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Of Cows and Men

fractalwalrus

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You're born into a dairy op. Your peers chew the cud happily. Mechanical devices pool the metabolic extracts that are the calcium laden products of the work performed by the cultures of simple-minded, single-celled organisms that inhabit their digestive organs. Maybe you happen to be a bit more observant than your peers, maybe you want to help them. "Hey guys," you shout. "Maybe it is not wise to continue this arrangement. Some of us disappear from time to time and it is the undertakings of the people that feed us that is causing this problem. They feed us, but then they take us to who knows where." Triangular, splotched-patterned faces turn your way. "The food is good. Our sisters and brothers are probably going to a better a place. Would someone who gives us so much plenty out of generosity have harm in mind for us? Exasperated, you reply, "you do not know where our brothers are being taken? Can you trust these strange beings who have put up these fences around us and take our milk from us?" Cud-chewing pauses again. Then a response: "well, they deserve that milk. They feed us, after all. Besides, you can't prove that they put the fences up. How do you know that that is not just how the world is? Those fences are part of nature. You sound like a communalist with your selfish opinions. I'm free and I could go somewhere at any time. I just choose not to. It is my own doing that I am. The food is good." Flabbergasted, you say "These people who control you could change the food at any time. They're smarter than you. You're outgunned. They can build fences, we cannot. I've observed them build the fence. Haven't you?" The interlocucow responds: "Well, fences are to keep the predators out. We'd be dead without them. There are wolves out there, after all." And then, the futility of warning the others, hits you. You study Mendelian genetics and psychology and you realize that selective breeding has played out for centuries. These cows, your peers, were created. You're the one the breeders missed.
 

Cognisant

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A hunter-gatherer requires something like 10x more land to sustain themselves, it varies a lot by region but suffice to say most plants and animals either aren’t edible or worth eating and those that are expend energy fighting for their niche. The plants and animals we commonly eat have been selectively bred to maximise productivity, natural bananas are small and have large seeds, natural everything is smaller and has less edible flesh. My point is, were we to go back to nature it either wouldn’t be natural, a genetically engineered garden of Eden, or we would need to cull billions of humans to make our population ecologically viable without the support of industrialized agriculture.

Likewise, cattle cannot survive in an actual natural environment (with wolves and such) and rolling green pastures without wolves is an artificial garden of Eden that we created, and we must maintain, even if that maintenance is merely restraining ourselves from invading it, because the cattle sure as hell can’t defend themselves from us.

But let’s suppose they can, say we introduce cattle to an island ecology that’s off limits to humans with no suitably large predators to threaten them, the cattle will quickly dominate and devastate the island’s ecology, until food is scarce and they either ruthlessly compete for resources or die out.

Congratulations in attempting to create a paradise for cattle you’ve created a cattle hell.
 

fractalwalrus

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The farm was a metaphor. As for productivity, often we tend to claim that productivity has been maximized in a manner that is a bit, myopic. As per the wikipedia article on productivity: "Productivity is the efficiency of production of goods or services expressed by some measure. Measurements of productivity are often expressed as a ratio of an aggregate output to a single input or an aggregate input used in a production process, i.e. output per unit of input, typically over a specific period of time." And herein lies the problem. Let's examine agriculture, for an example case to explore. So you produce wheat, and you have determined that you can increase wheat productivity (in terms of bushels per acre) by concentrating farmland in one area (like big AG today tends to do).

Now, prior to the use of fossil fuels, this mode of production would actually have been considered to be less efficient systemically (due to high transportation costs) when compared to dispersed, local farms with low transportation and distribution costs. Things can get a bit murky here, so let's use our input here as calories expended per bushel of wheat produced. To the farmer, the cost they personally see in terms of currency has indeed come down, but do they count the calories of energy expended through the use of fossil fuels in their equation? What if, we are actually expending more calories per bushel of wheat than we were in the Medieval period, but those calories are simply extracted from liquid and gas "batteries" if you will. Human metabolism burns calories at a fraction that combustion of fossil fuels can, because this energy is highly concentrated in fossil fuels. It would take many human hours of labor to do the equivalent work of a liter of gasoline. (the number I found is that 1 gallon of gas is close to 29,000 calories of energy). For contrast, a Medieval serf was estimated to have burned around 4,000 calories per day on the farm. So, one gallon of gas can do roughly the same amount of work (assuming perfect engineering of the products to reduce the loss of calories as heat), as about 7 serfs working full days.

Now, I could dig up a lot of information to actually figure out if we are expending more calories per bushel of wheat than in the past, but I may not need to if one considers that, not only do we need calories to be expended on the farm, we also need them to be expended on the transportation and distribution networks, as well as the fossil fuel industry, and refrigeration and storage industries to name a few accessory industries. How many calories is the system now spending on the production of one bushel of wheat vs the past? One may think it should be less if prices are low, but there are other ways of keeping prices low in the face of energy expenditure, and fossil fuel extraction is one way of doing so. Hiding overall costs in other industries is another. For example, calories end up getting spent on the healthcare industry as food become less nutritionally dense and hold pesticide residues, etc, and we consume those things as dietary staples. Yes, the hunter-gatherer needed more land to do their thing, but as far as calories expended per unit of nutrition one would be hard pressed to argue that their societies demanded as much energy use as ours to remain functional. Bear in mind I am not advocating for primitivism here, as the primitivist ultimately loses the moment someone decides not to be primitive, thereby making it a utopian system. To state what I am trying to say more simply: complexity usually requires more energy expenditure.

As for you contention about cattle not being able to survive independently, well, if that were true, they would not have been around to for us to domesticate them, for they would have gone extinct. If you are actually claiming that the survival rate of individual cattle is better with us around, well, absent human intervention, their average lifespans are from 20-25 years before dying of old age. In our modern system, they can expect to live around 5 years or so, but we do breed them, so they do persist and survive until the age of reproduction. They'll survive until the age of reproduction with human stewards, but they would still do so in concentrations that are sufficient for survival without us.

Overshoot, which is the phenomenon you speak of, can happen. Humans have even done this before (or so the evidence suggests) in certain pockets, see Easter Island, for example. Usually, when the carrying capacity of a given area is exceeded, populations can collapse, but extinction is not guaranteed so long as some hard to reach resources remain, and the renewable food sources are allowed to propagate.

And actually, if one is applying the concept of creating an island paradise for humans to humans, one would need accurate information on whether this can actually be achieved in the first place (and if so, how to do it), a moral imperative (ethical justification) or farsighted self-interest (who could ever trust a farmer (not a literal farmer), after all, and pre-emptive survival for self-interest would involve eliminating competitors and creating docile peers who represent no threat to you) to do so, and they would need a practical plan of action which would involve handling the opponents of such an action who would inevitably spring up when their personal interests are threatened by the elevating of the interests of others, and the larger system as whole. Conversely, the farmer does not need to have a single philosophical thought as a prerequisite for doing what they do (they simply only need to blindly follow their urge for growth). If one discovered the open pature to improve the life of the cattle, one would be hard pressed to convince the farmer through reason to give up some of their productivity gains in exchange for improving the wellbeing of the cattle. Psychology would also claim that humans tend to "feel" losses greater in magnitude than they "feel" gains, assuming one could actually measure the magnitude of an emotion.
 

Cognisant

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To state what I am trying to say more simply: complexity usually requires more energy expenditure.
No, calories of fuel is a nonsense metric because we cannot eat fuel, we're not robbing Peter to pay Paul we're taking an inedible energy resource and through work turning it into agricultural output.

The ultimate example of local farming is living on a homestead and although that's something I want to do, there's an unfortunate truth. In order to produce all the plants and animals I consume I would need to become a full time farmer, and that's assuming no bad harvests and nothing goes to waste.

Productivity is a measure of human hours worked vs product output. A farmer whose cash crop is carrots and has machines to plant, harvest and till the soil can produce more carrots in a month than I can in a lifetime. I can't plant 50 plants at a time every 5 seconds for hours on end.

This is why industrilized centralized farming exists, because even with the cost of transporting those carrots around the world it's still usually cheaper for me, in terms of the value of my time, to buy those carrots at a store rather than grow them myself.

Homesteading would be better if everyone was doing it and we all focused on 1-2 crops/animals and traded amongst one another, god that sounds nice dosen't it? But it would massively reduce the number of man hours available to perform other kinds of work.
 

fractalwalrus

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To state what I am trying to say more simply: complexity usually requires more energy expenditure.
No, calories of fuel is a nonsense metric because we cannot eat fuel, we're not robbing Peter to pay Paul we're taking an inedible energy resource and through work turning it into agricultural output.

The ultimate example of local farming is living on a homestead and although that's something I want to do, there's an unfortunate truth. In order to produce all the plants and animals I consume I would need to become a full time farmer, and that's assuming no bad harvests and nothing goes to waste.

Productivity is a measure of human hours worked vs product output. A farmer whose cash crop is carrots and has machines to plant, harvest and till the soil can produce more carrots in a month than I can in a lifetime. I can't plant 50 plants at a time every 5 seconds for hours on end.

This is why industrilized centralized farming exists, because even with the cost of transporting those carrots around the world it's still usually cheaper for me, in terms of the value of my time, to buy those carrots at a store rather than grow them myself.

Homesteading would be better if everyone was doing it and we all focused on 1-2 crops/animals and traded amongst one another, god that sounds nice dosen't it? But it would massively reduce the number of man hours available to perform other kinds of work.
One of the earlier points that you brought up may not have been entirely accurate, and I only speak of this because I have some experience with edible plants. In short, there are a lot of edible plant varieties out there, and there are a lot of them that are palatable. This being said, there are not a lot of plants that are as productive or as easy to mass produce as grains and the various other plants we choose to grow on a massive scale. Now, this being said, there is also generally more nutritional value in plants that have not been mass produced (lots of research on this) in part, due to the fact that we are poor at replicating the processes that gave them nutritional variety in the first place, since this is not a trait that growers factor in to their selection process. They want what the masses want, since that is what sells. When the masses are not educated (or the knowledge just wasn't available, period) or the masses are not wealthy enough to afford the more expensive, more nutritious varieties of plants, then they will sell things that look and taste good, not necessarily things that are nutritionally diverse.

I could use joules of fuel, if you would prefer. Whether or not it is humans expending the energy required to get edible energy in the convenient packaging of wheat kernels, or fossil fuels providing the energy to get the work done, the work is still being done. Fossil fuels, after all, are the remains of long dead once-living things. Those things ate other things and then died and decayed into goop. Are you sure it is a nonsense metric when one is actually trying to calculate the total energy (in terms of physics) that it takes to turn the inedible (nutrients in the soil, sunlight, etc) into the edible? If it was not fossil fuels performing the labor, it would be draft animals or humans. One could still look at the energy humans put into getting energy out of what they need, after all. Human metabolism is an energetic process. We need so many calories a day just to stay warm, and more than the baseline if we want to do labor-intensive tasks. If one did not recover this energy from the crops that they planted and harvested, they would slowly die of starvation. Energy return on investment does matter when one wants to calculate how long a system can be sustained for, which would determine if it needs to be altered in favor of something else.

If you want to homestead with relatively little effort, look into Permaculture, which originated in your country. The basic principle is to create a mini-ecosystem that recycles itself with as little human labor input as possible. There's a lot of non-human energy out there (the sun, wind, etc). One of the practices we engage in that is counter-intuitive is the crowding together of cattle in their feces so that they catch disease. Rather than change the conditions, we load them up with antibiotics. Now, without making any moral claims about this practice, it seems that we tend to create one problem and then solve it with a solution that itself then needs to be solved with some other development. Why use pesticides when there are available species that one can introduce to keep undesirable pests away? Why use weed killers when one can simply grow cover crops to keep them at bay? Anyways, when you look into it, you may be surprised how inefficiently we do things, sometimes.

We aren't actually at odds here, by the way. I think that my argument was not framed in a way that allowed for me to properly convey it to you. Basically, what I am saying, is that fossil fuels have distorted the cost of doing things because of their energy return on investment ratio. If we did not have them, or the solar or nuclear power, transportation costs would be astronomical compared to what they are now. That still would not change the fact that Physics has a formula which is used to calculate the energy required to get one heavy thing to another place that is far away. Yes it may be "cheaper" to do things the way you described, but I would argue that cost is not always tied to efficiency.
 

Cognisant

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There is an inherent energy cost to moving anything anywhere, but the efficiency gained by decentralized farming is immediately lost in dozens of ways, every farm needs fences, every farm needs irrigation equipment, every farm needs fertilizer and instead of being delivered to one location by the truckload it’s being distributed to a hundred locations in little bags which become waste. Every farmer needs gloves and boots and tools, every homestead is doing their own produce washing and preservation which consequently uses more water and energy.

Basically, you’re missing out on efficiencies of scale, not to mention that a lot of plants and animals are inherently regional, perhaps you can get around this with greenhouses and special enclosures but that adds even more expense.

There is a theoretical ideal where decentralized agriculture is more efficient but that’s far above our current level of technology, I’m talking about genetically engineered fruit that hangs ripe and fresh on the tree until picked, farm animals that tend to each other’s needs and walk into an automatic butchering machine when fully grown, a farm which is basically the garden of Eden, where everything exists solely to serve your needs and requires nothing in return.
 

fractalwalrus

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There is an inherent energy cost to moving anything anywhere, but the efficiency gained by decentralized farming is immediately lost in dozens of ways, every farm needs fences, every farm needs irrigation equipment, every farm needs fertilizer and instead of being delivered to one location by the truckload it’s being distributed to a hundred locations in little bags which become waste. Every farmer needs gloves and boots and tools, every homestead is doing their own produce washing and preservation which consequently uses more water and energy.

Basically, you’re missing out on efficiencies of scale, not to mention that a lot of plants and animals are inherently regional, perhaps you can get around this with greenhouses and special enclosures but that adds even more expense.

There is a theoretical ideal where decentralized agriculture is more efficient but that’s far above our current level of technology, I’m talking about genetically engineered fruit that hangs ripe and fresh on the tree until picked, farm animals that tend to each other’s needs and walk into an automatic butchering machine when fully grown, a farm which is basically the garden of Eden, where everything exists solely to serve your needs and requires nothing in return.
Ok, I'll pose a question, then. Do you think that we would be able to maintain the current farming model without cars, trains, modern ships, or planes? There is also this related phenomenon: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox. Can a system be said to be efficient if its efficiency actually results in an increased use of resources?
 

Cognisant

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Do you think that we would be able to maintain the current farming model without cars, trains, modern ships, or planes?
Without engines we cannot turn chemical energy into work, this would force us to be extremely efficient just survive, by "efficient" I mean the elderly and the lame are put to death, because if you cannot work, you are an extra mouth to feed, one that we cannot afford.

Sure maybe if we Thanos'ed the population twice (down to one quarter of what it is now) we might be able to go back to how things worked in the pre-industrial era without being quite so draconian.

Can a system be said to be efficient if its efficiency actually results in an increased use of resources?
I'm not sure you understand what "efficient" means.
 

LOGICZOMBIE

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You're born into a dairy op. Your peers chew the cud happily. Mechanical devices pool the metabolic extracts that are the calcium laden products of the work performed by the cultures of simple-minded, single-celled organisms that inhabit their digestive organs. Maybe you happen to be a bit more observant than your peers, maybe you want to help them. "Hey guys," you shout. "Maybe it is not wise to continue this arrangement. Some of us disappear from time to time and it is the undertakings of the people that feed us that is causing this problem. They feed us, but then they take us to who knows where." Triangular, splotched-patterned faces turn your way. "The food is good. Our sisters and brothers are probably going to a better a place. Would someone who gives us so much plenty out of generosity have harm in mind for us? Exasperated, you reply, "you do not know where our brothers are being taken? Can you trust these strange beings who have put up these fences around us and take our milk from us?" Cud-chewing pauses again. Then a response: "well, they deserve that milk. They feed us, after all. Besides, you can't prove that they put the fences up. How do you know that that is not just how the world is? Those fences are part of nature. You sound like a communalist with your selfish opinions. I'm free and I could go somewhere at any time. I just choose not to. It is my own doing that I am. The food is good." Flabbergasted, you say "These people who control you could change the food at any time. They're smarter than you. You're outgunned. They can build fences, we cannot. I've observed them build the fence. Haven't you?" The interlocucow responds: "Well, fences are to keep the predators out. We'd be dead without them. There are wolves out there, after all." And then, the futility of warning the others, hits you. You study Mendelian genetics and psychology and you realize that selective breeding has played out for centuries. These cows, your peers, were created. You're the one the breeders missed.

impressive
 

fractalwalrus

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Without engines we cannot turn chemical energy into work
Precisely. The question I am asking is if the actual energy that is expended to achieve the food yields we have now by the metric of Joules or Calories, or whatever unit we wish to use is higher now than in the past? It may not be humans performing this "work" but the energy expenditure still occurs, would you not agree? It may be a different set of chemicals releasing the energy now (hydrocarbons) vs before, but energy is still being expended unless my understanding of physics is sorely lacking.

Sure maybe if we Thanos'ed the population twice

I would not advocate for this, but it may occur due to "overgrazing" if we do not change trajectories. Absent some miracle technological intervention, what will we do to maintain our current levels of systemic inefficiency? Don't believe the system is inefficient? Well, the whole point I have been trying to make is what I said earlier: efficiency tends to be measured by looking at a component of a system in isolation from the whole. How is our system "inefficient?" Well, if one uses the metric of resource allocation and return on investment when it comes to the production of human wellbeing and happiness, we are horribly inefficient at this, see here: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/money-happiness-study-daniel-kahneman-500000-versus-75000/. If giving people more than $500,000 a year comes with diminishing returns, how could one argue it to be efficient?

It is entirely possible that I do not understand the term "efficiency." So, I will offer this definition, or invite you to define it. If you trust the wikipedia definition: "Efficiency is the often measurable ability to avoid making mistakes or wasting materials, energy, efforts, money, and time while performing a task"

So, using the wikipedia definition, then if human happiness and wellbeing or even survival is the goal of economic system, and this has been achieved in the past in some societies with far fewer material goods, then this would imply that the very goal of growing the economy is a less efficient model of producing this end goal since it involves pouring more inputs in to get the same output.
 

LOGICZOMBIE

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So, using the wikipedia definition, then if human happiness and wellbeing or even survival is the goal of economic system, and this has been achieved in the past in some societies with far fewer material goods, then this would imply that the very goal of growing the economy is a less efficient model of producing this end goal since it involves pouring more inputs in to get the same output.

the only goal of the current economic model is

THIS
 

Cognisant

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Precisely. The question I am asking is if the actual energy that is expended to achieve the food yields we have now by the metric of Joules or Calories, or whatever unit we wish to use is higher now than in the past? It may not be humans performing this "work" but the energy expenditure still occurs, would you not agree? It may be a different set of chemicals releasing the energy now (hydrocarbons) vs before, but energy is still being expended unless my understanding of physics is sorely lacking.
Per unit of food industrial farming and shipping it around the world uses less energy per unit of food than pre-industrial farming.

This is due to a combination of machine efficiency compared to the human body and effencies of scale. A cargo ship uses a lot of fuel but it also carries a lot of cargo and per unit of cargo the amount of fuel used is tiny. Weirdly enough trucking produce a few kilometers to a port is more energy intensive per unit of cargo than shipping it to a port on the other side of the world, because cargo ships are just that absurdly efficient.

I would not advocate for this, but it may occur due to "overgrazing" if we do not change trajectories. Absent some miracle technological intervention, what will we do to maintain our current levels of systemic inefficiency? Don't believe the system is inefficient?
Ok so you're not talking about efficiency here, you're talking about sustainability and yes a system that relies upon a finite chemical energy source is unsustainable. I think we can transition to another energy sourcr, and should, but for now oil is relatively abundant so there's little incentive to do so.

So, using the wikipedia definition, then if human happiness and wellbeing or even survival is the goal of economic system, and this has been achieved in the past in some societies with far fewer material goods, then this would imply that the very goal of growing the economy is a less efficient model of producing this end goal since it involves pouring more inputs in to get the same output.
The problem is that inequality is higher now than it has ever been, there's really no reason why anyone in a developed country should be struggling to survive in this era.
 

fractalwalrus

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Per unit of food industrial farming and shipping it around the world uses less energy per unit of food than pre-industrial farming.
I'll have to take some time get some exact figures, as I am going off of mental estimates here, to see if this is correct. The initial data I scoured did not offer what I was looking for to either prove or disprove what I was arguing.

I think we can transition to another energy sourcr, and should, but for now oil is relatively abundant so there's little incentive to do so.
Yeah, I think what you are ultimately arguing, is that it is less energetically expensive to dig up stored energy and use it to centralize farming and fuel a slew of other industries (fossil fuels, transportation, etc), than it would be to have all farms local and utilize more human labor. If transportation costs are lower than labor costs (ie having people haul goods) then it does seem more efficient to do this, but I would bet that a truck tends to spend more energy (when measuring calories) simply by idling or performing the same task as a human would (carrying heavy things). It may balance out at some load weight, or distance, but I would need figures to prove this.

he problem is that inequality is higher now than it has ever been, there's really no reason why anyone in a developed country should be struggling to survive in this era.
And I do not see our popular figures acting to fix this. They cannot bite the hand that feeds them.
 
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