Theory: Normal thread vs. Exceptional threads

[QuickTwist]

Ok so before I actually talk about this I want you all to know this this was a theory born out of a hairbrained idea that I wanted to see if it was accurate or not. I don't actually have statistics for this, but it is more of a constant pattern I see on a variety of personality forums.

Right so on to the theory. The theory is that there is ~10 times the amount of views in a thread as there are replies for a normal thread. I had this idea I don't even know how long ago, but seemed to be quite a long time in analyzing threads to come to this firm conclusion. So having 10 times the amount of views as there are responses is what I would consider a "normal" thread. Obviously there is a time limit for this sort of thing. This I am not too sure of, but I would guess as long as there is a response every 12 hours this trend can hold rather accurately. Naturally the longer the thread is around without people responding the more views it will get ratio wise. So basically this is under the assumption that a thread is getting at least 1 response every 12 hours. In accordance with this, the more responses the thread gets while staying at the 10:1 ratio of views, the longer the thread will be. These are also what I would consider successful threads.

So what happens when you have an exceptional thread? Well first you have to determine if the thread is getting more or less than a 10:1 ratio.

For threads that get less than 10:1 ratio, these thread can go a few different ways. These are usually 5-8:1

1. The views eventually catch up to the amount of posts made. Generally these are threads that start off very very fast and end up being much longer than a normal thread.
2. The amount of posts starts off very fast but quickly peters out. This means that this thread is not liked by the majority of people and the initial few responses we only there to most likely criticize the OP. These thread are rather unsuccessful because while the view will catch up a bit, the views the OP has are largely rejected.
3. There is a rare exception here in these types of threads where the views do not catch up to the amount of posts for a very long time. These are very exceptional threads.
   • What happens with these is that Among the members of the forum it is a very popular idea or proposition that many people who are members of feel the need to encourage this type of thread and the success of these threads are often astronomical because by the time that the number of views catches up with the amount of posts
   • Another option of this kind of thread is that often times it has an uninspiring title for the OP, but once people find out what the topic is about it catches like wildfire.

Now lets look at the thread that have a greater than 10:1 ratio. I see 2 types of these types of threads. These are usually 12-15:1, but sometimes can be as high as 20+:1

1. These types of thread often appeal to the masses and is a novel or unique idea as a title of the thread. Members are usually not as interested in these threads so they likely don't get too many posts for them.
2. Secondly, these types of threads are a very common occurrence and either there is not a lot of material about this online or it is such a fundamental problem that many people find the thread by way of search result which brings them to that particular thread. These thread may have a lot of replies or not, but they are usually threads that are often necro'd because so many people can identify with the OP or idea or problem the OP has.

Thoughts and comments are welcomed. Lets see how this thread turns out

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

11 views (now 12) and now 1 reply. You're treading close to the dangerous 12+ ratio.

 

[QuickTwist]

11 views (now 12) and now 1 reply. You're treading close to the dangerous 12+ ratio.

I'll give it 3 days to see if it changes.

 

[Hadoblado]

More controversy = more posts.

People are more likely to post if they see something they disagree with than if they feel an idea needs encouragement.

 

[QuickTwist]

More controversy = more posts.

People are more likely to post if they see something they disagree with than if they feel an idea needs encouragement.

That's is admittedly a blind spot for me since I usually try and steer clear of drama.

 

[Bad Itch]

This is quite interesting.

It would be neat to also take into account the number of obviously pointless posts in a thread... like if I drop into the thread and reply with something useless like "This is quite interesting". This post would affect the ratio but not necessarily affect the exceptional-ness of the thread. Or would this be out of scope...

 

[QuickTwist]

This is quite interesting.

It would be neat to also take into account the number of obviously pointless posts in a thread... like if I drop into the thread and reply with something useless like "This is quite interesting". This post would affect the ratio but not necessarily affect the exceptional-ness of the thread. Or would this be out of scope...

Not necessarily out of scope, but everything is relative. If someone quotes you that makes the ratio go up even more which adds content thereby decreasing the ratio of views:replies. If a post really is not interesting, that is when no one will reply. Some of the time that is how threads die only to be necro'd later after someone else has looked past that last uninteresting post.

 

[Bad Itch]

Not necessarily out of scope, but everything is relative. If someone quotes you that makes the ratio go up even more which adds content thereby decreasing the ratio of views:replies. If a post really is not interesting, that is when no one will reply. Some of the time that is how threads die only to be necro'd later after someone else has looked past that last uninteresting post.

Ahh, yes. I'm with you.

 

[Ex-User (13503)]

*tapes down ctrl + r just to screw with the premise*

 

[QuickTwist]

*tapes down ctrl + r just to screw with the premise*

LOL, perhaps this thread will be an exception exception.

 

[Cheeseumpuffs]

*tapes down ctrl + r just to screw with the premise*

10 posts and 640+ views.

You're truly doing god's work.