malthus vs AI

[sushi]

people say the age of AI utopia and abundance is coming.

like all utopian myths and dreams it seems feasible until the demon of malthus starts coming to haunt and break the myth.

population grows exponentially but production does not.

so ai and robot production cannot meet every demand of an exponentially growing population

then we are back at square 1, people doing shit jobs that should be obsolete and replaced by robots.

 

[Hadoblado]

Who is saying this?

Mostly I hear about how AI is going wrong (like this thread). The pro-AI people I talk to tend to appreciate the memes or what it can do for them personally, but I don't hear anyone talking about an age of utopia and abundance anymore.

Also population growth is slowing or reversing in a large chunk of the world.

 

[fluffy]

I think the consumer market is doing quite well in giving the general public new products.

When I have money I seem to be able to get better quality items.

 

[Puffy]

In general I’d say that current AI technology is overhyped as people overestimate what it is capable of out of not understanding the technology or how it works. Of course we should expect more developments as the century unfolds however.

 

[fluffy]

I mean

If you ask the average person to build a petaflop computer by themselves.

They would need to know how ultraviolet wafers work and also how to stabilize against earth shaking. And transistors and diodes.

That's not to say petaflop computing is overhyped because it does exist.

That is to say only a few people can make the technology and that is why it is not distributed to all the people.

An average person is not a millionaire.

The average person cannot be trusted with human level a.i. not because it doesn't exist but because they don't understand it.

We don't give mass weapons to average people because they don't need them.

But again you cannot say it doesn't exist is like saying we don't have exaflop computers.

We do but in labs. Can average people understand how brains work? Not without education and then you need huge amounts of teachers that don't exist.

Can average people program petaflop computers, no. But some labs can.

Do all people have plasma 8k TV's

Can they build one in the basement.

No

Not everyone can afford a space station either, yet they exist.

It's possible they exist but the economy is not ready. Humanity is not ready.

I am saying the future is here it is just not evenly distributed.

 

[Drvladivostok]

people say the age of AI utopia and abundance is coming.

like all utopian myths and dreams it seems feasible until the demon of malthus starts coming to haunt and break the myth.

population grows exponentially but production does not.

so ai and robot production cannot meet every demand of an exponentially growing population

then we are back at square 1, people doing shit jobs that should be obsolete and replaced by robots.

Yeah Malthus was wrong and I don't think you're applying his theory correctly. He said Food and consummables does not grow geometrically, since it will always be limited by land.

This is wrong because with the industrial revolution we saw that with the advent of technology like fertilizers, mechanised farming equipments, and GMOs food and resource production can easily grow with any speed.

People also will breed (succesfully) relative to the resource which allows them to, the explosion in population in the early industrial age is due to the advances in medical science and the food beings available.

Starvations are occurance which are sporadic in nature, food supply immidiately drops because of a factor, there is never a trend towards starvations.

But this does not mean AI paradise will occur. Mainly because the disutility of human labor via AI would destroy any demand for it.

The lower and mid-lower classes that will eventually become jobless and is only kept alive by the handouts of tech-giants and government subsidies, will degenerate in their human potential, Most, without any options will become mindless slaves and human word-regurgitators for the ruling class.

Many more will descend to criminality and deterioration of any human value as they're not able to invest their time in anything productive, eventually a branch of the elite class will probably gain these dissenting voice and wage an open rebellion against the tech and AI trillionares.

"Modernity Has Fallen, Billions must Die." Bang bang, motherfuckers.

This is our coming century, if AI is not kept at a leash.

 

[threeStepfourStep]

In general I’d say that current AI technology is overhyped as people overestimate what it is capable of out of not understanding the technology or how it works. Of course we should expect more developments as the century unfolds however.

I'm in the same boat. I think the current AI boom, for the economy will last like at max 2 decades. I think after that we'll have trouble finding growth engines in general and economy as a society will stagnate.

To clarify I think AI will have society changing impacts, but in regards to how long it will impact the growth of the economy, I don't think it would last that long. I think politically, we'll move towards a society where welfare programs are much more comprehensive and a little less darwinian. The wild west of capitalism and competition are slowing down. If markets around the world are like frontiers in some new territory, we've pretty much opened up and explored most markets, and we're becoming closer to understanding the relationship between power/politics and economics.

If generational cultural trends are any indication, I think we'll have a wave of romanticism after the peak of the information age. German idealism was replaced by German romanticism (Goethe and the like), so I think the highly analytical cultural pendulum will swing the other way.

 

[fluffy]

"idealism"
"romanticism"

My life kind of is into those two extremes.

So it's not like the entire system will go one way or the other but that it's more like people will have preferences.

In 2007 - I thought, if only I had money I could do what I want, read the books I want, higher people to help me get my projects done.

The same is now.

But I am not longer 20 years old and I understand things in a different context.

The immediacy is no longer there, as I do know that I just need to buy stuff I need.

I had lots of stress being alone and not knowing how to do things. Today it's easier.

Math and science make sense now that I can see the direction I need to take. I don't need anyone to teach me the basics I just need books. Then maybe with what I know I can get those projects done in only a few years.

The cognitive constraints I had were just a lack of time for development but I have grown to the point I can direct my own progress.

With real resources available and the ability to get them and know how to use them I can do what I want which hasn't been the case a long time.

 

[sushi]

Who is saying this?

Mostly I hear about how AI is going wrong (like this thread). The pro-AI people I talk to tend to appreciate the memes or what it can do for them personally, but I don't hear anyone talking about an age of utopia and abundance anymore.

Also population growth is slowing or reversing in a large chunk of the world.

bill gates and tech prediction guru

he says we will have 3 day workweek and ai will replace doctors

still malthus is unbeatable unless humans stop procreating.

 

[sushi]

the best outcome is probably like asimov novel,

three laws of robotics and spacers.

 

[Hadoblado]

I don't trust billionaires. Not just because they're out to sell you something. By nature of being so powerful, they attract people that tell them what they want to hear. They're generally going to be smart people, but they're in an inescapable bubble.

 

[Cognisant]

AI is still very new, it's like computers in the 70s, we're still waiting on the AI equivalent of what the internet was for computing.

Personally I see that being the intersection of AI, quantum computing and biotech to create custom drugs, retroviruses and genetically engineer new lifeforms.

Replacement organs are going to be a huge industry.