I think that reasoning would work for the case with only 1 circular path, but here he might go the 2nd path n times, then 3rd path m times, then the 2nd path some times again and so on.
In any case, 15.5 is not correct
Still couldn't figure out why my first intuition was/is or even could be wrong.
Since I think the law of total expectation can be used with my initial approach, I'm gonna stick to it.
The two hours magically get added to the total time after the main experiment is over.
I only look at the expected time it takes the guy to pass all the circular paths he takes until he selects the home path.
Random Variables:
X := number of hours it takes the guy to get home -2
Y := number of times he gets back to the same spot again, excluding the initial situation ( y can be 0)
Events:
Ai := y = i
for large/infinite n:
In any event Ai, P[home path is chosen] is 1 at the (i+1). path selection and 0 before that.
=> At any selection before the (i+1). one, P[4h patch] = P[5h path] = 0.5
In the event A0, E[X] = 0.
In the case of A1, E[X] = 0.5 * 4h + 0.5 * 5h = 4.5h
Since any two coin tosses/path selections are independent, every coin toss just adds its own expected result to the total expectancy.
E[Ai] + 4,5h = E[Ai+1]
According to Wikipedia, a geometric series like the one described by this sum converges like this
=>
Which is... completely impossible. I don't believe this.
Anyways, the solution would be 6.5 hours then.
Edit: Let's try one more time.
A0 := 2h path gets taken at the first try
A1 := 4h path gets taken at the first try
A2 := 5h path gets taken at the first try
E[X] = 1/3 * 2h + 1/3 * (4h + E[X]) + 1/3 * (5h + E[X])
E[X] = 1/3 * (11h + 2* E[X])
E[X] = 11h/3 + 2/3 E[X]
1/3 * E[X] = 11h/3
E[X] = 11h
That's... interesting. Now I'm wrong in at least two ways.
I'll give this more thought some other time.
Edit2: I noticed an error in the first solution while dozing off.
I failed to actually make E[X|Ai] dependent on Ai and just put a constant 4.5h. Whoops.
But I'm too tired to correct that now. Might do that later.