Ebola outbreak

[freebaser]

Predict Ebola deaths by, say July 2015. People near the infection sights are terrified. They want to escape. That means even with quarantine some will be carriers. 10 thousand? 100,000? 1000000?

 

[Rook]

19000.

 

[Ex-User (9086)]

infection sights

Are they sightseeing the infection sites?

Very low, Ebola is easy to quarantine, only direct contact transmission, compared to other deadly viruses.

I mean, why not give an order to shoot every escaping vector? They will most likely die and cause deaths anyway.
They could enforce some kind of confinement for escaping if people can't be reasonable.

 

[Perfectly Normal Beast]

start hoarding gold. save yourselves!!

 

[Ex-User (9086)]

start hoarding gold. save yourselves!!

I am afraid to admit that these people need religion right now to keep them orderly.

 

[Rook]

Many East-African customs involve being in contact with the body before burial.
Traditions like these create oppurtune chances for ebola, as many people hold to their traditions above all else.
Even death.

 

[Ex-User (9086)]

Many East-African customs involve being in contact with the body before burial.
Traditions like these create oppurtune chances for ebola, as many people hold to their traditions above all else.
Even death.

This is a beautiful tradition, but holding to that sentiment will ultimately destroy the people that follow it. At least they do what they find important, while others evolve to adjust.

In Liberia, a mob attacked an Ebola isolation centre stealing equipment and "freeing" patients while shouting, "There's no Ebola."[138] Red Cross staff was forced to suspend operations in southeast Guinea after they were threatened by a group of men armed with knives.[139] In the village of Wome in Guinea, at least eight aid-workers were murdered by suspicious villagers with machetes and their bodies dumped in a latrine on September 18.[140]

Very low, Ebola is easy to quarantine, only direct contact transmission, compared to other deadly viruses.

I take that back, this is dire...
Very low social awarness and trust.

 

[Pyropyro]

Probably less than a thousand if the African governments played their cards right (ie. better health services, education etc.)

As Blarraun said, the disease is easily to identify and stop. I doubt if a carrier can actually spread the disease that fast. It's the lack of knowledge and proper medical practices that cause the disease to spread easily.

 

[Pyropyro]

I take that back, this is dire...
Very low social awarness and trust.

Yup, the real problem are the potential hosts not the virus itself. This is why governments shouldn't skimp on funding education.

 

[freebaser]

Very low, Ebola is easy to quarantine, only direct contact transmission, compared to other deadly viruses.

Seems like Ebola is very similar to HIV/AIDS. It can be detected with a blood test and has spread all over the world. What can stop Ebola then?

 

[Ex-User (9086)]

Seems like Ebola is very similar to HIV/AIDS. It can be detected with a blood test and has spread all over the world. What can stop Ebola then?

There are similarities in how they transmit, however the symptoms they cause are different and ebola hasn't spread all over the world.

For ebola to spread people would have to not only have sexual intercourse, or contact with fluids such as blood or large quantities of saliva, but also manage to live long enough to travel a distance, usually to escape quarantine to transmit the virus away from the site. People usually die or recover before this happens, which is unlike HIV where people live full, or very short and handicapped lives and never recover.

Education helps keep the HIV under control in developed countries, whereas Ebola is currently spreading in the same conditions that allowed HIV to claim Africa as the continent with highest HIV population percentage.

A good quarantine is enough to stop ebola, which would mean life imprisonment for HIV vectors.

 

[Absurdity]

Probably less than a thousand if the African governments played their cards right (ie. better health services, education etc.)

Less than a thousand more or less than a thousand total?

If you meant the latter, then I have bad news.

 

[Pyropyro]

Less than a thousand more or less than a thousand total?

If you meant the latter, then I have bad news.

This is quite sad. The disease is avoidable but lack of logistics and resources has caused a lot of people to fall to it.

 

[freebaser]

As Blarraun said, the disease is easily to identify and stop. I doubt if a carrier can actually spread the disease that fast.

I don't think an infected person is readily identifiable during the incubation period which is three weeks. What I'm wondering is that such quarantined persons will be grouped together. Possibly a person ready to leave quarantine could have been contaminated by someone else under quarantine. Then they are out.

Another thing is all this assumes control by authorities. That's important because should one infected person out of thousands reach one of those war torn areas in Africa, all bets are off. The larger the number of infected people, the greater chance to lose control.

It's the lack of knowledge and proper medical practices that cause the disease to spread easily.

What is needed is an Ebola vaccine better than what they have now.

 

[Pyropyro]

I don't think an infected person is readily identifiable during the incubation period which is three weeks. What I'm wondering is that such quarantined persons will be grouped together. Possibly a person ready to leave quarantine could have been contaminated by someone else under quarantine. Then they are out.

Another thing is all this assumes control by authorities. That's important because should one infected person out of thousands reach one of those war torn areas in Africa, all bets are off. The larger the number of infected people, the greater chance to lose control.

The incubation phase relatively short IMO so you'll get symptoms ASAP. I also doubt people leaking blood in every orifice moving very far.

What is needed is an Ebola vaccine better than what they have now.

We don't have a vaccine. The good news is that we already have the viruses' genetic sequences. It won't be long until we can cook up a DNA vaccine.

 

[freebaser]

The incubation phase relatively short IMO so you'll get symptoms ASAP. I also doubt people leaking blood in every orifice moving very far.

The incubation period, that is, the time interval from infection with the virus to onset of symptoms is 2 to 21 days. Humans are not infectious until they develop symptoms. First symptoms are the sudden onset of fever fatigue, muscle pain, headache and sore throat.
https://www.google.com/search?q=ebo...ahoo:en-US:official&client=firefox&channel=sb

We don't have a vaccine. The good news is that we already have the viruses' genetic sequences. It won't be long until we can cook up a DNA vaccine.

ZMapp, being developed by Mapp Biopharmaceutical Inc., is an experimental treatment, for use with individuals infected with Ebola virus. It has not yet been tested in humans for safety or effectiveness. The product is a combination of three different monoclonal antibodies that bind to the protein of the Ebola virus.
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/guinea/qa-experimental-treatments.html

 

[Pyropyro]

The incubation period, that is, the time interval from infection with the virus to onset of symptoms is 2 to 21 days. Humans are not infectious until they develop symptoms. First symptoms are the sudden onset of fever fatigue, muscle pain, headache and sore throat.
https://www.google.com/search?q=ebo...ahoo:en-US:official&client=firefox&channel=sb

Yep, short. It's actually 8 to 10 on average and you're also not infectious during said incubation phase. Besides, your going to be bleeding alot when you do start become infectious so you're not going anywhere.

ZMapp, being developed by Mapp Biopharmaceutical Inc., is an experimental treatment, for use with individuals infected with Ebola virus. It has not yet been tested in humans for safety or effectiveness. The product is a combination of three different monoclonal antibodies that bind to the protein of the Ebola virus.
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/guinea/qa-experimental-treatments.html

Yep, no vaccines yet. The key phrase is "It has not yet been tested in humans for safety or effectiveness". They're going for Phase 1 Clinical trials though but it'll take years before this hits the market.

 

[Vrecknidj]

Very current update:

Case Counts*

*Case counts updated in conjunction with the World Health Organization updates and are based on information reported by the Ministries of Health.

Total Cases

As of September 21, 2014
(Updated September 25, 2014)

Total Case Count: 6263
Total Deaths: 2917
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 3487
Cases by Country

Guinea
Total Case Count: 1022
Total Deaths: 635
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 832
Liberia

Total Case Count: 3280
Total Deaths: 1677
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 890

Nigeria
Total Case Count: 20
Total Case Deaths: 8
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 19

Senegal
Total Case Count: 1
Total Case Deaths: 0
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 1

Sierra Leone
Total Case Count: 1940
Total Case Deaths: 597
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 1745

 

[Vrecknidj]

Summary
This week’s MMWR, Estimating the Future Number of Cases in the Ebola Epidemic—Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014–2015, estimates the future number of cases if current trends continue. The MMWR also adjusts the number of cases based on estimated underreported cases.

By September 30, 2014, CDC estimates that there will be approximately 8,000 cases, or as high as 21,000 cases if corrections for underreporting are made.
Without additional interventions or changes in community behavior, CDC estimates that by January 20, 2015, there will be a total of approximately 550,000 Ebola cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone or 1.4 million if corrections for underreporting are made.
Cases in Liberia are currently doubling every 15-20 days, and those in Sierra Leone and Guinea are doubling every 30-40 days.
Halting the epidemic requires that approximately 70% of Ebola cases be cared for in Ebola Treatment Units or, if they are at capacity, at home or in a community setting in which there is a reduced risk of disease transmission and safe burials are provided.
Key Messages
If conditions remain unchanged, the situation will rapidly become much worse.
We know how to control and eventually stop the epidemic. Halting the epidemic requires placing up to 70% of patients into either an Ebola Treatment Unit or in a community setting in which the risk of disease transmission is reduced and safe burials are provided.
The cost of delay will be devastating. The number of cases is doubling about every 20 days. Every month of delay in reaching the 70% target will increase the number of patients, which means more cases and more deaths and the need for even more beds and other resources.

 

[Absurdity]

First confirmed US case of ebola.

 

[Cognisant]

To get infected I'd have to come in contact with a carrier's bodily fluids.

So as I understand it this disease primarily affects religious and socially extroverted people.

Never thought I'd say this but way to go Mother Nature

 

[crippli]

To get infected I'd have to come in contact with a carrier's bodily fluids.

So as I understand it this disease primarily affects religious and socially extroverted people.

Never thought I'd say this but way to go Mother Nature

It seems a surviving carrier can infect two months post infection point through semen. So I doubt introverts will be spared.

 

[Deleted member 1424]

It seems a surviving carrier can infect two months post infection point through semen. So I doubt introverts will be spared.

Only introverted lesbians will survive.

 

[crippli]

Only introverted lesbians will survive.

An introverted lesbian society is not here yet.

The mortality rate is around 50%. So even if the whole population gets infected, half will survive. This is still a lot of people pr sq mi compared to where I live.

 

[Pyropyro]

Only introverted lesbians will survive.

You can still get it from saliva and other ahem... feminine fluids.

 

[Pyropyro]

First confirmed US case of ebola.

Interesting. Had the thing been airborne then the US would really have a problem. I wonder if it could survive without its natural reservoir though. It kills its human host way too fast and way too obvious.

 

[Absurdity]

Interesting. Had the thing been airborne then the US would really have a problem. I wonder if it could survive without its natural reservoir though. It kills its human host way too fast and way too obvious.

Yeah. I don't even think that one "counts" either, since it was a Liberian guy who had just flown back from Liberia two days before checking into the hospital.

 

[TheManBeyond]

spain first non african country to get ebola, hurray, we're fucked.

 

[Jennywocky]

Predict Ebola deaths by, say July 2015. People near the infection sights are terrified. They want to escape. That means even with quarantine some will be carriers. 10 thousand? 100,000? 1000000?

I'm thinking now it's a conspiracy by Texan Republicans to scare away all the Mexican illegal immigrants.

 

[Jennywocky]

Interesting. Had the thing been airborne then the US would really have a problem. I wonder if it could survive without its natural reservoir though. It kills its human host way too fast and way too obvious.

Well, it's not an airborne host -- it's passed through body fluids. It also incubates for a long time; only when the host is showing obvious symptoms are they actually also contagious. So that is all true.

One problem is, how do we recognize when someone showing the earliest symptoms (where they are contagious) has ebola, versus some other illness? And how do we get those people to immediately get themselves into quarrantine? It can be contained if you know you've been exposed / have caught it, but when you don't, then the opportunity exists to be exposed. You can get it through urine and other bodily fluid contact, and some bathrooms really aren't clean (so bathroom users or especially the cleaning staff could catch something)... or if you're in tight quarters and someone sneezes on you and you don't know that's what it is?

And yes, it can kill a host exhibiting symptoms quickly compared to other illnesses, but what does "quickly" mean? Symptoms typically appear 8-10 days after infection (although it can be anywhere from 2-21 days), but I'm having trouble finding the length of time the person is "mobile" before feeling so crappy that they aren't out traveling around. Maybe mobility in Africa is not as common, but here in the United States it's not uncommon to cover a lot of territory within one day either by car or plane or train. And if it's three weeks after a potential exposure that you begin to show symptoms, are you going to think, "Hey, this could be ebola?" and quarantine yourself?

I'm not freaking out like some, but I'm mentally a little concerned simply due to the unknowns and the population density and mobility.

 

[Cavallier]

The incubation phase relatively short IMO so you'll get symptoms ASAP. I also doubt people leaking blood in every orifice moving very far.


We don't have a vaccine. The good news is that we already have the viruses' genetic sequences. It won't be long until we can cook up a DNA vaccine.

Yeah. I don't even think that one "counts" either, since it was a Liberian guy who had just flown back from Liberia two days before checking into the hospital.

This article is the most informative and least bullshit filled piece I've read concerning what actually happened on the ground.

 

[Pyropyro]

Well, it's not an airborne host -- it's passed through body fluids. It also incubates for a long time; only when the host is showing obvious symptoms are they actually also contagious. So that is all true.

One problem is, how do we recognize when someone showing the earliest symptoms (where they are contagious) has ebola, versus some other illness? And how do we get those people to immediately get themselves into quarrantine? It can be contained if you know you've been exposed / have caught it, but when you don't, then the opportunity exists to be exposed. You can get it through urine and other bodily fluid contact, and some bathrooms really aren't clean (so bathroom users or especially the cleaning staff could catch something)... or if you're in tight quarters and someone sneezes on you and you don't know that's what it is?

It's really not that transmissible.

As for lookalikes, ebola looks like other horrible "blood leaking from your orifices" diseases like dengue and Lassa fever. This is probably why I'm a bit "meh" about it. I've been living in an area where viral hemorrhagic fevers kill lots of people annually.

The virus is relatively fragile, and can't survive that easily outside its human host. It has to hang out in its reservoir to survive before starting a new epidemic. This is also why I want the researchers to identify its reservoir ASAP, if this reservoir exists in the US then you're screwed. So for your bathroom issue, proper cleaning is probably enough to kill the virus.

And yes, it can kill a host exhibiting symptoms quickly compared to other illnesses, but what does "quickly" mean? Symptoms typically appear 8-10 days after infection (although it can be anywhere from 2-21 days), but I'm having trouble finding the length of time the person is "mobile" before feeling so crappy that they aren't out traveling around. Maybe mobility in Africa is not as common, but here in the United States it's not uncommon to cover a lot of territory within one day either by car or plane or train. And if it's three weeks after a potential exposure that you begin to show symptoms, are you going to think, "Hey, this could be ebola?" and quarantine yourself?

Your dudes at CDC are good so don't worry too much. I would be concerned if I took care of ebola patients or had sex with people that took care of ebola patients. Otherwise, I'm in the clear.

I'm not freaking out like some, but I'm mentally a little concerned simply due to the unknowns and the population density and mobility.

i'm not blaming you for that. I think it's perfectly natural to be concerned if one doesn't have enough data to work with and create a strategy.

 

[Pyropyro]

I'm thinking now it's a conspiracy by Texan Republicans to scare away all the Mexican illegal immigrants.

I thought Texas is the leading state when it comes to Ebola outbreaks

 

[EditorOne]

The danger may turn out to be an irrational reaction to ebola by policy setters because it furthers some sort of political agenda, like anti-immigration. So far it hasn't happened, but I no longer underestimate the power of ignorance, especially in the United States. If you want to stampede people down a particular road, there's nothing like fear to get them moving.

The same thing is happening with the Islamic State. We have U.S. Senators wild-eyed and making statements like we have to do something "before we are all killed.' I hold no brief for IS, but the potential for abuse of high-flying emotion is there.

 

[SilentStorm]

I just realized. If you go to any other site then it's filled with people freaking out about Ebola and if you say it's no big deal then that means you're a stupid sheep. But here everyone is keeping a level head and using logic. I love it.

But for the number of cases. I would say it depends on whether or not it reaches a lot of densely populated areas. If it doesn't it could be as low as 15,000 cases by July. If it does then it could hit well over a million.

 

[Jennywocky]

It's really not that transmissible.

As for lookalikes, ebola looks like other horrible "blood leaking from your orifices" diseases like dengue and Lassa fever. This is probably why I'm a bit "meh" about it. I've been living in an area where viral hemorrhagic fevers kill lots of people annually.

Ah, okay. And yeah, that can make a difference. I'm used to an environment where the most common diseases are the flu and the common cold. We really don't see people bleeding out here. Lots of phlegm, no real blood. So when we see it, it's a pretty freak-out experience because we don't have any experience with it.

The virus is relatively fragile, and can't survive that easily outside its human host. It has to hang out in its reservoir to survive before starting a new epidemic. This is also why I want the researchers to identify its reservoir ASAP, if this reservoir exists in the US then you're screwed. So for your bathroom issue, proper cleaning is probably enough to kill the virus.

Good to know. That helps with getting a grasp of what is a "reasonable outcome" here.

I mean, hell, as long as it's not Captain Tripps.

i'm not blaming you for that. I think it's perfectly natural to be concerned if one doesn't have enough data to work with and create a strategy.

Pretty much that's all it is. It's good to be wary and "tread lightly" if you're don't have enough data to draw conclusions, but once you get data, then you can adjust expectation.

A lot of the popular notions of Ebola also come from Robert Preston's book some years back, where they had a security breach with CDC over here in Reston (which is part of the Balt/Wash DC metro area), but as it turned out, the Reston strain only affected monkeys but not humans. Still, people were freaking out even then because of what could have happened ... and of course with all the supervirus/epidemic horror flicks (of which Walking Dead might even count, and World War Z), it's pretty much emblazoned in the public mind now.

 

[Analyzer]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYOhB6pX4ko

 

[Absurdity]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYOhB6pX4ko

http://www.theverge.com/2014/10/16/6987711/the-media-awful-job-explaining-ebola-and-clipboardman-is-proof

"Fortunately, ABC News took the time to dig up some information. As it turns out, biohazard suits aren't just hard to remove, they're also hard to see through. #ClipboardMan is the medical protocol supervisor charged with making sure that the people wearing protective gear don't accidentally trip over something, or touch a surface they shouldn't."

 

[redbaron]

I love the title, "Shocking Video".

Learn to live on the edge for a change.

 

[Analyzer]

http://www.theverge.com/2014/10/16/...ob-explaining-ebola-and-clipboardman-is-proof

"Fortunately, ABC News took the time to dig up some information. As it turns out, biohazard suits aren't just hard to remove, they're also hard to see through. #ClipboardMan is the medical protocol supervisor charged with making sure that the people wearing protective gear don't accidentally trip over something, or touch a surface they shouldn't."

Hilarious

 

[idokaiho]

0 after governments get their heads out of their rears and implement no touching laws. If caught touching another individual the criminal will be put to death. Problem solved, society is easy.

 

[SilentStorm]

This thread has been dead for a bit but I thought I'd leave an update. The body count in Liberia is dropping. In mid September there were an average of 300 deaths from Ebola each week. Currently there is about 100 a week.

 

[TheManBeyond]

that makes me happy

 

[Yellow]

Hey! Did you guys hear that joke about Ebola? Meh, you'll never get it.