investing and stuff

[sushi]

anyone investing in stock market and stuff?

what news and tips predictions do you have

 

[birdsnestfern]

No, we used to have our retirement funds in different mutual funds, some were safe and steady but small increases and others were volatile, risky, made larger amounts of money but then had sprees of losing it all too. Diversify. Have most of your money in the safe funds and some in the risky ones. Decide how much you can afford to lose, ie, will it make you mad to lose 500? Or 3000? Only put down what you don't mind losing and look for mutual funds and diversify. If you have a favorite company, and you know what time of year they do high sales, you can buy and sell. But I do not recommend stocks usually, you are better off putting it in savings or cds.

 

[Hourglass]

I’ve heard of two different approaches:

One where one analyzes everything and anything and makes a prediction

…And another where one throws a dart into a big list of options and the one the dart hits is the one picked

Both will likely result in the same outcome.

I am not advising to do or not
do either of these approaches - just a point of view.

 

[dr froyd]

we're in a bit of a strange scenario right now

- inflation subsided from the extreme levels but unclear where it's going from here. Although it started by a surge in commodity prices and supply-chain issues in 2021, it's unclear whether energy-supply issues have been resolved and whether wage-growth driven inflation will continue to be high.
- interest rates have surged yet tech stocks have performed extremely well – mostly due to AI hype but perhaps also due to capital flows from china to US. It looks a bit like a bubble but bubbles can last for a long time.
- china is in super bad shape and seems to be unable/unwilling to increase debt levels in order to stimulate their way out of it. Their housing market has practically collapsed. I suspect there are big issues with credit there that we don't yet know about.

so it's a bit unclear what to do, but one thing is pretty clear, which is that it's very hard to be bullish stocks due to recession risks and high interest rates.

but i'll make 3 predictions for 1 year from now:
1: china will not do well, and therefore also things that are china-exposed – especially infrastructure-related stuff. For example iron-ore price down 30% and iron-ore miners like Vale down 20%.
2: high LNG demand in europe, which could be good for LNG-shipping stocks. For example CLCO up 20%
3: europe stocks down quite a bit, just due to the combo of high inflation and a stagnating economy. Say, german DAX index down 15%.

bonus prediction: i am not too fond of predicting the bursting of bubbles but i can't see how the AI hype will last, so i think Nasdaq will be down as well (say, 15% to pick a number)

don't take this as investment advice, take it as ramblings of a madman

 

[birdsnestfern]

Also, China just bought a bunch of US companies, you might want to know which ones they are and not buy those:

American Companies That Are No Longer American | Investing Magazine

Many brilliant companies - from {{AAPL}} to {{SBUX}} - have been founded in the United States, starting out as small ventures to become international leaders in their fields. However, the world of business isn’t always as straightforward as it looks. Regardless of how well-rooted a company’s...

za.investing.com

Investing.com - Stock Market Quotes & Financial News

Investing.com offers free real time quotes, portfolio, streaming charts, financial news, live stock market data and more.

www.investing.com

 

[sushi]

i read yahoo finance and motley fool sometimes, but i still havent delved deeply into the topic

 

[Cognisant]

Invest in CogCoin.

 

[Hourglass]

buy high, sell low*

*this is generally non-beneficial advice

 

[ZenRaiden]

The biggest investment is neurological linking called learning.
Creating neurological link is the single most exhausting thing for humans.
But it stays for life.
Unfortunately motherfucking scientist tend to change what is true and not so there is certain half life even to most fundamental knowledge.
Factually though money comes and goes, knowledge and skills tend to stay.
The only thing is that the intersection of money and knowledge is fluctuating in todays world as is access to the knowledge.

 

[dr froyd]

a small industry secret: if you want to replicate warren buffett's returns just invest in boring low-volatility stocks. These tend to be chronically underpriced.

 

[ZenRaiden]

a small industry secret: if you want to replicate warren buffett's returns just invest in boring low-volatility stocks. These tend to be chronically underpriced.

Would you invest in Coca Cola?

 

[dr froyd]

a small industry secret: if you want to replicate warren buffett's returns just invest in boring low-volatility stocks. These tend to be chronically underpriced.

Would you invest in Coca Cola?

i would rather do pepsi, that's a really nice low-volatility stock

also mc donalds

 

[ZenRaiden]

a small industry secret: if you want to replicate warren buffett's returns just invest in boring low-volatility stocks. These tend to be chronically underpriced.

Would you invest in Coca Cola?

i would rather do pepsi, that's a really nice low-volatility stock

also mc donalds

hmmm yeah, certainly will look into it once I got some extra. Thanks.

 

[birdsnestfern]

Medium Risk: Bloomberg, Barclays, Aggregate Index, Mortgage backed securities, corporate bonds
Volatile and Risky: Large Cap stocks, S&P 500
Volatile and Risky: Small Cap Stocks
Volatile and Risky: International Stocks, MSCI Europe, Australasia, Far East, EAFE Index

 

[dr froyd]

risk is tricky stuff. It is not necessarily a problem in itself - if it can be diversified, i.e. if it's to some extent uncorrelated to other things you have in your portfolio. For example you would love to have a risky small cap stock if it has negative correlation to the rest of the market (this is rare though)

problem for example in 2008 was that people vastly overestimated the extent to which mortgage-backed securities contained uncorrelated risk.

 

[birdsnestfern]

Cool, good to know.

And, find out what extra tax filing you have to do in your country.

If you live in the US, on your IRS tax form 1040 they always ask do you own any foreign investments, or did you have any dividends, etc. If you have these, you can end up with very complex tax returns with all the changes in prices and buying and selling of various stocks and also by owning foreign stocks like the International stocks you've got a extra tax reporting as well. So if its your first time owning stocks, keep it as simple as you can by having one or two stocks and not buying and selling too much so it doesn't overwhelm you at tax time. If you have many stocks and buy and sell at various prices, you'll probably have to pay a tax preparer instead. I like to keep life simple and just not have stocks - but at the very least start simple and don't to a lot of transactions until you get the hang of how its all reported.

You may have to report compensation on line 1a of Form 1040, and capital gain or loss on Schedule D (Form 1040), Capital Gains and Losses and Form 8949, Sales and Other Dispositions of Capital Assets when you sell the stock.

https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f1040.pdf

https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f1040sd.pdf

Keep careful records of each stock on this form:

https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f8949.pdf

Foreign Investments form 8938:

https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f8938.pdf

Do I Have to Report Income From Foreign Sources?

If you are a U.S. citizen or resident alien, your income–unless exempt–is subject to U.S. income tax. This includes income that you earned outside the U.S.

www.investopedia.com

Understanding Taxation of Foreign Investments

If you're considering investing globally, you need to know how the U.S. taxes foreign investments and how the foreign tax credit works.

www.investopedia.com

 

[sushi]

intel seems to be a good buy

i used insidemonkey and yahoo finance as financial news source.

 

[Drvladivostok]

You ought to sell any shares before the stock market goes to a further nosedive these days.

 

[fluffy]

You ought to sell any shares before the stock market goes to a further nosedive these days.

I think that bond holding will go up. Giving the federal government of the US extra money because that's what happens in a bear run when people look for security.

Under valued stocks like any stock will go down (because all stocks go down in a bear run) but will not be destroyed so buy them when the bottom hits.

 

[Drvladivostok]

You ought to sell any shares before the stock market goes to a further nosedive these days.

I think that bond holding will go up. Giving the federal government of the US extra money because that's what happens in a bear run when people look for security.

Under valued stocks like any stock will go down (because all stocks go down in a bear run) but will not be destroyed so buy them when the bottom hits.

Bingo, the Price of Gold will also peak in the coming months.
.
What trump is doing is putting the entire economy through Shock Therapy to stimulate a massive Domestic Production in the US by limiting Consumer options, he's trying to plug the $1.2 Trillion Trade deficit and encourage the industrial boom in the early 1900s, so shares in any companies using foreign productions will dive.
.
I'm not sure how the domestic entrepreneur will respond, they have to have faith in the industrial rejuvination of the US, else trump have to implement some sort of 5 year socialist plan to create an American Zaibatsu. When that happens it's greenlight to invest in American Domestic Industry

 

[dr froyd]

im wondering if in a scenario where the crash gets bad enough to start tightening liquidity/financing broadly, everyone holding buttcoin and other cryptocurrencies will suddenly ask themselves: what the fuck is this thing im holding again? Did i pay $60,000 for a hash string?

 

[Hadoblado]

I think in predicting what happens with the tariffs, we need to know what the intention is. Personally, I don't think it makes sense for Trump to be genuinely trying to revitalise the economy. Altruism isn't in his history and the tariffs are so heavy-handed I don't think they're the result of well-intentioned economic expertise. I also don't think America can stick with the tariffs as they are for as long as it takes for whatever protectionist utopia to spring forth (you can't build industries from scratch overnight). No man rules alone, and powerful people won't take kindly to having their fortunes disappear. Trump knows this.

So I think part of the plan is selective alleviation of tariffs to people willing to kiss the ring. People that do will have an incredible advantage over those that don't, and that's who I think is worth investing in.

 

[Cognisant]

His primary business is hotels, which means he's directly affected by the ever diminishing middle class, i.e. the people who can afford to travel and stay in hotels but don't buy holiday homes.

Edit: The media is furiously looking for anything they can use to accuse him of corruption. This isn't like Biden and Hunter, he can't go giving positions to friends and family, they'll be on him like flies on fresh shit.