Declining Civilizations

[Android]

I'm just looking to open discussion on this topic, not make a specific point. This is all theoretical and does not necessarily reflect my views.

Let's say that we don't come up with a viable large-scale alternative to fossil-fuels.. not just for transportation, but also for plastics. Large-scale is the important part. Cost-effective is another, the rich may be okay but not the poor or middle-class. What happens after that?

Do we grasp at what we once had and fight over the resources and technology that remains? Most regions that can be connected by the remaining archaic forms of transportation aren't self-sustaining. The US would have a hard time transporting food from the bread basket both east and west. I know the town, county, and state I live in wouldn't likely be self-sufficient. Should money be invested now in building a fleet of sailing ships, expanding the rail system (should they be steam-engines?), etc? Can technology continue to grow and expand at the same rate without plastics? Do middle-eastern and other oil rich countries or regions become the new world powers (assuming they would stockpile the last of their oil instead of selling it)?

I personally imagine the world falling into chaos, at least for awhile. Disease running rampant because medicine can't be adequately distributed. Starvation (especially in cities and other population dense areas). A "Might is Right" attitude prevailing in regards to distribution of essential resources. Lots of hoarding. The Fracturing of large states into smaller bodies. Regions falling into anarchy (the nasty type). I just don't see humanity being able to adjust quick enough to such a dramatic change in the structure of the world. Perhaps it would be the Malthusian Correction we've been needing.

 

[Artifice Orisit]

Petroleum isn't going to dry up overnight, I reckon as its price increases people will become more accepting of alternative energy sources and world governments will invest in them.

 

[Toad]

Well we have solar, wind, and as soon as people get off their high horses NUCLEAR energy.

As for transportation, I believe we will be either completely electric or hydrogen based by the time we run out of oil.

A question we should be asking is what is going to happen to the middle east after we don't need them anymore.

 

[Artifice Orisit]

A question we should be asking is what is going to happen to the middle east after we don't need them anymore.

Peace, prosperity, freedom, happiness,
shortly followed by complete genocide (or assimilation) as the machine empire (strong AI, Transhumans, whatever) starts assimilating all matter of the earth itself for the sake of increasing productivity & efficiency.

Wow, they just can't get a break can they?

 

[walfin]

Well some petrol engines can easily be converted to run on cooking oil (palm oil whatever).

And more nuclear. Yes. Finally. FFS, it's cleaner than burning that black goo.

We could always go back to walking. And candles. And maybe we'd be fitter if we bought kinetic energy generators powered by bicycle exercise machines to power the computers.

A question we should be asking is what is going to happen to the middle east after we don't need them anymore.

Well, they did survive for centuries before you started needing them.

 

[Android]

The problem with cooking oils, ethanol, etc is that they take away from potential food production. We already produce less food as a world every year than we consume.. stores are already being taxed pretty heavily and all we need is one massive drought for a large-scale famine to hit the world.

Electric cars are not clean energy.. not yet. You have to trace the energy to it's source. Electric cars are largely coal powered.

Nuclear, for all its potential, is and will always be dangerous. I'm fine with it for me, but I'm a little skeptical about my neighbors. It is a power source that requires very heavy regulation. I'm worried about radiation, not bombs btw.

Anyways, I wasn't saying that this it what will happen.. I wanted to ask what if it does? Transportation energy is a more troublesome topic than feeding the power grid. There is no guarantee that a solution will be found.. and it's almost guaranteed that if one is found, it won't be distributed the same way cars are now. Remember, many/most poor folk can't afford a new car.. they buy used ones - unable to buy new cars, unable to afford old fuel - BOOM!

 

[Artifice Orisit]

Nuclear, for all its potential, is and will always be dangerous. I'm fine with it for me, but I'm a little skeptical about my neighbors. It is a power source that requires very heavy regulation. I'm worried about radiation, not bombs btw.

Nowadays it would actually take tremendous amounts of skill to make a nuclear reactor overload, they've been designed to self-shutdown at anything above normal operating temperature. Now I'm not talking about some fancy computer, it's the actual structure of the reactor, at excessive temperatures the control rod mechanism will fail and drop all the control rods straight in.
For a modern nuclear facility to go critical someone would need to climb into the core (this is one way thing) and literally weld the failsafe mechanism in place, it would also need to be a good strong weld.

 

[Toad]

Nuclear power is seriously the way to go. If instead of abandoning it years ago, we improved upon it we would be much better off now.

I think Israel would probably try to take over all of the middle east. Without oil those countries like Iran would have a whole lot less power. Israel would go genocidal on their ass, Old Testament style!

 

[Ulysses]

Nowadays it would actually take tremendous amounts of skill to make a nuclear reactor overload, they've been designed to self-shutdown at anything above normal operating temperature. Now I'm not talking about some fancy computer, it's the actual structure of the reactor, at excessive temperatures the control rod mechanism will fail and drop all the control rods straight in.
For a modern nuclear facility to go critical someone would need to climb into the core (this is one way thing) and literally weld the failsafe mechanism in place, it would also need to be a good strong weld.

Yes, modern reactors are indeed very safe. Disposing of the nuclear waste they produce is problematic, though.

 

[Artifice Orisit]

There's a massive ball of plasma in the sky every day spewing forth radiation, and people are worried about the stuff we can bury in the ground, why?

At one stage the Australian government was going to get some money by storing radioactive waste in one of the central deserts and people were in an uproar about it. Think they failed to realise that even if the facility was a mile across it would still just a pinprick on the map and in an area where nobody goes anyway, as for the local wildlife, it's a fucking desert!

OMG a snake crawled under one of the storage containers, whatever will we do?

It's a snake, this is Australia, we're not going to run out of them.

 

[Toad]

I think when people think "Nuclear" they think of atomic bombs and people getting cancer. But in reality the percentage of people dieing from nuclear meltdowns and radiation poisoning since the first opening of a nuclear power plant is a lot less than people who die in coal mines and oil rigs every year. The storage containers that hold the nuclear waste is extremely secure. They did tests where trains would collide into the containers and they would still hold out. They even did a test where they put the containers up to jet fueled fire. Nuclear energy really is the way to go.

 

[Ogion]

Lake_Karachay
Another example:
Salt_dome_Gorleben was for a few decades the main german testing and researching facility for secure long term storing of radioactive waste. Recently it turned out that it was leaking, badly maintained (due to corruption that wasn't 'noticed')... Problems at Germany's Asse II Nuclear Waste Repository

Just sayin'

Ogion

 

[Ermine]

Actually, more of what they're thinking is Chernobyl.

 

[Toad]

Chernobyl's nuclear reactor was out of date and underfunded.

If we had stopped researching petroleum just because of oil tanker leaks and pollution, where would we be?

No we must not be afraid, we must continue Nuclear energy research and development.

 

[Ogion]

I think we can all agree that modern reactors are a lot safer than Chernobyl or other old reactor types. That's not the point though.
The point is, what do you do with the radioactive waste that has a half-life of sometimes a few dozen thousand years...

Ogion

 

[Toad]

Well, cog said they had a plan to store it in the desert. I don't think there is anything wrong with that. Couldn't we also maybe send it into space? Like into the sun or on some other planet? I mean all the money we would save using nuclear power we could probably afford to do that right? Maybe we can build a storage facility on the moon.

The possibilities are really endless if you think about it.

 

[Ogion]

Uhm. I'm not sure, but you seem to be very sure about nuclear energy being SO much cheaper. (You know that for the moment bringing stuff into space is REALLY expensive?).

Well, cog said they had a plan to store it in the desert. I don't think there is anything wrong with that.

Sorry, but this is just naive. Did you read the Wiki-article about Lake Karachay?

Storing it in the sun or another planet (or just on the moon) would be fine, it's just too expensive and too complicated.
I wonder why we should do such complicated things, when using renewable energies is so easier, cheaper, and cleaner (and renewable)?

Ogion

 

[Toad]

So how come we dont rely solely on these renewable energy resources?

 

[Artifice Orisit]

In the least possible words: they're lame.

Have you ever seen someone try to laugh manically after installing a solar panel?
It's so pitifully sad, just thinking about it makes me want to cry.

 

[Anthile]

So how come we dont rely solely on these renewable energy resources?

Because of lobbyism, stupidity and "it cannot be what is not meant to be" mentality.
If we really wanted solar panels could be much more effective than they are now.



Also: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...el-farm-size-Wales-power-European-cities.html

 

[Razare]

Plastics
The transition away from oil based plastics will be a gradual one in a capitalistic economy. This is because decisions are made on the level of individual companies.

- Oil prices go up
- Plastic prices go up
- Company A is incurring too high of costs on their packaging
- Company A's management decides to look into alternative forms of packaging, such as paper, cardboard, non-oil based plastics, aluminum canning, ect.
- Company A makes its decision based on their cost-benefit analysis

This process happens at every company at different times, the result of which will be lower demand for petroleum products which will also help soften prices for those who are late to switch.

Transportation

Let's assume petroleum and diesel prices spike rapidly and significantly to the point of shutting down most automobile transportation. This could only happen if supply in the future is highly localized, instead of diversified like it is today.

All transported goods would then exact a hefty premium because of the costs incurred to transport those goods. Only rich developed nations would be able to afford those costs, and even then, only the well-off within those nations. Under normal conditions the economy would develop alternate transportation before this disaster occurred, but if it occurred like we are assuming, then much of the world would descend into anarchy. Order could probably be maintained in most developed nations, but hunger-riots would break out in much of the world and governments would be overthrown. People would starve and die, and the world would find a new balance and eventually develop new transportation methods that do not require oil.

The thing is this scenario is highly improbable. There are many methods of transportation that would not require oil that the economy could switch to within a decade. There are natural gas engines for semi-trucks. A similar engine could probably be used for trains no doubt. Large ships? Steam or even nuclear if we became desperate enough. As for small road transport we already have alternatives. If oil spikes, it just makes the alternatives make economic sense and we switch to those.

 

[Jordan~]

I always decline civilisations. I get so many offers, but, "No, no, no," I say; "I'm just too busy."

 

[Android]

I always decline civilisations. I get so many offers, but, "No, no, no," I say; "I'm just too busy."

My first real LOL experience in recent memory. . That's also my typical response to civilization.. I will admit I'm somewhat of a closet primitivist. Growing up being fed on poached deer and potatoes has definetly had an affect on me. We stopped eating breakfast when we killed the chickens for dinner.

 

[Jordan~]

I'm a romanticist. It maybe comes across in my poems. One might expect that this would come into conflict with transhumanism, but I disagree - the best thing for nature is the total removal of mankind from its sphere, and the best way to do that is to transcend our reliance on nature.

 

[Devercia]

Have you ever seen someone try to laugh manically after installing a solar panel?
It's so pitifully sad, just thinking about it makes me want to cry.

Bill Nye?

Not quite a solar panal but its close. FF>> to 1:18
YouTube- Bill Nye The Science Guy on The Sun (Full Clip)

 

[Citizen X]

A question we should be asking is what is going to happen to the middle east after we don't need them anymore.

In countries like Afghanistan young children build fully functional Kalashnikovs with their own, bare hands.

These "backward ragheads", like many people call them, are tougher than most of the frail Western people. You can't kill them. They have survived gods know how many foreign invasions and cruelties and they will survive whatever that comes next.

 

[Citizen X]

Anyways, I wasn't saying that this it what will happen.. I wanted to ask what if it does?

Take a long look at the Rwanda genocide. You can expect something much, much, worse than that. No well organized systematic killing of people, but full blown, primitive savagery.

When civilization goes out the window, so does civility.

So let's concentrate in finding ways for this NOT to happen, mmkay?

The good thing about the future, though, is that it never is like what we imagine, so things might not be that bad at all. But who knows...

 

[EditorOne]

Alternative energy becomes more feasible as oil declines in easy availability. All the "easy" oil is going; what's left will be more expensive to recover. When it is more expensive to use oil than install solar panels, people will go for solar panels -- they are already being used extensively. There's a kiosk at a shopping mall in Germany where people can bring their electric-powered skooters and recharge them for free when they shop. How cool is that? It's a loss leader to attract green shoppers, for crying out loud.

Nuclear. Everybody talked about nuclear waste, nobody talked about the cost of assembling viable fuel. Same thing with coal, there's lots left but it's not available at the same low costs as it was historically. And the value of the remaining coal in terms of BTUs is also less. All the good, easy coal has been mined.

Everyone overlooked geothermal. It is attractive for lots of reasons, but partly because it uses the existing power distribution grid. Utilities are already moving electricity vast distances.

If there's not a crisis, change will move forward and in 50 years we'll wonder what all the fuss was. We went from a horse-powered economy to a gasoline-powered economy in about that same amount of time; we can't imagine now what it was like when there were no automobiles, and people then could not imagine what life would be like without millions of horses.

Remember, it's not the strongest or smartest who necessarily come out ahead when things are changing. It's the most adaptable. I know this is so, because I saw it on a bumper sticker.....

 

[Kuu]

Solar is the way to go. It might be less efficient than nuclear, but it's way cheaper, no residue issues, and best of all, easier to deploy and maintain.

If I had the money I could buy a bunch of PV panels and get my house completely off the grid... in a couple weeks. A nuclear power plant would have to go through a huge bureaucratic process for several years, and that's before it even starts construction. It is expensive to build, and to maintain, and the fuel itself is expensive too.

On the other hand, solar panels allow for decentralization, even autonomy, of energy production. No more grid, grid repairs, grid extensions (and materials and time lost in its construction.. imagine saving all that money from the miles and miles of cable and metal for the power lines), no more blackouts, or losses because of long distances.... (geothermal, being centralized, also has these issues).

If a nuclear reactor malfunctions and needs to shut down, millions of people would go without energy for days until the issue is resolved (if it is at all). If a solar panel on your roof malfunctions, you could call a repair guy, or go to a hardware store and buy a new one.

They're also portable, modular, and useful for a larger spectrum of needs: tiny applications like calculators, all the way to very large buildings and factories.

Solar is the future. Nuclear is a niche for submarines and deep space exploration...

 

[Invoke Ninja's True Power]

Solar is the way to go. It might be less efficient than nuclear, but it's way cheaper, no residue issues, and best of all, easier to deploy and maintain.

Plants use solar energy efficiently, I'm willing to bet there's a way to make technology based on plant utilization of solar energy that will be developed in the near to not-so-near future further improving the efficiency of solar energy....true green technology

I personally don't think humans are meant to be one with nature. nature is a living tool to be used, but as a life form deserves respect