I just think there is a certain exaggeration of risks/ overmediatisation... It seems correct to assume that anal sex or needles sharing have risks, but other sexual means
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?
There is less than ~0,05%( 1/2000 th) chance to get HIV if sex with HIV +tive person; added to that, occidental countries have a rate of more or less 0,2%( 1/500)of HIV seropositives, rates of less that 0,1% if you are heterosexual.
This means that if you want to get HIV by heterosexual intercourse in our countries you should pray very hard and:
1°have the honor to meet a Hiv+ carier, not under tritherapy(becoz if treated, chances of transmission= zero).(1/500). Most AIDS carier being males(homosexuals, drug users , don juans); heterosexual men have less chances to meet a girl with Hiv.
2°Then if you are that lucky, pray again and maybe you'll get Hiv transmission by having unsafe sex.(1/2000 chances)
3°Thus 1/2000 x 1/500=1/1000000.
This means that you have less than one chance in a million(each time) to get HIV by having unsafe/unprotected sex with a stranger from opposite sex; chances are almost inexistant if you are a man, no drugs, heterosexual and have classical sex(no anal).
So why do people get HIV though? Becoz there are several billions of unsafe sex a year... few people lack luck and earn it. Just as some lucky people win lotery.
The conclusion is that information is distorted by health policies and collective fear does the rest(as about the same with religion few centuries ago)...but again I'm not the only INTP on this forum so wanted to have some feedback and some insight about it.
WHat would a real statistician think of this simple but speaking calculation ?
The most efficient - nay - effective, means of transmission is simply via blood>blood contact. Although most blood donations are screened worldwide, a significant percentage are not screened (properly) and unfortunately many infections happen via blood transfusions.
I agree with that of course.