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- Joined
- Jan 28, 2013

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- 318

im just tired of people posting this on facebook, most of them not even undersatanding the crus of the issue instead babbling about 1/2 > 1/3 because math yaaayy..

1. The fundamental issue i have with the problem is of memory,

suppose i initially chose a door, and then he shows me a goat; now i have to choose again..

now i FORGET what was my original choice; now how do i decide; there is no inherent reason to favour one door over another..

so a mathematical problem which varies depending on how much memory you have.. is just absurd..

2. Yes, when i chose door 1 initially it had a probability of 1/3, assuming all doors are equally likely..

Now, again i have been presented with a choice, which is entirely a new situation; which causes the probability of the first door to become 1/2 as well..

P(door 1 | no door information) = 1/3

P(door 1 | with information of 1 false door) = 1/2

the choice isnt about what you chose before, but whether you want door 1 or 2..

or are you thinking of it as a time series...??

3. Now i take it to 4 doors instead of 3...

applying the solution.. (car in door 1 or 2)

I choose door 1, goat revealed in door 4

I change, I choose door 2, goat revealed in door 3

I change, I choose door 1==correct answer

But if there were only 3 doors, the correct answer is door 2...

The absurdity is just beyond absurd.. So basically it all depends on HOW many doors were there??? rather than how many doors are there now>?

4.

Now if the situation is SLIGHTLY different, the host opens 2 DOORS at a time

I choose door 1, goat revealed in door 4 AND 3

I choose door 2==correct answer

So it just depends on number of decision making nodes... !!!

No wonder this stupid stuff has no mention in any real statistics books, or applicative use of statistics as well..