The Probability of Existing

[Otherside]

Was 10*10^-12 that your parents would produce you instead of someone else.

Throw in the probability for them to have met in the first place, evolution, and every external factor for billions of years. The probability is limited at zero, implying an ever worsening probability for one to exist.

Your child's odds are that much worse than yours.

How improbable does it have to become before no one can exist?

 

[Otherside]

Are you sure I'm being illogical, Mr. Spock?

 

[Minuend]

To me it seems kinda... meaningless to talk about probability in that sense.

"I" and "you" are terms of philosophy. What exactly do "I" and "you" consist of? We have to define how great the difference has to be before "I" become a different person. Would "me" with downs be a different person?

After that definition, we have to calculate how many different combinations can be produced (neurons, hormones etc). Then we would have to move back to the dawn of man and calculate odds of choosing that exact partner. Perhaps the chance of survival of every ancestor.

And we would probably have to include the probability of humans surviving, the earth surviving.

And there's probably vast more factors that I can't think of right now.

The odds are almost infinite.

In addition, persons are something that don't exist before they grow concious (or so). There were no other persons in line with me, only different cells.

 

[Otherside]

And we would probably have to include the probability of humans surviving, the earth surviving.

That's it. "Poof".

 

[GYX_Kid]

what about the probability of your post's validity existing

 

[Akuma]

This is quite something...

Was 10*10^-12 that your parents would produce you instead of someone else.

If "I" was not born, then another "I" would be born in my place.

Throw in the probability for them to have met in the first place, evolution, and every external factor for billions of years. The probability is limited at zero, implying an ever worsening probability for one to exist.

Not all "probability" keep a record of history. This is the same line of thought as a gambler, thinking you're more likely to win after 1000 turns when the probability will always remain the same.

Not saying you're wrong but human brains aren't very good with comprehension of probability in the first place.

How improbable does it have to become before no one can exist?

I will become a cat instead.

 

[Otherside]

what about the probability of your post's validity existing

Very Poor. It's a "red herring".

 

[Melllvar]

Throw in the probability for them to have met in the first place, evolution, and every external factor for billions of years. The probability is limited at zero, implying an ever worsening probability for one to exist.

I suppose if the universe is non-deterministic (i.e. stochastic) then the odds of it's forming a particular state after some extended time would depend on the number of possible outcomes. In this case, the number of possible outcomes in which you exist over the total number of possible evolutions of the universe. Then the question is whether there are finite possible outcomes for either value (so you'd get a non-zero probability of eventually existing starting at the beginning of time) or whether there are infinite possible evolutions in which you exist and in which you don't exist, in which case it would probably be meaningless (unless the cardinality of the sets mattered, but idk).

I think this is basically what Dr. Manhattan was saying on Mars (in Watchmen). Finite probability of your existence from colossally high possible outcomes makes it an infinitesimally rare event. Unfortunately it suffers from anthropic bias, I mean there had to be an outcome and you're only able to ask what the probability was in the situation where you did exist. Also since you can measure your own existence and make a priori arguments for it, the probability of existing now is obviously 1.

 

[BigApplePi]

Hindsight is 20/20 Otherside. Too late for you not to exist. (You should have thought of that ahead of time before you went ahead.) On the other hand if you want to specify the creation of another human being, give me the specs and I'll bet you the odds of that one being created by chance are very very low.

 

[BigApplePi]

Melllvar I think you're onto something with that post. May I suggest you check out your theory with a double blind Multi-Universe experiment. When yer thru (we can wait), report back to us with yer findings.

 

[A22]

10*10^-12

Why didn't you use 10^-11 ?

 

[Beholder]

Why didn't you use 10^-11 ?

I was wondering the same thing

 

[Mello]

I wish I existed in a parallel universe. (This one clearly sucks.)

 

[RaBind]

May I suggest you check out your theory with a double blind Multi-Universe experiment.

Doesn't the multi-universe theory imply that you being born in at least one universe is 100% likely? So another sperm may have out raced you in another universe, meaning they also have 100% chance of being born in at least one universe.

 

[BigApplePi]

I wish I existed in a parallel universe. (This one clearly sucks.)

You MAY exist in that parallel universe. If I go look, do you want me to get you a visa? You can compare notes and shake hands with yourself, but you might suddenly vanish.