How long before humanity goes extinct....

[ZenRaiden]

I was thinking about this, and I think it will be 10 000 years.
Reasons, because we currently don't have anything threatening us, other than our own technology, but I think we will actually get to a point where our technology will be our undoing.
We already have capacity to make AI, we already have bio-engineered viruses and bacteria.
We have a tendency to Chernobyl things.
We have nukes, but I think they are so dangerous and frightening that humans will never use them.
We have climate change possibly deadly.
We have zero clue what the Earth crust will do, might explode on us.
We are type of creatures that during evolution have a tendency to die out, see... all monkeys and our ancestors.. who died out.
I don't actually think our big brains are as big asset as we think.
As Woody Allen said, - Brain is the most overrated organ.

 

[dr froyd]

we have to keep in mind it's only been something like 60 years since the nuclear bomb was developed. And already there's been a series of scares and threats. If there's a 0.1% chance of a nuclear exchange every year, on a 1000 year horizon that's about a 63% chance it will happen at some point.

and of course, we've seen what our beloved leaders have learned about using diplomacy to solve problems in the nuclear age; nothing. Humans remain apes – the only difference is that the new ape has replaced the bow and arrow with intercontinental missiles.

in terms of pandemics, although humanity has dealt with it many times, we've seldomly dealt with it in an age where anyone can reach any place on the globe within 24 hours. From a transmission point of view, the entire globe is just one town.

and then there's all the other stuff; meteorites, climate change, etc. On top of that there's all the unknown unknowns: e.g. what sort of weapons will humans develop in the future, it might be something even more powerful than hydrogen bombs.

my verdict: 1000 years. Get your kicks while you can.

 

[Cognisant]

Of we do get wiped out it'll be by something we didn't see coming, like a continent sized super-volcano completely fucking up the ecosphere. We simply do not have the infrastructure necessary to maintain a viable population in an underground shelter for hundreds of thousands of years. We don't even have the technology necessary to create such infrastructure.

 

[Thurlor]

If humanity manages to colonise other worlds I don't believe it will ever become extinct. Though wait long enough and the descendants won't be human (though I'm not sure that counts).

If humanity remains stuck on Earth then I think it would require a truly global cataclsym of some sort to completely eradicate the species. Our societies won't last but the species will.

I've never understood why everyone goes on about nuclear winters. AFAIK there aren't enough nuclear weapons on Earth to cause one.

 

[dr froyd]

I've never understood why everyone goes on about nuclear winters. AFAIK there aren't enough nuclear weapons on Earth to cause one.

ive seen research that suggests this is less likely than once thought

still though, there's an irony to me in how any theoretical suggestion of persistent global warming automatically results in talk about imminent extinction of humanity, whereas when it comes to nuclear war it's like: no worries, it will probably not even cause a nuclear winter!

both have terrible consequences if one underestimates their effects, but one is slow, predictable and gradual, the other is unpredictable, rapid, and violent

 

[ZenRaiden]

When it comes to nukes, I kind of hope we aren't using them, but if we are that kind of species, then we definitely need to go extinct.

As individuals we kind of range from stupid to smart, but as whole collective we are kind of smart overall. I mean minus the crappy wars.