Cog talks about AI, again

[Cognisant]

There's this guy called Peter Zeihan whose Youtube videos I really enjoy because he talks about politics, economics, basically everything that's going on in the world on an international scale. He's not a journalist himself, he doesn't go get the news, and he doesn't have any special access to information that isn't available to everyone else but he is a very experienced and well educated man who uses those traits to give insight on what's going on, often citing historical precedent and extrapolating upon observed trends.

Basically he's a subject matter expert regarding geopolitics and macro economics, but he only knows so much, he's only one man with only so much time to learn from academia and history and keep up with what's currently happening in the world and of that he can only observe a fraction, there's just so much happening on any given day no one can keep up with it all.

But in theory an AI could.

There's currently a concerted effort to have AI replace writers for online journalism after all most journalists these days don't actually source the news themselves, they regurgitate whatever they consume on social media. This is entirely possible for a system like Chat GPT to replicate and the most notable problem that's been encountered is people tricking the AI into writing articles based on information that isn't true. To solve this they're training AI editors, who having been trained on all news articles that currently exist, have some idea of what is real and what isn't. It's going to be a few decades until these AI editors are actually any good, but it will happen, there's no technical issue to overcome it's just a matter of getting enough data to train the model up to a sufficient level of competency.

But once it gets there we're going to have something VERY interesting, an AI that is effectively a database that can in a sense see reality and constantly update itself based on what it sees, and this database can be queried and not just for specific details like a bus timetable but also abstract things like: What talking points should I cover in my speech to improve my chances of winning the next election?

 

[Black Rose]

there's no technical issue to overcome it's just a matter of getting enough data

that is what they said about deep reinforcement learning.

something that I was well aware of since 2006

but transformer models are horse **** when it comes to above-human-level understanding.

yes, Kurzweil is right that by 2029 human level a.i. could happen as the human level would be like maybe IQ 115 as a standard journalist would require to evaluate information in current transformer models use.

but then once you get to the point where data is not enough what then?

transformers only take you so far because transformers cannot do spatial reasoning tasks. they cannot play Legend of Zelda on the Nintendo 64 for example. and definitively they cannot understand real-time video they were not trained on.

-

I suspect that a new architecture is in the mix, a spatial intelligence transformer, one where you can understand what is happening in the 3D world, and solve new problems in real time it has never seen before. training will not take hundreds and hundreds of servers in 6-month training runs. this new architecture will be like a 9-year-old with an IQ of 160 that speed reads. it will be trained in the same way a human nine-year-old would be at that level of intelligence. (actual learning)

it may take years before the public knows it exists because of "FEAR". but it will happen before 2029.

And journalism will not be the job it is trained for.

 

[Cognisant]

I'm not talking about depth but rather breadth of understanding, the AI doesn't need to possess superhuman intelligence, heck it doesn't even need human level intelligence, all it needs is enough memory and processing power to consume information on a scale no human could hope to match.

A lot of what modern intelligence agencies do is data analysis, actually getting the data has become fairly trivial as everyone's carrying around a tracking device and wire tap these days and posting their mental/emotional state on social media. The real challenge is finding that needle in the haystack, the potential terrorist, the foreign state actor, the startup about to release a disruptive new technology. Intelligence agencies used to work hard to acquire information, now they're drowning in it, unable to find the important stuff in a roiling ocean of trivial nonsense.

But an AI can, an AI can read everything and turn it into a useful database that can be searched and filtered and queried and that ability to access only the information you need is so very powerful, it's like finding the needle in the haystack with a massive electromagnet.

 

[Black Rose]

That is simply a predictive correlation problem.

So we know maybe 10,000 things about each person.

And each thing is 10,000 bits of data compressed.

Then we multiply the correlations with 10,000 other people.

That is a trillion calculations.

What do we get?

A model of every possible thing you could do within the next 10 days based on a profile and a simulation of data you will interact with.

Given GPUs can do 1,000 trillion calculations today and 8 billion people exist we can say the simulation requires a supercomputer the size of 10,000,000 GPUs = 10 days in 1 second. or 10,000 GPUs for 10 days prediction of one person in 1 hour of computing time for the whole planet.

That is just with data analytics that has been known since 2009.

But then add the A.I. and you get much much more.

 

[sushi]

I'm not talking about depth but rather breadth of understanding, the AI doesn't need to possess superhuman intelligence, heck it doesn't even need human level intelligence, all it needs is enough memory and processing power to consume information on a scale no human could hope to match.

A lot of what modern intelligence agencies do is data analysis, actually getting the data has become fairly trivial as everyone's carrying around a tracking device and wire tap these days and posting their mental/emotional state on social media. The real challenge is finding that needle in the haystack, the potential terrorist, the foreign state actor, the startup about to release a disruptive new technology. Intelligence agencies used to work hard to acquire information, now they're drowning in it, unable to find the important stuff in a roiling ocean of trivial nonsense.

But an AI can, an AI can read everything and turn it into a useful database that can be searched and filtered and queried and that ability to access only the information you need is so very powerful, it's like finding the needle in the haystack with a massive electromagnet.

we are already fucked when that happens, its half skynet already.

 

[scorpiomover]

there's no technical issue to overcome it's just a matter of getting enough data to train the model up to a sufficient level of competency.

and this database can be queried and not just for specific details like a bus timetable but also abstract things like: What talking points should I cover in my speech to improve my chances of winning the next election?

Sounds like you're talking about the type of AI where the only thing holding you back from getting all your human-based questions answered, is a lack of data.

A lot of what modern intelligence agencies do is data analysis, actually getting the data has become fairly trivial as everyone's carrying around a tracking device and wire tap these days and posting their mental/emotional state on social media. The real challenge is finding that needle in the haystack, the potential terrorist, the foreign state actor, the startup about to release a disruptive new technology. Intelligence agencies used to work hard to acquire information, now they're drowning in it, unable to find the important stuff in a roiling ocean of trivial nonsense.

Sounds like you're talking about a situation where the only thing holding you back, is TMI (too much information), a lack of lack of data, i.e. the exact opposite of the design of AI you have.

So you have plenty of data. But you have little that can make sense of it. Wouldn't it be great if you had an AI that would need what you have plenty of? Then you would need to do almost nothing to achieve your goals. Would be great, wouldn't it?

But an AI can, an AI can read everything and turn it into a useful database that can be searched and filtered and queried and that ability to access only the information you need is so very powerful, it's like finding the needle in the haystack with a massive electromagnet.

I appreciate that since we have plenty of data, if we had an AI that could process it all, then we'd have something very knowledgeable. However, if that was the only thing holding us back, then since we had the data over 40 years ago, we would have had all the answers from at least 10 years ago.

So either our AIs are not up to the job, or the politicians have had a super-capable AI for over 10 years, and the pandemic, and all the killings of LGBT in Syria, and the Ukraine war, and all of the last 10 years, have all been planned by your politicians.

 

[Black Rose]

politicians have had a super-capable AI

no, not them, the intelligence agencies

politicians have almost zero access to classified programs

Afghanistan happened and Ukraine happened because Trump was not reelected.

Syria happened because of Paul Bremer in 2004. (fired all Iraqi military)

pandemics have been known to happen since 1919,
and they have been "prepared for" since computers were available powerful enough to simulate them since the 1980s

 

[ZenRaiden]

Copy paste journalism with mind numbing scarce data can certainly be replaced by AI right now, and that AI would just be a copy paste script.
Most of what is called journalism in my country has zero information value, unless you are new to this world, and born yesterday.
I feel like reading news is about me looking for glaring errors in reasoning and comprehension of cause and effect.
Most of my countries news is copy pasted from other media where they make poor job of translating or reasoning out the conclusions.
Never mind the type of journalism that makes conclusions for us instead of presenting facts and making the reader to make informed conclusions for themselves.

A lot of journalists have the IQ of a doorknob and emotional maturity of a 1st grade teacher with preachy tone and life experience of a toad.
I mean I feel like I know more about the world and I just sit here in my room.
Journalist don't make me feel any smarter or more informed.
Objectively I lost interest in journalism the day I saw it.
Nowdays I feel like most journalists are just copy paste mindless monkeys.
And I don't envy their jobs.
They have to sell bullshit for a living or if they do say the truth they get booted and outed of their precious gild of idiot bots.

I feel like journalists are there to keep a glass ceiling for human intellect and make sure we don't get too smart.
Because knowledge is power. And mass media keeps that power from the masses.
WIth AI they will just do a better job of it.
They might even make you funnel all your attention to bullshit with algorithms like many sites already do.
Good luck then finding information that does not confirm your bias or better yet information that already does not present as bias conclusion so you don't :gasp: have to do the thinking.
Because wtf will we do if we bring up a society that can think for it self.


Most people cannot tolerate uncertainty.
God knows I cannot, but uncertainty pushes our minds to make conclusions.
Those conclusions though are not made on our terms, because media are constructed to create a insecurity and then make up a conclusion for us to sooth our insecurity.
This in turn leads people to feel good about the news, because every time news creates danger and anxiety and they finish of with weather to make us feel numb and feel safe, but not as safe as not to watch the news again tomorrow. So that lingering despair of insecurity and that there is not something not quite right about the world is precisely the recipe for perfect mind control.

 

[Black Rose]

knowledge is power. And mass media keeps that power from the masses.

I just saw an advertisement on a blog that showed a lady almost committing suicide because she was fat. The advertisement was for a product that could help you with weight loss. I clicked on it to see if it had any good information on how to lose weight because my neighbor has this problem and I want to help him. But then it asked me to pay money so I stopped.

Weight gain is caused by hypothyroidism. It is when you make too little hormones from the thyroid. I have had hyperthyroidism since age 12, I took growth hormones. Both problems can be solved but the doctors want to make money so they sell you synthetic hormones instead of giving you pure iodine liquid drops.

I will be getting money soon from my uncle and when I do I will buy my neighbor liquid iodine drops. And zinc picolinate or zinc glycinate.

 

[ZenRaiden]

knowledge is power. And mass media keeps that power from the masses.

I just saw an advertisement on a blog that showed a lady almost committing suicide because she was fat. The advertisement was for a product that could help you with weight loss. I clicked on it to see if it had any good information on how to lose weight because my neighbor has this problem and I want to help him. But then it asked me to pay money so I stopped.

Weight gain is caused by hypothyroidism. It is when you make too little hormones from the thyroid. I have had hyperthyroidism since age 12, I took growth hormones. Both problems can be solved but the doctors want to make money so they sell you synthetic hormones instead of giving you pure iodine liquid drops.

I will be getting money soon from my uncle and when I do I will buy my neighbor liquid iodine drops. And zinc picolinate or zinc glycinate.

Weight gain is caused by multiple factors for sure.
Even stress causes weight gain. Bad lifestyle and bad eating habits, lack of sun light etc.
Certainly whatever helps helps. It never hurts to try.
Weight loss is easy, but most people want to lose weight ASAP, without changing anything. That is where insecurities about diets come from.
The easiest way to lose fat, is slowly. That is at least the way I approach it.

 

[sushi]

probably brain machine interface is the only way to prevent AIpocalypse, or the merge between machine and brain

but then that will bring alot of ethical issues on its own.

 

[scorpiomover]

politicians have had a super-capable AI

no, not them, the intelligence agencies

They don't have good AIs, or 9/11 and Jan 6th would not have happened.

politicians have almost zero access to classified programs

And you know this for certain because you have worked in classified programs and have the full list of all people who have been granted ANY level of access to classified programs?

Afghanistan happened and Ukraine happened because Trump was not reelected.

Only in that Biden was in charge and authorised both the handover of Afghanistan and arming the Ukrainians. I'm not sure you've made a case. I'm not even sure why you said this.

pandemics have been known to happen since 1919,

Epidemics and pandemics have been happening for thousands, millions & billions of years.

and they have been "prepared for" since computers were available powerful enough to simulate them since the 1980s

Then why were they not prepared for COVID-19?

 

[Black Rose]

They don't have good AIs, or 9/11 and Jan 6th would not have happened.

You do not understand A.I.

And you think politicians are all-powerful.

Politicians are almost all puppets.

Covid was not "Planned".