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Forum Mafia Game #2

redbaron

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I think you misunderstand. If someone reveals as Cop, the rest of the Town have no reason to also reveal as Cop, unless they are Cop. So if one person reveals as Cop and no one says anything about it, it can pretty much be assumed they are the Cop. If two people claim Cop, you know one is and one isn't. If three claim Cop, two aren't and one is. It's not hard to figure out. Yes, you'd eliminate a Cop to get a mafia; or in the case of only the Cop claiming Cop, you'd at least know some 100% reads before they get killed. Or in the case that the Doc is still alive and the RB dead, Cop has free reign to rally the rest of town around a baseline of 100% accurate reads.

Anyway, I forgot about RB essentially. My bad, whatever. People can read into that if they want. I don't really care, that's the truth, whether they like it or not or don't believe me.

No, I get it.

My point is, it doesn't need to be brought up this early and it detracts from proper discussion.

The thing is that you're not really wrong about any of it and it's strategically sound. You being not wrong makes me also think you're not mafia because you'd have no reason to share this stuff with us. You're eager to share this stuff and that's fine, but it's actually better saved for when it's useful.

You're not wrong and I think you're not mafia because of it. Just focus on hunting scum and/or finding town at this point.
 

Reluctantly

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Funny, because Gopher, Hado, and RB are the least ambiguous reads I've gotten so far. They said SOOO much that it's almost unbelievable that you're suggesting that. Sure, some people might think they are ambiguous, but I seriously doubt their Townness is in serious question at this point.

But you can keep trying to change the subject because I'll just repeat myself

I repeat again

You got on Red Baron for going after lurkers over going after active players. Then you used Helvete doing the same to suggest that he's mafia.

I'm asking you, as I have already, more than once, to tell me why going after active players and leaving lurkers alone is wise for town.​
 
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awkward moment when you dont even know what "tell" you gave or what kind of morphing question is this.
just because YOU read people a certain way, doesnt mean i have to too. talking too much does not tell anything in and of itself, especially in RB's case.
what. active. players. am. i. going. after? i got on rb because according to MY reads, he is only picking 3 lurkers(bronto doesnt count) out of many others. gopher also echoed that thought so apparently i wasnt being weird.

anyway im done with pointless mental gymnastics and im going out now, so feel free to get people to follow your recommendation as much as you want. good luck in next rounds, town. kthxbai
 

The Gopher

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Oh not back yet but basically Reluctantly is saying you're doing the same thing you accused RB of.
 

Reluctantly

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You simply refuse to address this. This and only this is why I vote you and why I suspect you. You REFUSE to address this alone. REFUSE. Everything else is irrelevent. This is what matters to me.

You got on Red Baron for going after lurkers over going after active players. Then you used Helvete doing the same to suggest that he's mafia.

I'm asking you, as I have already, more than once, to tell me why going after active players and leaving lurkers alone is wise for town.​

Address it or you're mafia. It's simple.
 

Reluctantly

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Oh not back yet but basically Reluctantly is saying you're doing the same thing you accused RB of.

No. She is effectively, but that's beside the point and doesn't matter because she didn't read Helvete as a lurker to begin with. Word games...

What she won't answer to is why she used a criteria of going after lurkers as implicating someone as mafia. She won't answer it. I've raised it several times now and nothing, just nothing. She does try and change the subject and pretend not to understand. Very convenient. It's not that complicated.
 

Reluctantly

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awkward moment when you dont even know what "tell" you gave or what kind of morphing question is this.
just because YOU read people a certain way, doesnt mean i have to too. talking too much does not tell anything in and of itself, especially in RB's case.
what. active. players. am. i. going. after? i got on rb because according to MY reads, he is only picking 3 lurkers(bronto doesnt count) out of many others. gopher also echoed that thought so apparently i wasnt being weird.

My tell is that you won't explain how going after lurkers makes someone mafia.

And I'm not saying people that post alot can't be mafia. But RB, Hado, and Gopher have said so much and not revealed a tell I could see at this point, that it's much safer to assume they are town over anyone else. And I never said you go after active players; what does that have to do with anything? How you twist meaning is incredible.

anyway im done with pointless mental gymnastics and im going out now, so feel free to get people to follow your recommendation as much as you want. good luck in next rounds, town. kthxbai

you could just address my concern. This isn't helping remove my suspicion at all.
 

Sinny91

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Zerk, why is it that Jenny was your 'Jest Vote' at the beginning of the game (Post 5), and then happened to be one of your main concerns from the start as well... Were you just trolling her the time?
 
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Heh. No wonder I didn't understand your question. I never made that criteria to begin with. Link me to the posts where I made it i would love to see where I said that :ahh:
No. She is effectively, but that's beside the point and doesn't matter because she didn't read Helvete as a lurker to begin with. Word games...
Yes I did? What makes you say this?
Case in point: the criteria you claim i made, is non existent because the people I've expressed suspicion towards(jenny and helvete) i have already described as lurkers. And they're not after anyone in particular either. What even. I already stated what my criteria is for day 1, pressure people I read as hardcore null. That's like the only criteria i actually openly stated

Like i said I'm going out now so I'll be cut off internet. If you decide im mafia then whatever. I won't pursue this conversation with you anymore.
 
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Zerk, why is it that Jenny was your 'Jest Vote' at the beginning of the game (Post 5), and then happened to be one of your main concerns from the start as well... Were you just trolling her the time?
Ofcourse not
I was bussing my scum partner lmao
 

Sinny91

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Happy was literally talking nonsense at the start, and claims it was to help get discussion going.. But why set the example with chatting speculative nonsense?

I have doubts about PmjPmj, he originally cast his vote on me for laughs and jokes, but then, much like in the footsteps of Zerk (with Jenny), went on to hold me under suspicion for some time... reason being that 'I'm authoritarian'. He entered the thread with confidence and humor but has slinkered off since.. I know he says he's busy, but that didn't stop him spending a hour or two exploring alien and UFO stuff else where yesterday. (Under the bus mate, sorry).

I'm not happy with all of Hado's "I've got lots to say but I'm not saying it now" attitude. Give's him lots of wriggle room. I do read you as Town these last few pages, but you need to be as transparent as everybody else. No privileges.

Oh, and about my previous list being useless, two things:

1) It was early in the game.
2) I know it was useless, I wouldn't have offered it, save for Gopher requesting it.

Once again, I can't provide goods I don't got. 

Finally, I can actually read, retain and format information on this laptop.
 

Reluctantly

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wow aint RB's post full of shit? "hey guys i suspect gopher but i wont do anything about it until these 4 talk" and then lists a hopeless inactive case among the 4

RB was focused on the lurkers. But you found that suspicious.

-also helvete prefers a lurker mislynch rather than an active mislynch...which i find weird becuase, save for bronto, i think everyone's shown readiness to get involved. i dont think we need to worry about bronto, QT will get him modkilled or replaced if he remains inactive. but other than bronto, everyone expressed readiness to answer other people's questions when theyre free...i guess this is a very weak point but just putting it out there

Again, Helvete also wants to aim at lurkers. But you've found this suspicious.


Why is that suspicious? You're the only person to find Townies including lurkers and aiming at them as suspicious.

I'm just asking for an explanation to the peculiar criteria.
 

The Gopher

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I'll start posting longer posts but less often to give people breathing room.

I don't actually like the Reluctantly wagon....

You know I don't disagree with any of this. I most importantly I can't find underlying reasons for his actions that aren't mostly town or mildly wifom at best.

Anyway, I forgot about RB essentially. My bad, whatever. People can read into that if they want. I don't really care, that's the truth, whether they like it or not or don't believe me.

This is another reason. Simply forgetting the RB (role blocker not RB) exists came across as natural and I doubt mafia would forget that RB exists.

I'm not convinced he's after the right person in zerk but it's not like I can talk because I knew in the pre-game I would never be able to read her and it's held true so far... personally I would be more after happy or helvete or sinny. All people that despite everything I'm uncomfortable about.

(also when I talk about people I can read I don't mean day one I can read and know exactly what side someone is what I mean is I can look at their posts and come to not wifom conclusions about them, if I'm right or not doesn't come into it just if it's seemingly clear or not to me.)

Specifically Happy has passed last night this morning all day and it's now bed time in Australia (for normal people who sleep before midnight) Without so much as a squeak. Helvete and sinny have posted and while they've been easy posts and Sinny seems to flip flop on hado a lot this game it's far better than happy.

Basically this never happened (see quote below) an entire weekend day went passed and none of my questions have been answered. Also I seem to be the only one really talking about him which means that he might be someone mafia don't want to talk about. (aka part of the scum team) Now it does suck if he's legit busy but even then I prefer Helv and Sinny who talk over Happy who doesn't.

Of course it's lazy scum hunting. I already addressed that. I haven't had an opportunity to sit down and analyse yet (I've had a bunch of projects dumped on me at work this week and more to come. With so much on my mind, I haven't exactly had the mental capacity to analyse this). The weekend is here though.

You've also just asked a lot of questions, so let me think on them and I will respond to you later tonight. I have 10% battery and I'm about to begin my second commute for this evening. Need to conserve battery. Will respond properly once I get back to my iPad in a couple hours.
 

Sinny91

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"Easy posts", I don't see how you want me to make them difficult.
 

The Gopher

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Actually you're like. The best out of the ones I listed Helv and Happy (and better than PMJ and technically Cheese and Jenny) just... IT JUST FEELS OFF MAN! IT FEELS OFF!

Intuition maybe.

While I'm not after hado today in order to get a better read on you it'll be good to know why your read on hado has changed from scum to town.
 

Sinny91

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If it helps, I feel a bit off myself.. Have been trying to place my finger on my mood.

Maybe it's spilling over, idk.

I'll be leaving laptop in about 10 minutes, I will be back on mobile up till 9pm, then I'm at work till the small hours. Drunk Sinny might make an appearance, and so you can get acquainted with her.

You know what they say about drunk folk..
 

Sinny91

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Oh, and on Hado, literally just the change in his tone, the helpfulness I have found in him since the change of tone, and the overt attempt at easing my worries about him in particular. He's been constructive... He's either really invested in our particular relationship from a mafia point of view, or a townie point of view... I assume to Townie to be more likely. Mafia Hado would want chaos, and would love involving me in it. I think.
 

Jennywocky

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And still need to hear from

Happy
Jenny
Cheeseums
Helvete

Geeez. And what did you want to hear about again? I've lost it in a number of PAGES (not posts, but PAGES, and I have my pages set to max post count) that got posted after I went to bed. I came on the site after I showered and still haven't finished reading the thread, but I might as well make this post now, since it's about all the same to me.

You guys know I almost bailed due to time constraints, until I was told that I could actually post periodically rather than feeling like I had to be here all the time and deeply analyze each post and provide responses. When I was awake, I was popping in and providing feedback and interaction as I could. It's not my fault a lot of the activity seems to be happening while I'm asleep.

I also informed everyone I'd be out much of today due to family events that were scheduled weeks ago, and wouldn't be home again until three hours before end of Day, which happens at 3am for me. So I'm rushing the clock right now before I have to leave.

And then, dear sweet baby jesus, I have to deal with ;tldr; from our resident three most actives, who not only post a lot but much of it is confusing to read and understand. Seriously, guys? On Day 1? So close to lynch time? I do see you've dropped it by now, but of course I didn't know that until I had to try to hip-wade through a bunch of that stuff, some of which ended up being red herrings and none of which sticks in my head at the moment. I guess it doesn't matter, you said you would drop those logics until Day 2, but... it just reminds me of the arguments that go on elsewhere on the forum that I typically skim through and never engage due to the time investment needed. Your intellects are dizzying.

Anyway, sorry for dumping momentarily. I know analysis is necessary. I'm just feeling the crunch again. Every period of silence gets you called on the carpet for somehow missing something. I need a flowchart to follow this. This game IS actually a full-time endeavor since we've got members scattered all over the world, and I'm not sure where people get the energy to produce this much text. I just didn't understand until I joined. I will do my best to keep up with everything.

;tldr [jenny performs her typical whining, to clear her head]

@Gopher: I noticed somewhere in there you quizzed me on my vote for Happy. yeah, I was pretty clear about my initial vote being just a shit vote because everyone was voting, and I expected to change it. Then I left it on him for extra incentive to participate. But... I don't see anything from him yet??? Now I'm unsure of what to do -- pull a vote off a guy who hasn't engaged at all and is a big red question mark, or try to calculate the best odds of someone else who HAS been engaging who is somehow more deserving.

@reluctantly: I will read back through your posts and see if I missed some specific questions from you. Obviously your post here easily caught my eye because it was very short, so I'll mentioning it now.

... and now, onwards to the end of the thread! Wheeeee!!! Be back shortly.
 

QuickTwist

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ATTENTION:

Blarraun is replacing Cheeseumpuffs.
 

The Gopher

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Yeah don't panic too much Jenny we should be aware of the time issues which is why I haven't focused too much on you or Cheese. I'm full time so you don't have to be. :P

Thanks for the Happy explanation. I figured as much I just wanted to make sure you knew it was on there going into lynch time.

I'm gonna head to bed or at least attempt rest because it's 15 and a half hours til eod and it's more important that I'm awake on the other side.

3 Am 15 hours left.
4 14
5 13
6 12
7 11
8 10
9 9
10 8
11 7

Hmm I'll set my alarm for 10 am AEST that way I have about 8 hours of sleep and about 8 hours of lynch voting. See you all tomorrow don't kill anyone before I get back. Or do if it's happy and he hasn't posted still.
 

Helvete

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actually never mind i dont have the patience nor time to do post by post analysis of helvete :/ but anyway i'll make my points:
-what i dont like about helvete is that so far he comes across as very null and im inclined to write that off as a scum-leaning read
-says he doesnt like people posting their lists, as mafia could take advantage, but is also responsible(sometimes directly, sometimes indirectly) for the pressure that made most players so far produce their lists
-if you look through helvete's filter it's very difficult to even come up with questions because he has generated no input himself so far. i think it's quite abnormal for town to not openly express distrust towards atleast one player. all he's done so far that comes close to that is exerting very soft pressure on happy in like...the first few posts
-also helvete prefers a lurker mislynch rather than an active mislynch...which i find weird becuase, save for bronto, i think everyone's shown readiness to get involved. i dont think we need to worry about bronto, QT will get him modkilled or replaced if he remains inactive. but other than bronto, everyone expressed readiness to answer other people's questions when theyre free...i guess this is a very weak point but just putting it out there



ok i guess i need to ask you questions then to make you talk
who are your main suspects so far and why?
what did you look to gain from asking happy about my stance on lynching? hado answered this but you didnt
why a lurker mislynch? wouldnt that generate zero input for us for the next game? and anyway what lurker do you have in mind for a lynch?

also i want to apologise to urakro i think i was being an ass to u so far

I'm playing cautious, my mafia reads were way off last game.



Pls show me how I've influenced lists?

Why is the lurker lynch weird? Also bronto isn't the only lurker dispite what the others say. Happy is very red right now.
I'll elaborate more tomorrow, I'm posting as I can't sleep...
 

Jennywocky

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Ya know, I REALLLLY hate being in the "off-time" of the game. I miss all the conversation flow, end up playing clean-up, and anything I want to mention already seems discussed.

@Helvete, I read your post from last night. That'll do for now. I can identity with the logic expressed there, you come across as reasonable to a fault and with too many options currently on the board, that's okay. I also don't think a lurker lynch is a bad thing, in lieu of a stronger read off anyone else. I think if we have a SOLID non-lurker read on someone, then we should go for it; if not, then the lurker snipe (i.e., targeting someone with little/no investment) has better odds to catch scum.

@Reluctantly, I did not find specific questions for me. So general questions? I'm focusing on this as Day 1; I'm not looking to make very specific, very excruciating cases for anyone in this phase. I'm assessing the group dynamics and getting a general feel for people. That's how I roll in general (look at my forum participation), I start fuzzy and then hone my way in over time, it's a matter of energy conservation and also too many options / not having yet enough data to work with. AKA it's more like an Thumbs Up / Thumbs Down for me right now, versus having some kind of intricate case against a particular individual.

Yeah, I know this can make me look non-committal. It seems like certain kinds of people thrive in games like this and others do not... I've having to work against the grain here unfortunately. I typically need to sit back and let things gel big-picture before having strong conclusions about anything, versus a prober who makes things happen; I feel like anything I have to say prematurely is just too fuzzy to be of use. But I'm trying. Please, if people have specific advice or questions for me, I am totally willing to answer as I work on developing my interaction skills here.

@Urakro: I am totes on board to create more structure in the Day format, especially with them lasting SO freaking long. I feel like we should have been gelling on this thing by now, honestly. So let's break up the day format; i think we will be far more constructive.

Back to "Thumbs Down" things I've observed:

- Zerk, why do you keep up with the kneejerk responses (doorslamming conversation) and the logic that just seems to jump all over the place? I just don't get it. On one hand, it can come off with just frustration at not being able to explain yourself; OTOH, it's like a smokescreen of sorts so that people can't get a bead on you. I'm trying to clear you as Town but you keep acting in counter-productive ways; every time you get pushed, you just seem to respond in a more confusing manner.

- Happy (my target lurker) remains a big red question mark. With everyone else not reading as obvious scum, clearing off the board a bit is a viable course of action.

- I don't like people who lean on horns. Zerk screaming about Bronto endlessly is one of those things. Reluctantly, your leaning on the Cop thing is another. It comes across as off-balance to me and makes me question your motives. Once is good, twice if it's been a while and there is no response... But that's my largest beef with you at the moment; you've been slugging away with everyone else on Day 1, so I'm currently chalking it up as "well-intentioned."

- The Dustcloud of Gopher, Hado, and RB, another brief comment on this: No idea what to make of it. Some people read it as Town. I honestly don't know what to think. My beef is that it's a type of engagement that will impress some people, if it aligns with their a priori expectations for how things should be communicated and argued - and thus no wonder that on an INTP forum, that kind of intense point-by-point rebuttal and hashing things out endlessly will go over well. We see it on the forum regularly. To me, though, it mostly came off as noise and signified little except maybe as attempts at self-branding ("Look, I'm Town! And look, I'm doing something! So you can clearly not drink the wine in front of me!") Big picture, remember? I think those kinds of arguments in later days are more useful (plus will be built on actual evidence), so I'm glad they are being saved until then so as to not be a distraction.

[Everyone got to comment on it while I was asleep -- so here are my comments on it now, late, that I'm awake. I'm worried about false-reading someone or giving someone a free pass just because of a bias in expectations here.]

- Also, one more brief "BLARRRGGG!" since I missed all the fun last night -- man, Hado, you know you tend to assert yourself authoritatively even when you think you are standing back? Even dictating later who needs to fight among themselves now because by your own standards, you've now cleared yourself in some way? I'm glad some people called you on it, because that's how I felt when reading it -- I follow your logic, but you're just another player in the game, not anyone with preordained control. I appreciate that this got resolved and you authentically stepping back a bit to give Urk and the rest of us chances to invest; I think as a team we're going to get a LOT farther than if some hierarchical power structure is imposed because "with great self-assigned power comes great suspicion."


---

There is more I could say, but I beyond out of time. I will be on cell throughout the day, and can check in. If I need to switch my Happy vote, I will. As of now, he's still one of my two top picks due to his lack of engagement.

I gotta start driving.
 

Urakro

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Ok, here's something weird...

Cheeseums didn't have to be replaced like that if he was town. I'm guessing he felt really bad about being mafia and not being able to contribute. I tried to convince him to stay, saying that this game is going to go on for a long while. And I forget if I actually said this specifically, but my thoughts right now is that I think he would have left if he was mafia because lurking as mafia is a shitty thing to do.

Also, I really don't like the idea of being trolled by Blaurran the whole game. :phear:
 

Urakro

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Also reluctantly:

Oh my, what a change of character. :D
 

Ex-User (9086)

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*Moves in town*
3 post in 24 hours seems like a lot, I'll try to manage with what time I have. Seriously, there's so much activity and I can't read it all, well whatevs.

There were two very active dynamics going on, first was Jenny Zerkalo Helvete and Urakro and the second was RB Hado and Gopher.

In both cases it seemed as if one scum picked a target to argue with in order to increase their own credibility and create more confusion. For now I'd say Jenny and Zerkalo are goodies based on Jenny's inactivity and odds of Zerkalo being mafia twice.

Jenny still could be mafia alright, but I wouldn't expect as much commitment from her after she had something urgent if she were mafia, because well it wouldn't be necessary and she might've expected to leave it to someone else to secure their false identity, also I think the enjoyment of the game would outweigh the decision to resign in the latter case.

I also find it very likely scum would vote each other at the beginning to deny any sort of connection.

Out of those two dynamics I suspect there were at least one and max 2 scum involved, so out of 7 folk the two most likely to be scum right now would be Urakro and Helvete, though I will have to see how RB/Goph behave to judge them more accurately since they should be aware that continuing their punches right now is detrimental for the town. Anyway it's nice that someone confronted them about it, but it's also a problem because it gives scum the chance to fix their strategy so confronting them is only useful if one has a followup probe after saying 'check'.

So yeah, I think we've lost an opportunity after telling RB/Goph to stop unless they were both fighting and forgetting about their objectives, which might happen given their animosity elsewhere on the forum.

I'm probably going to vote Urakro given how he's been very active which either means he's really enjoying this stuff, or he's mafia and he's especially enjoying himself. Besides his high activity I think he hasn't been productive enough to warrant all his theorising and dancing around. This brings me to Zerkalo, she's eyeing Urakro, if it weren't for my statistical bias in assuming that the odds of her becoming a baddie twice would be much lower, I'd view them both as candidates.

...About the cop, I think if the town experience is high revealing the cop and hiding is similarly viable, if the cop feels confident and thinks town will mess things up I'd say cop should stay hidden. Also fake cop that would be fun, or having 3 groups each fighting in a triangle, that would make the game wonderfully complicated, maybe too complicated, well that's something for the future suggestions perhaps, end of digression.
 

Ex-User (9086)

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Also, I really don't like the idea of being trolled by Blaurran the whole game. :phear:
Curious, how's that and why do you think that?
I think we have some affinity for understanding each other's points so I assume you don't mean I will distract you in a negative way?
 

redbaron

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Bed time for me. Will be back with at least four hours to spare before EOD.
 

Urakro

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@Blaurran

Alright, here's the thing. You and I don't understand each other very well. We both are opposites, and work in different ways.

I had a gut feeling you'd go right after me the moment I seen QT's notification about cheese. Though I think a town Blaurran would have just let all this slide and work with this crazy dynamic later. But instead, you aimed your sights right on me, probably with the gut feeling that I might have distaste for you and I might be a problem.

So if you were mafia, then we'd both be intimidated by each other. But since you want to try and work a case against me, and we both can't be slinging at each other at the same time, then start questioning me first and when satisfied, I'll start questioning you. Or if you want it the other way around, fine, but there's not very much I really could ask of you as you just started.
 
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hey im back. reading my lasts posts again is kinda painful. im sorry @ everyone and reluctantly in particular for my childish/unhelpful attitude before...i was annoyed at being repeatedly asked to explain claims/criteria i know i never made.

@reluctantly
now that ive seen the two posts you quoted, i can see how the second one can be misleading due to unavailability of context. i had a specific post by helvete in mind when i wrote that, and it was really dumb of me not to quote it above what i wrote. putting what helvete wrote above what i wrote puts everything back into perspective. i think.

helvete said:
Hado why are you so against lynching bronto today? I would much rather mislynch inactive town than mislynch active town. If they are scum then it forces them to participate and offer more content to slip up on.

zerkalo said:
also helvete prefers a lurker mislynch rather than an active mislynch...which i find weird becuase, save for bronto, i think everyone's shown readiness to get involved. i dont think we need to worry about bronto, QT will get him modkilled or replaced if he remains inactive. but other than bronto, everyone expressed readiness to answer other people's questions when theyre free...i guess this is a very weak point but just putting it out there
just add the word "lurker" after "active" and "inactive", and it fits in with the context of my posting history so far. i have already gone over why lynching bronto is a useless move(see quote below) and bad to town but i'll elaborate in detail now.
zerkalo said:
i was outlining the difference between active lurker, who definitely should be pressured into producing more content, and inactive. basically i was making the same point you're[NOTE: YOU'RE HERE REFERS TO JENNY] making; bronto is a meaningless vote, easy picking to quote you, and he's active on the forum but has shown obvious lack of interest in the game so this is not even like artsu who would continue to check back to avoid modkill. which is why im saying @people who vote bronto to stop pretending their votes are worth shit.

basically, the point i was highlighting against helvete is that bronto is the only inactive lurker. everyone else(ignoring hado, rb and gopher here), regardless of whether or not they've produced much content, has shown up at some point, been pressured, started to voice suspicions, and promised to participate more when theyre free. at that point, i thought bronto's getting modkilled as soon as his first 24 hours are over. didnt know he would get another day as warning...but anyway, my point still stands, that helvete thinking town lynching bronto is a good idea is weird. why? because, say we did what helvete asked for, and a majority agreed on a bronto lynch before he gets modkilled: does this say ANYTHING at all about any of the people who voted bronto? nope. is bronto a consistent detriment to town judgement like artsu was? also no, because he's getting modkilled soon.

mainly i want to highlight two things:
-first, i didnt produce a criteria against lynching inactives, i was just against a bronto lynch in particular. this is a particular case. actually no you can say im against lynching inactive lurkers but bronto is the only such player in the game.
-second, again, my main reason to be against lynching a player who will be modkilled anyway is that it says nothing about the voters. it's a convenient vote and saying it helps town is weak justification imo because reasons above.

anyway i already said in the quote that this is a somewhat weak case against helvete, because helvete said what he said early in the game. he didnt retract his statements about bronto though, and other people also kept bringing up bronto as a candidate for pressuring/lynching which i saw as a weak/meaningless vote. so you can say this point was more general and not against helvete in particular

now about RB:
im not a mind reader, so when RB produces a list like that, and doesn't list you, or sinny, or pmj on it, it's natural for me to find it weird.
first of all, happy is playing exactly the way he played last game. now the weird thing is...RB says he reads pmj as green because he's playing like happy played last game XD why is one excused and the other put on a suspicions list then?
second, why is sinny not there?
third, RB didnt state his reasons for not suspecting you until veryyy recently. in my eyes at that point, you were also not contributing much or pushing for anything.
jenny and cheese were not on the list either. you might say because they were were unavailable, but then again why is bronto there then?
also hado said he reads urakro as town. i dont recall rb saying that himself(im writing from memory so i might be wrong), and i have no reason to think of hado+rb as one unit. so...
 

Ex-User (9086)

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Okay, I know intuitive readings are not very convincing but I totally don't get why you have brought anything personal into this game right now so this makes me even more conscious of you. (If you're serious then please PM me because I'm kind of surprised at your reaction. Also our reactions right now are so similar it's contradicting what you've just said, imo.)

Actually if we both were mafia, we'd be doing exactly what we are doing right now, accusing each other and trying to confuse others. Since I know I'm not mafia and I suspect you all I have to do is convince others I'm a townie and make a solid case against you after I'm confident beyond all doubt that I'm not making a mistake, which is right about now.

Soo let's begin the questioning, what makes you so confident that I'd go after you? Are you a mind reader or a mystic of some sort to know me that well? No, rather I think you've sensed I'm not your meek little townie to be befuddled with your usual tactics and you feel like you need to decrease my credibility right away.

I also see you using reverse-psychology in a lot of your posts, which is an interesting approach where you explain the outcomes of some optimal decisions in order to make the most obvious guesses seem less valid.

Anyway, even though I know what I know I won't go on an offensive against you right now because I still have to respect what others think and have to say, I can't just usurp the decision making process here.

You amigo, are very suspect indeed.
 

Reluctantly

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Okay, thank you. :D

UNVOTE Zerkalo

@Jenny
Thanks. I just needed to hear your own analysis is all. It's enough for me to not think you are mafia at this point.

Ah and Happy. Well he's said the least out of anyone. He needs to say something.
Otherwise,
VOTE Happy
 
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i dont have a read on jenny now...i dont have the gut feeling i had before anymore but then again her inactivity may have made a reading on her extremely difficult. anyway, writing my last post has helped me think more clearly...now im shifting my gears towards RB...rb i would like to see you post more content unrelated to gopher or hado, so i can read you better, before day 1 is over. helvete remains my main suspect.
ok here's why i think helvete is more suspicious than the other "active lurkers" so far:

this is the last day of the first day phase and so far there is absolutely nothing to find in helvete's filter. nothing. all he's done so far is ask persons what they think of persons.
helvete knows content-less game post history equals to mysterious NK or lynch to town. he has interacted with everyone so far(i think?) but put forth no input of his own. his interactions with all the players were similar. this goes against his own declared intention to change play-style in the post-game thread. it's unnatural and definitely worse play than his first game as town. i recall him calling people out in game 1 and actually voting at some points i think. i also remember him making a ballsy but reasonable suggestion that hado and rb's initial attacks on eachother could be just a show. his play in this game so far does not even level to his previous play. and helvete knows it. and it's been pointed out by several people other than me and yet he's still not talking and he dodged that post i made where i asked him questions.
CanIHazMoreHelveteVotes?
 

Reluctantly

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Okay, I'll bite. Why should I vote Helvete over Happy? Happy has said so little, while Helvete though definitely suspicious because he won't participate in reading anything, has at least made some comments that are seemingly Town motivated and help to question people and get what they are thinking on the table. If he is mafia, I'd say he's better to keep in the game over Happy at this point.
 

Urakro

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Actually if we both were mafia, we'd be doing exactly what we are doing right now,

Just a technicality, I didn't say "if we both were mafia". I said :

So if you were mafia, then we'd both be intimidated by each other.

Soo let's begin the questioning, what makes you so confident that I'd go after you?

I had a gut feeling, and it was strong. Gut feelings don't come with confident explanations. But in the case that I'd be right, I didn't see any harm in putting my feelings out. I asked my gut feeling why it was saying the things it did, and I imagined the scenario as outlined.

What I am almost confident about was that cheeseums might have been mafia. Him finding a replacement and "feeling like such a dick", could have stemmed from redbaron and some others stating that it was really shitty for mafia just to lay back and lurk. I think cheese had valid reasons for not being able to play, and couldn't bear with lurking and not being active as mafia.

Are you a mind reader or a mystic of some sort to know me that well? No, rather I think you've sensed I'm not your meek little townie to be befuddled with your usual tactics and you feel like you need to decrease my credibility right away.

That's exactly what I thought.... you aren't a meek little townie to be befuddled with. Not that others are either, it would all depend on my confidence relative to the other person.

That said, my tactics of questioning other people don't have aims. I don't do any 'meta-plan' strategy, I honestly don't know where my questioning is going to lead to. But I have found out that it does stir a stagnant pot, and I do try to lift up valuable information that results from my questioning. I don't plan ahead, I work with what's been given.

My questioning reluctantly had to be the most stupidest case. But I figured if I rile him up enough, he's gonna produce a lot more content. I dunno, I think it worked, but still I'm not completely satisfied. I kinda did the same with gopher, but I did have some real assumptions that I kept secret. Gopher was able to destroy those assumptions, so until I have more, I let gopher off the hook.

I also see you using reverse-psychology in a lot of your posts, which is an interesting approach where you explain the outcomes of some optimal decisions in order to make the most obvious guesses seem less valid.

Um, not intentionally. Once with reluctantly, yes. I've figured I got a standing as town here, using that to my advantage and was seeing if he'd take a bait. But still, I honestly don't know what to expect or what to look for. But that's alright, because at least I'll get something.

You're right, I am befuddling people, but as a town trying to get information. I don't know if it's completely WIFOM, but I've picked someone I want to interrogate, and I try to stick with them and confuse the living hell out of them. (Or try to, I don't know if they actually are). Which is still valuable, they wouldn't be too confused if they were mafia.

Basically I just work with what I'm given. And if that's not enough, I go nuts and unpredictable and see what the results are. Just pushing buttons. [/QUOTE]
 

Sinny91

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I should probably casty vote in the next hour in case after work drunk Sinny, is too drunk to function.

Helvete has caused me concern in his silence, as has Happy. I think I would be comfortable aiding in the lynch of either.

Recent contributions have given me greater insights...
I'm looking forward to day two being far more revealing.
 

Sinny91

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Oh, and I figured out what mood I'm in..

A bad one.

I've got a headache from hell, like my heads been slammed up a brick wall. Not sure if its tension and strain, or the weed. But I hope a stiff drinks fixes it.
 

Urakro

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and odds of Zerkalo being mafia twice.

There is no 'odds' of zerkalo being mafia twice. It's completely irrelevant to the odds that zerkalo was mafia last game, she has the same chance of being mafia as everyone else in this game.
 

Urakro

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But that said, zerkalo's final responses to my questions did score her town points.
 

Reluctantly

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FYI, there's about 12 and a half hours left at the time of posting this.

I don't think it's a good idea not to lynch anyone with Helvete and Happy still being out there as lurkers. I know some people are waiting, but don't forget to pick someone. It'll help progress the game to get a lurker out of the way in the first round and at least give some ammo to go on, as far as voting patterns go.

Got some stuff I want to do today, so I'll probably be back in about 8 hours or so. Might check in from time to time on my phone.
 

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There is no 'odds' of zerkalo being mafia twice. It's completely irrelevant to the odds that zerkalo was mafia last game, she has the same chance of being mafia as everyone else in this game.
Wouldn't you agree that Zerkalo being mafia once is a 3/13 = 23% chance and her being twice is a 3/13 * 3/13 = 5% chance? Comparing it to any other person being mafia on her second game which is a 3/13 * 10/13 = 18% chance it looks as though her being mafia twice is more than 3 times less likely event.
 

Sinny91

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I'm at work as of now

Vote Happy[
 

Urakro

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Wouldn't you agree that Zerkalo being mafia once is a 3/13 = 23% chance and her being twice is a 3/13 * 3/13 = 5% chance? Comparing it to any other person being mafia on her second game which is a 3/13 * 10/13 = 18% chance it looks as though her being mafia twice is more than 3 times less likely event.

Come on, Blaurran. This is basic.

Had neither game yet happened, (this one or the old), and we wanted to figure out zerk's chance of getting mafia twice in a row, then yes, the odds of that are 3/13 * 3/13.

But last game has already happened. It's done. The odds of her being mafia last game is 100%.

We don't know with this game though. Thus it's only 3/13.

I'm 99.99999999999999999999999999999% sure you already know this. Don't make this a pissing match between who's skillz, talentz and and more smart.

I asked that because you as town should have been "Yeah, sorry, my bad. Wasn't fully thinking". That might have convinced me of your townliness.

But instead you're trolling and being fucking weird.
 

Ex-User (9086)

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Come on, Blaurran. This is basic.

Had neither game yet happened, (this one or the old), and we wanted to figure out zerk's chance of getting mafia twice in a row, then yes, the odds of that are 3/13 * 3/13.

But last game has already happened. It's done. The odds of her being mafia last game is 100%.

We don't know with this game though. Thus it's only 3/13.

I'm 99.99999999999999999999999999999% sure you already know this. Don't make this a pissing match between who's skillz, talentz and and more smart.

I asked that because you as town should have been "Yeah, sorry, my bad. Wasn't fully thinking". That might have convinced me of your townliness.

But instead you're trolling and being fucking weird.
I'm laughing at my stupidity right now. I'm familiar with gambler's fallacy and with basic probability but somehow I was following that trail anyway today, I was relying on statistical regularity to explain why Zerk should have more chances, but it's only ever relevant in sufficiently long sequences.

Goes to say that I'm not in a perfectly sharp mental condition today.

Of course you are almost completely right. The drawing isn't entirely independent or random, but it would require thousands of outcomes to conclude any irregularities.

So yeah wasn't trying to show my superiority but now you get a chance to ridicule me if you will. Yup gambler's fallacy, gets you when you least expect it I guess.


I still uphold the notion that you are suspicious because you've turned full hostile on me for no reason and we only interacted like 2-3 times on this forum with no real issues, unless there's something you wish to talk about now. Since you've accused me of trolling right before I joined I don't really feel like I should participate in this game because you've made me feel especially unwelcome.

I'm sorry QT for taking your offer but I really don't feel like playing so you'll have to find a replacement for Cheese all over again.

Sorry for the drama, life goes on, have fun folks.
 

Urakro

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I'm probably going to vote Urakro given how he's been very active which either means he's really enjoying this stuff, or he's mafia and he's especially enjoying himself.

It's not anything personal against you Blaurraun. I tunnelled gopher, zerk, and was starting reluctantly, and I have nothing against them either. I really am just invested in this game. Though it's just a game, and I hope there's no hard feelings.

When I got my role card and it read "Vanilla Town", I was thrilled. I don't think I could have enjoyed this game as much as mafia. I enjoy solving puzzles, and being the detective, and the only puzzle I could really solve as mafia was to figure out who the cop and doctor are.

I am especially enjoying myself. But that doesn't indicate I'm mafia.
 
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:(
Well, game aside...That was a very weird exchange between you two but I don't sense any personal hostility from Urakro towards you. You (blarraun) are a little intimidating, but in a positive way i promise. Maybe Urakro was trying to express that in a jokey way but somehow failed at coming across to you? *shrugs*
 

Urakro

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The way people were questioned last game was harsh though too.

But that said, I do legitimately believe you're mad/confused/hurt about perceived drama, when I did keep it within the context of the game. I may have started out what seems a bit personal, and calling you a 'fucking troll' was uncalled for. Honestly, I don't have that many hard feelings for you, even before this spat. I just thought you'd make a really clever mafia, and the longer you linger, the harder it would be to pin you down.

If you'd still want to leave, that's fine, but I just want you to know that I'm not being completely serious about the personal claims about you. I didn't realize it would poke you that hard. I'm sorry.
 

Jennywocky

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Geez. On cell, reading. Wtf Not sure what happened there. Blarraun is very smart; he was a good addition to town. (And YES i am picturing him as town, as the only main argument I saw against cheeseumpuffs seemed mainly a meta one.) We could have really used him.
 
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Blarraun is very smart

Yes that's what I meant by positively intimidating but was too shy to say :P
#comebackblarraun #</3
Also I was really looking forward to a Urakro grill from you(blarraun), he has become a blind spot player for most of us so it would be nice to have him a little more questioned
 

Urakro

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Exactly. There is no reason to martyr yourself in the game. You always have options available to seem more town, and enjoy the game. I grilled on you really bad, I'm sorry, it was almost psychological warfare.

Though keeping drama aside, I do think I have you checkmated as mafia. And to you, it was extremely unfair, as though we were playing chess and I maliciously cheated.
 
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