guarding against the disappointment which can result from criticism. Cultivating an attitude which is receptive to reality and willing to adapt to it can remedy a host of psychological hang-ups.